1 Guise in 24 hours? no manastone in 32 Hours

[Enme]

Where is the post updating 4 guises dropped in 4 hours? Oh wait that’s not bitching

[Isomorphic]

Originally Posted by Tecmos Deception [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

To be fair, the randomness of P99's RNG IS pretty fucking wonky.

Evidence?

[aaezil]

P99 still uses an old crappy algorithmic psuedorandom number generator not a newfangled good PRNG that looks at external data to create the numbers.

The “pattern” of the p99 prng is indeed streaky and bad has been known for a long time.

[Grimgor]

The problem with this list system is it removes people's ability to camp something a little bit at a time over a long period of time and eventually get one.

It forces you to stay at the camp for days in a row. I'm simply not willing to do that.

[Tecmos Deception]

Originally Posted by Isomorphic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Evidence?

It's everywhere. There are simply too many streaks in all sorts of p99 activities given overall rates. I posted on resist streakiness a month or so ago with data if you care to dig a little, but I'm too lazy to provide the link.

Just a rough example for illustration: if p99 rng controlled coin flips, over the course of 10000 flips you'd see about 5000 heads and about 5000 tails. But you'd probably have 50 streaks of 10 instead of the 10 you should have seen based on 50/50 chances of heads vs tails.

[listur]

So who's going to "/rand 1" 10k times and post the results?

[PabloEdvardo]

Originally Posted by Grimgor [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The problem with this list system is it removes people's ability to camp something a little bit at a time over a long period of time and eventually get one.

It forces you to stay at the camp for days in a row. I'm simply not willing to do that.

That's not even close to true, and quite the opposite.

With the streakiness of the drops, you are actually better off camping it with more cumulative hours, but spread over a greater amount of time.

e.g. if you camp at manastone, log in regularly throughout the week, play for say 4-6 hour shifts, you can eventually (statistically) get lucky where multiple will drop in the same 4-6 hour period, and you can get one.

It's the wanting to get the drop the same time / only time you /list that leads to 30+ hour camps.

[skorge]

How the make the server better:

1. When the assassin spawns with a guise, it should drop 6 guises.
   
2. Manastone should be set to no-drop.
   
3. Rubi BP camp needs it's drop rate increased.

[Isomorphic]

Originally Posted by Tecmos Deception [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It's everywhere. There are simply too many streaks in all sorts of p99 activities given overall rates. I posted on resist streakiness a month or so ago with data if you care to dig a little, but I'm too lazy to provide the link.

Just a rough example for illustration: if p99 rng controlled coin flips, over the course of 10000 flips you'd see about 5000 heads and about 5000 tails. But you'd probably have 50 streaks of 10 instead of the 10 you should have seen based on 50/50 chances of heads vs tails.

Are you saying that in 10000 coin fips the expected value of the number of times you get heads 10 times in a row is 10 but in EQ you will see 50? If so I have a few questions, are you only considering heads or does 10 tails count as one of these streaks. If we get 11 heads in a row does that count as 2 streaks of 10, counting 1-10 and 2-11. What is the variance of this expected value? How are you determining the expected value of this event in the first place?

[Frostback]

Originally Posted by French Wizard [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No you didnt

dial up did not even allow anyone to spend more then 45 mins or an hour doing anything

"I spent 20 hours on Memorial Day weekend 1999 praying to Marr that Najena would appear only to slay elemental after elemental. I got the robe…and then promptly quit playing the game for the majority of the summer. I was burned out.

One weekend I camped the Ancient Cyclops spawn for 24 straight hours. In that time, he appeared once, after 7 hours. It wasn’t my turn to loot. I waited 17 more hours and never saw him again in that time. Powerful as Nenelar is, soloing the Cyclops placeholder for most of that time, I left exhausted and empty-handed.

The next weekend I camped the Arch Ghoul Magi for 20 straight hours. In that time the Magi appeared 8 times, dropping the Shining Metallic Robe twice. I was number 6 on the original loot order. Two ahead of me got their robes while the others gave up early. I camped at the top of the order for 12 hours only seeing the Magi only twice. On both occasions he had only silversilk leggings…not the robe."

https://web.archive.org/web/20001010..._after_50.html