camping undead jester

[Ele]

This comes up quite often with camps like Pained Soul and Rotting Skeleton. People sit there long enough and believe they are "due" a spawn/drop. This is completely untrue. Each spawn is an independent event and your chances of seeing the named/item on that particular spawn are the same each time. It is the gambler's fallacy.

[whippetofspades]

Originally Posted by Ele [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This comes up quite often with camps like Pained Soul and Rotting Skeleton. People sit there long enough and believe they are "due" a spawn/drop. This is completely untrue. Each spawn is an independent event and your chances of seeing the named/item on that particular spawn are the same each time. It is the gambler's fallacy.

While every event is independent what makes this unlikely is the notion of an uninterrupted streak. That is that it is equally unlikely to get ten heads in a row as it is alternating heads then tails for every toss. If what you describe were true, there would be a fifty-fifty chance between getting ten heads in a row and getting ten tails, and every possible combination between.