A Statistical analysis of Charm Duration

[charleski]

Originally Posted by shovelquest [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Charms should only last 8 minuets (max), mountains of proof:

https://project1999.com/forums/showp...3&postcount=81

I hope OP's science (that is above my pay grade) and this can put a rest to the debate and crush a bunch of people's joy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The fact is, however, that you can expect to see a charm lasting over ten minutes at least once in the course of a night. I don't know if there's a hard limit in the code, but obviously very long charms are quite rare given the exponential distribution.

Originally Posted by kjs86z2 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

the AI is getting pretty good

also thats a lot of words to say (your level vs mob level) > MR > 255 cha...something that has been known for decades now

and to suggest enc start STR is absurd...even if its a trivial difference in charm durations ill still take it to decrease lull crit fails

I'm saying exactly the opposite, didn't you notice? [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
The folklore that's built up over charm duration is founded on poor data and faulty analysis.

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I think this is based on findings in this thread from 2013 where lvl 53 mobs charm time averaged around 90 seconds. Anyone who charmed anything will know that this is pretty short. Spent 56-58 in frenzy and the few times I tried keeping a pet around for as long as possible I've had some hit the max duration of allure which was about 18m30s (I set a gina countdown timer for 18mins when I start casting charms). So mob level absolutely has an impact post 50 it seems. This thread also tries to demonstrate the usefulness of charisma at higher levels but it is hard to get a good sample solo when ilis frogs double for 400. Also, it is important to keep in mind cha has diminishing returns after 200.

Anecdotally I think MR makes a huge difference too because sometimes I go to Lguk or other lesser zones and I'll just pop a charm on a mob without tashing to trash a camp real quick and those charms seem be very short more often than not even though the mobs cap at like level 40.

And yes, cha is vital for lull crit fails and if you do any sort of dungeon crawls, lulls will often be your most casted spell. In some tricky places I've used lull crit fails to pull and stripping down all my +cha only pieces (-50ish) and taking off cha buffs made the process much quicker.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough in my first post. Average charm duration is completely meaningless. The concept of a mean only works for normally-distributed data. A lot of data does come from a normally-distributed population, but in this case that simply isn't true. For exponential data like this you can use the median instead, but that has very limited utility and generally doesn't allow the application of statistical tests. You really need to perform a deeper analysis of the data and extract an estimate of the core underlying probability.

I'm only looking at charm duration here. Resists on lull spells are obviously a completely different topic, but one that would be worth investigating properly at a later date.

As an aside, ironically I did notice a resist on the initial cast of Cajoling Whispers last night, so it can happen. It does seem very rare though, and I have to wonder if this shares the same 98% success rate that's applied to charm break rolls.