What's your "I have the worst luck" EQ moment(s)?

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm not great at statistics so correct me if I'm wrong but if you have a 40% fail rate there's a point where the odds of failing over X number of times in a row become pretty much statistically insignificant. It is not impossible but the probability is very low. The gamblers fallacy comes in when you believe the results of previous rolls impact the results of the next one, which is wrong but probabilities are still a thing.

So in essence, at 165 tailoring you have about 40% chance to fail. The probabilities would be that you'd have 1% chance to fail 5 combines so if you farm enough stuff for 5 combines it is pretty fair to expect one of them will work out even though it isn't impossible it doesn't.

I ended up getting my shawl on the 7th try so you could say I'm in the 1% club [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This sample size is no where near what's required to assume the probability is low.

[moozh]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This sample size is no where near what's required to assume the probability is low.

Huh? The % chance of succeeding the combine for a single attempt is ~40%. Probabilities are multiplicative and you can find the % chance associated with failing X attempts based on this.

For one attempt, since the chance of success is 40%, the chance of failure is 60%.

OP decided to queue up five attempts. His chance of failing all five attempts (i.e., not having a single success) is 0.6^5, or 0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6, which is ~0.078%. Pretty close to 1%.

Take for example, another scenario in which his chance of success in one attempt is also 40%, but he queues up 1000 attempts. His chance of success is still 40% on each attempt, but in 1000 attempts there isn’t a 40% chance that he’ll succeed just once. After only a few attempts it becomes less and less probable that he’ll continue to fail every attempt.

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by moozh [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Probabilities are multiplicative

They are not.

This is the gambler's fallacy.

One failure does not increase your chance on success on the next attempt.

Don't spread lies.

[moozh]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

They are not.

This is the gambler's fallacy.

One failure does not increase your chance on success on the next attempt.

Don't spread lies.

From mathisfun.com (https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/prob...dependent.html)

In our case, there are two possible outcomes: success (item drops), or failure (item does not drop). Think of success like being heads on a coin, and failure being tails (the difference being that our ‘coin’ is not 50/50).

If the chance in a single kill for the item to drop is 40% (success), the chance for the item to not drop is 60% (failure). The chance to get failure five times in a row (i.e., five independent failure events) is 0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6.