As a christian.

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Trexller [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Xi has never given any indication that ego is enough. They'll rattle the saber all day long of course, they have to keep up the facade that they are a super power.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning

[Trexller]

Originally Posted by aussenseiter [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning

what about it? seriously

nothing except a major shift in western power and ideology makes owning taiwan an existential necessity

tactically speaking, it makes alot more sense for russia to secure it's southern flank in ukraine then it does for china to take taiwan and gain nothing except an ego stroke

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Trexller [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

what about it? seriously

nothing except a major shift in western power and ideology makes owning taiwan an existential necessity

tactically speaking, it makes alot more sense for russia to secure it's southern flank in ukraine then it does for china to take taiwan and gain nothing except an ego stroke

It means Chy-na always talks tough but never follows through.

[Trexller]

Originally Posted by aussenseiter [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It means Chy-na always talks tough but never follows through.

ah yeah

this Chyna does follow through, however.

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[Lune]

Belief that you are infallible has never ended poorly for anybody. American military acquisitions are almost entirely determined by Congressmen who want jobs in their districts; they aren't even asking for more carriers but they are getting them and they're going to like it. The navy is asking for subs, and the other branches are asking for more numerous, cheaper, and cost-effective hardware.

Originally Posted by aussenseiter [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It means Chy-na always talks tough but never follows through.

They followed through our assholes in Korea. Though tbf Americans just wanted to enjoy the 50's and not fight a horde of chinamen

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Belief that you are infallible has never ended poorly for anybody. American military acquisitions are almost entirely determined by Congressmen who want jobs in their districts; they aren't even asking for more carriers but they are getting them and they're going to like it. The navy is asking for subs, and the other branches are asking for more numerous, cheaper, and cost-effective hardware.



They followed through our assholes in Korea. Though tbf Americans just wanted to enjoy the 50's and not fight a horde of chinamen

Replacement carriers, not new. Nimitz class is being deprecated though it may still go into mothballs.

Navy subs is what's holding up AUKUS from being approved. Republicans want more funding for domestic subs before letting the Aussies have any.

[Trexller]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Belief that you are infallible has never ended poorly for anybody. American military acquisitions are almost entirely determined by Congressmen who want jobs in their districts; they aren't even asking for more carriers but they are getting them and they're going to like it. The navy is asking for subs, and the other branches are asking for more numerous, cheaper, and cost-effective hardware.



They followed through our assholes in Korea. Though tbf Americans just wanted to enjoy the 50's and not fight a horde of chinamen

you're right, but like if we stopped buying new stuff today, RAND has wargames that put the US vs. Earth and everytime its a draw or the US wins. that's without outside resources, no new stuff. We have entirely too many weapons, just 1 carrier group is a better military than like 180 other countries. and there are theoretically 11 carrier strike groups.

so take that gear, knowledge and will power and put it up against a fighter like china whos only advantage is numbers, and prevent them from sailing across the taiwan straight and prevent their airborne landings then all you have to worry about is missiles and bombs which we're pretty good at shooting down.

the US didn't have the wherewithal to apply the required force to the korean war, nor did they understand the conflict they were fighting, just like vietnam.

but then they fixed it diplomatically more or less, south korea is a strong military ally cranking out modern war machines that rival our own like they're toyota corollas off an assembly line, and vietnam became such a big business partner immediately after the war that the chinese felt betrayed and invaded in 1979 where they got their ass whooped

which brings us to chinese military experience, which is slim to none. Theres the korean war with zerg tactics and their '79 vietnam incursion with zerg tactics.

its not unreasonable to suspect that the chinese don't know how to fight with, or against, modern military hardware because they never, ever have even tried.

[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Except the US is incapable of reliably evacuating more than a few people out of Taiwan before China locks it down til later in the war or forever. It's also cute you think South Korea wouldn't be immediately overrun and that any carriers within 800 mi of China wouldn't be immediately sunk.

Neither side would get the physical infrastructure, and China would get the human capital unless literally assassinated by the US.

We will fight them and we’ll win, but yes, it will be bloody and terrible

Hopefully someone within China realizes this and focuses on becoming more like Singapore and less like North Korea

I’m not optimistic. China has gone from being massive shit hole to rising power back to massive shit hole in my lifetime. I don’t believe people change very fast

[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by Trexller [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

the US isn't gonna defend taiwan. If china moves to take taiwan, a mass brain drain will occur. every single person with a tech based skill will be spirited away to the US.

everyone who works for TSMC will go work in their new fab facility in Arizona, and the facilities on taiwan will be destroyed.

the island has no strategic value as a barrier, it's too close to the mainland. it's value is as a defense installation and nobody in the world wants to invade china, so that makes it useless outside of political optics.

what will happen however, is a trade blockade. china will run out of all imported fuel and food in less than 1 month, which is a huge blow because they have over a billion people and cannot hope to feed them all with domestic resources.

1 carrier group in the malacca strait, and 1 carrier group south of japan. after that the US can rely on it's existing land installations in the pacific as both china and the US lob cruise missles at each other for say ~3 months for the optics and face saving, then they'll sign a treaty and go back to being frenemies.

china won't use nukes, they are forbidden from doing so by their own constitution outside of territorial defense.

Taiwan will fall, semiconductors will be reshored to the US, Japan and South Korea. Chinese people will experience famines and shortages, revolt and take down the CCP.

CCP knows this, so outside of political rhetoric, they recognize that the cost of taking taiwan isn't worth, but they sure love to talk about it.

for chinese economics, it's much more valuable having taiwan keep doing what it's doing. making stuff that the chinese can't steal or counterfeit.

considering that the chinese real estate market has crashed which was 30% of their GDP, and other sectors weakening as literally everyone (even chinese companies) are scrambling like mad to find other, safer places to manufacture their junk now that mexican, vietnamese, indian etc. labor is cheaper than chinese.

Xi has never given the wider world any indication that he's a madman hell bent on empire building. From the outside, all we see is a guy who wants to make china rich, and will stop at nothing from accomplishing that.

He's only got everything to lose if he moves on taiwan, of course there is the logic that because china is weakening, he has to get it done ASAP. Knowing that the US won't send troops to the island, he could calculate that the economic fallout is a price he's willing to pay for at least several decades, for a piece of territory that really kinda does belong to china.

it's the same logic Putin has about ukraine, which was russian territory for hundreds of years until western forces decided it should be an independent country.

personally, I don't care. I like war movies, and we need wars to keep making war movies [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.][You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.][You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

China doesn’t care about their people dying to famine. They’d just blame us and the midgets would fall in line and gleefully sign up to invade Taiwan and kill us and our allies

All of the things you pointed out make them more likely to invade, not less. You must remember you are dealing with people who thought communism was a good idea. Paranoia, nationalism, and a feeling you have nothing to lose are a dangerous combination

I say this mostly because I always thought (and hoped) Iran would get better once the octogenarian anti-imperialists who remembered 1953 died off, but nah, all of these autocrats just want to rule. They don’t give a fuck about anyone other than themselves. Ideology is just a facade, it’s about power. Xi has nothing but nationalism to maintain his power

I hope I’m wrong on all counts!

[Patriam1066]

On the plus side, conditions of total war would necessitate us addressing our public health crises, drugs and obesity. Once we ban both (reaper drones patrolling the skies looking for the fat or the stupefied) we’ll be better off as a nation