They change drop rates on GGR? Wiki full of BS?

[Isomorphic]

Originally Posted by jadier [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This would be true except:

(1) this isn't a "fair sample" so a strict application of standard deviations isn't really appropriate. My guess is that DMN knows way more than two people who've camped the ring, and is *only* reporting the two most egregious bad luck runs he's seen (because most people only talk about really bad or really good runs of luck; you brag when you get it in <10 couriers, and complain when it takes >50, but no one spontaneously posts in guildchat or whatever about that time they got it in 31 pops).

(2) there's a margin of error associated with the 3.5% estimate. If we think the drop rate has changed, we'd need either a more representative sample of camp results, or a staggeringly large outlier dataset (which this is not) given the uncertainty in the 3.5% estimate & the bias of the sample.

Edit: To put it another way, if you take the 224 kills with 8 rings the 3.5% is based on, and just add another 160 pops with 0 rings from the "DMN dataset" here (which, again, you shouldn't do as the DMN is biased in ways the original isn't) you get an estimate for the drop rate of...between 1 and 4%. Even with the bias reporting, it doesn't exclude the 3.5% estimate. It's just not that bad a run.

Edit edit: To be even more precise: DMN's friends would need to observe 221 total pops without a ring to *just barely* exclude 3.5% if you lumped them together (which, again again, you **cannot do** since the friends-complaining-about-bad-luck dataset is heavily biased).

The standard deviation is a property of the underlying distribution, not a sample. Regardless of what you think/feel about OP's reporting, my claim still stands. Given the assumption that the drop rate is 3.5% nothing I said is false. This leads me to your second point. I am assuming what the drop rate is, meaning I am deriving the standard deviation from this assumption. I am not assuming there is some estimation of the drop rate, which suggests that the drop rate in question is a random variable, it's a constant.