Took 53 hours for EE to drop manastone on Teal

[WizardEQ]

Originally Posted by 1asdfasdf1 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

30 minute respawn, 5% chance of dropping, you do the math. It should be about 1 drop per 2 days, so something like 75 stones total will drop per server until the patch. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

28 minute respawn. So in one day (24 hours), there will be approx. 51 EEs (24*60/28). At a 5% drop rate, this is 0.05*51 = 2.57 manastones per day.

As for the OP comment, there is a slight chance that a stone does not drop in any 53 hour period. The calculation is (1-0.05)^(53*60/28) = 0.00295 = 0.3% chance.

[Erati]

Originally Posted by WizardEQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

28 minute respawn. So in one day (24 hours), there will be approx. 51 EEs (24*60/28). At a 5% drop rate, this is 0.05*51 = 2.57 manastones per day.

As for the OP comment, there is a slight chance that a stone does not drop in any 53 hour period. The calculation is (1-0.05)^(53*60/28) = 0.00295 = 0.3% chance.

spawn rate is closer to 50-50 than 60%

at least from whats been reported, is it confirmed 60% spawn chance?

certainly never felt THAT common, many times 4+ hours of only frogs.

[WizardEQ]

Originally Posted by Erati [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

spawn rate is closer to 50-50 than 60%

at least from whats been reported, is it confirmed 60% spawn chance?

certainly never felt THAT common, many times 4+ hours of only frogs.

I was assuming the "5%" took that into consideration. If there is a 60% spawn with a 5% drop, then we should be using something closer to 3%. However, from everyone continuously being on the /list, I've been told that about 2 stones drop per day. So I'm guessing the 5% takes into consideration the 50 or 60% spawn chance.

It may be that it is 60% with an 8% drop rate. This produces a 4.8% probability of a stone every 28 minutes, which is really close to the 5% stated earlier.

Can anyone produce better spawn and/or drop rates?

[Erati]

Originally Posted by WizardEQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I was assuming the "5%" took that into consideration. If there is a 60% spawn with a 5% drop, then we should be using something closer to 3%. However, from everyone continuously being on the /list, I've been told that about 2 stones drop per day. So I'm guessing the 5% takes into consideration the 50 or 60% spawn chance.

It may be that it is 60% with an 8% drop rate. This produces a 4.8% probability of a stone every 28 minutes, which is really close to the 5% stated earlier.

Can anyone produce better spawn and/or drop rates?

theres a couple data points for you in here

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...d.php?t=342763

[this user was banned]

Originally Posted by Erati [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

theres a couple data points for you in here

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...d.php?t=342763

So that's roughly 1.25 manastones per day assuming it's constantly killed within 2 mins after 27-28 min spawn or 30min per spawn.

We have about 150 days until they are removed with the Sol Ro patch in May 2020

Let's be even more generous and round up to 2 manastones per day.

That means only 300 more people (per server) can get a manastone before they are removed. Ouch...

[WizardEQ]

Originally Posted by Erati [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

theres a couple data points for you in here

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...d.php?t=342763

From this data, the probability that a manastone drops withing any 28 minute period is (5/152) or 3.3%, not the 5% previously stated.

If we do the calculation again, we get (1-0.033)^(53*60/28) = 2.2% chance.

So there is a 1-in-45 chance of a manastone NOT dropping in any 53 hour period.

[Erati]

Originally Posted by WizardEQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

From this data, the probability that a manastone drops withing any 28 minute period is (5/152) or 3.3%, not the 5% previously stated.

If we do the calculation again, we get (1-0.033)^(53*60/28) = 2.2% chance.

So there is a 1-in-45 chance of a manastone NOT dropping in any 53 hour period.

Sounds ab right another math wiz at the camp concluded the Manastone EE spawn chance on a respawn is around 2%.

When you look at it that way rather than 1/X EE drop it, pretty depressing.

[WizardEQ]

From the Ataria data, there were 57 EE for 152 attempts, so that's 37.5% Let's assume 30% chance of an EE pop.

In those 57 pops, 5 stones dropped which is 8.8%. Let's assume there is a 10% chance of a manastone when the EE pops.

So the chance of a manastone dropping is 10% of 30%, or 0.10 x 0.30, which is 3%.

I think after all of our discussion, this is a pretty good estimate of the drop rate of a manastone at any 28 minute interval.

If we incorporate the binomial distribution, the chance of x manastones dropping in n attempts is:

P(x) = n(C)x * (0.97)^(n-x) * (0.03)^(x) where n(C)x = n!/((n-x)!*x!)

So the probability of 5 manastones dropping in 152 attempts is:

P(5) = 152(C)5 * (0.97)^(152-5) * (0.03)^(5) = 17.5%.


Since there are around 51 attempts in a day, here are the probabilities of the various amounts of manastones dropping within a 24 hour period:

P(0) = 51(C)0 * (0.97)^(51) * (0.03)^(0) = 21.2%.
P(1) = 51(C)1 * (0.97)^(50) * (0.03)^(1) = 33.4%.
P(2) = 51(C)2 * (0.97)^(49) * (0.03)^(2) = 25.8%.
P(3) = 51(C)3 * (0.97)^(48) * (0.03)^(3) = 13.0%.
P(4) = 51(C)4 * (0.97)^(47) * (0.03)^(4) = 4.8%.
P(5) = 51(C)5 * (0.97)^(46) * (0.03)^(5) = 1.4%.
P(6) = 51(C)6 * (0.97)^(45) * (0.03)^(6) = 0.3%.

Therefore, the expected number of manastones in a 24 period would be 1.522.