Brexit vote inc

[Lojik]

Dow dropped 500+ points the first day Obama was elected, 300+ the 2nd time he was elected. America is not noticeably worse off (unless you're a right wing crazy.) I wouldn't put too much stock in any of the short term dips.

Also, prognostication is not exactly a forte of economics. In the rare cases it can be useful, you need all of:

1) Similar situations from the past
2) Good data from said situations
3) Ability to isolate variables

There are way too many variables in this situation, and there are exactly zero situations where a country has voted to leave a union in the manner GB looks like they will, and if there are there isn't sufficient data from those occasions.

I believe this could go either way for them in the long run, but GB needs some good leadership to get through this (which isn't looking good at the moment.) Brexit isn't even binding so who knows if they even leave.

[derpcake]

Originally Posted by Lojik [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I believe this could go either way for them in the long run

Yea, somehow it doesn't seem like they were doing that bad when still solid part of the EU, right though.

Guess we'll see the full impact the coming decade.

[derpcake]

Originally Posted by Swish [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

One of a handful of stories coming out

You know pretty well that there are more stories stating the contrary.

Just as we both know my links won't get read so [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[Izmael]

If I was Belgian I'd be more worried about half my own country Brexiting itself. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[derpcake]

I'm Flemish, so no, not really.

Could only encourage that, but its never going to happen.

If you want to discuss our political landscape, I suggest asking mods to open a sub-forum, no way that shit is going to be contained in anything less [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[derpcake]

Originally Posted by Swish [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

HSBC decided to relocate to Paris, that's the only one I read about. Probably a bad choice long term.

I'd consider it a poor strategy to announce this before making the necessary preparations.

"hay guys we firing 80% of you in 6 months", isn't really a great motivator.

Probably wrong there, what do I know [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[Skew]

Originally Posted by derpcake [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

So what did you buy into?

I mean its not EU currency that hit rock-bottom bro.

Even if I went with your suggestion that everyone is wrong.. guess what, no more investing in UK, because everyone includes investors.

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.] Yes , this is an absolute end of times. No more "investing".
Look , you're new to finance , markets and economics , i can tell.
The best piece of advice i can give you is learn to think for yourself
Ignore "experts" , ignore mass media , ignore hedge fund managers. And yes , ignore me if you follow the path of self-learning.
Use your own powers of investigation , common sense and knowledge through historical understanding of monetary finance and draw your own conclusions , not those who wish to propaganda you. I have no skin in the game of fooling you - those quasi State institutions do.
But as you will.

[Izmael]

Originally Posted by Swish [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

HSBC decided to relocate to Paris, that's the only one I read about. Probably a bad choice long term.

"HSBC would move up to 1,000 staff from London to Paris if the UK left the single market, following Britain's vote to leave the EU, the BBC understands.", quoting BBC.

"Up to 1000 jobs" could mean "25 jobs".

"If the UK left the single market" could mean "never" since the UK could negotiate something to remain in the single market while not being part of of the EU.

Basically the whole "omgz the banks are all going to France and the english will starve to death" bullshit was just that... bullshit.

[derpcake]

Originally Posted by Skew [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.] Yes , this is an absolute end of times. No more "investing".
Look , you're new to finance , markets and economics , i can tell.
The best piece of advice i can give you is learn to think for yourself
Ignore "experts" , ignore mass media , ignore hedge fund managers. And yes , ignore me if you follow the path of self-learning.
Use your own powers of investigation , common sense and knowledge through historical understanding of monetary finance and draw your own conclusions , not those who wish to propaganda you. I have no skin in the game of fooling you - those quasi State institutions do.
But as you will.

Have you written a book on how to become a billionaire yet?

If I had 1 pound for every (poor) self-proclaimed finance specialist, I'd still be a lot less rich then I would have been last monday.

Hilarious.

[derpcake]

Originally Posted by Izmael [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

"HSBC would move up to 1,000 staff from London to Paris if the UK left the single market, following Britain's vote to leave the EU, the BBC understands.", quoting BBC.

"Up to 1000 jobs" could mean "25 jobs".

"If the UK left the single market" could mean "never" since the UK could negotiate something to remain in the single market while not being part of of the EU.

Basically the whole "omgz the banks are all going to France and the english will starve to death" bullshit was just that... bullshit.

yes, up to 1000 usually means 25

funny arguments

In theory, an independent Britain could negotiate a deal with the EU that grants British businesses the same kind of preferential access to the EU that they enjoy now. Indeed, Norway has just this kind of deal: It’s not a EU member, but the country has agreed to voluntarily abide by most EU rules, and in exchange it enjoys most of the economic privileges of EU membership.

One problem is that EU leaders may not be in a forgiving mood after a British vote to leave. Many European countries have domestic euroskeptical movements of their own, and European leaders are worried that a successful British exit could embolden them. So the EU may refuse to give the UK a favorable deal as a warning to other countries thinking about exiting the EU.

Another problem is that Britain may not want a Norway-style deal. To gain preferred access, Norway is required to adopt many EU regulations. A recent British government report found that "Norway has adopted three quarters of the EU’s rules and legislation."

So if the point of leaving the EU is to escape its burdensome regulations, it's not obvious that the Norwegian model will accomplish that. And while euroskeptics have complained that the EU is not sufficiently accountable to British voters, voters in Norway have no influence at all over EU laws that — in many cases — Norway’s legislature must approve without modification in order to gain access to the European common market.

To a large extent, then, unfettered access to European markets and diminished British sovereignty are a package deal. It's never going to be possible for the United Kingdom to retain full control over domestic regulation while enjoying access to EU markets on par with the access available to other EU member states.