FBSS rarity? - Page 4

Droodler · #31 02-03-2011, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Your "application" of statistics to my question was about as useful as some random scientist taking an hour to explain the inner workings of gravity to someone who asked "How much does this rock weigh?"

You fail to understand. Read more about statistics, specifically assigning Bayesian priors. My analysis is perfectly valid and gave you a much more reasonable estimate of the drop rate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If 86 out of 100 people would have gotten an fbss where I did not, how can you say that isn't significant?

Usually we say something is significant if p < 0.05. SOMETIMES people use 0.10. Your result is not significant.

BobSmith · #32 02-03-2011, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubbles [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Between me and a buddy - 63 hours without a sash.

It's probably still the server record.

God i hate that f'n camp.

If the 1 in 50 estimate is correct, the odds of getting at least one FBSS in 63 hours is about 99.95%.

You got bitchin' rights Bubbles.

oldhead · #33 02-03-2011, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubbles [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Between me and a buddy - 63 hours without a sash.

It's probably still the server record.

God i hate that f'n camp.

Heh that sucks... I did a 33 hour run for the FBSS on live.. didnt get one. Ended up buying it then getting a FBSS drop later with my twink that was wearing the fbss I bought.

I'd say total time I was in #1 line for the FBSS would be about 80 hours on live and only got one.

edit - i tend to have bad luck on spawns tho.

Messianic · #34 02-03-2011, 02:04 PM

What's so amusing is how much money people could have made in the same 30+ hours they spent trying to farm the FBSS, had they just gone out and tried to earn the money the consistent way. Particularly pet classes.

You could have likely just made the cash and bought like 2 FBSS', even with what they typically go for nowadays.

All I can say is I can't wait for Kunark so all my favorite classic places start opening up [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Extunarian · #35 02-03-2011, 02:33 PM

I found Droodler's analysis helpful and interesting. I'm sorry that he couldn't confirm for you that you were significantly unlucky, and I'm sorry you react with such contempt when you see charts.

Shiftin · #36 02-03-2011, 02:46 PM

sky haste belts rot they're going out of style and the first island can be farmed by 1 group, the second island by 2 groups.

Messianic · #37 02-03-2011, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Extunarian [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I found Droodler's analysis helpful and interesting. I'm sorry that he couldn't confirm for you that you were significantly unlucky, and I'm sorry you react with such contempt when you see charts.

CHARTS BAD

GO AWAY

Tovin · #38 02-03-2011, 03:18 PM

You folks aren't accounting for the time it takes the kill the mob in between spawns. So unless you've got an army of wizzies nuking mobs as they pop, your likelihood starts to decrease. In fact, I'd say it probably takes an extra 1-2 minutes to pull and kill the Frenzied or PH each time it pops. Over 63 hours this time can really add up!

Droodler · #39 02-03-2011, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tovin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You folks aren't accounting for the time it takes the kill the mob in between spawns. So unless you've got an army of wizzies nuking mobs as they pop, your likelihood starts to decrease. In fact, I'd say it probably takes an extra 1-2 minutes to pull and kill the Frenzied or PH each time it pops. Over 63 hours this time can really add up!

I just used OP's data that he killed 109 in 18 hours and estimated that, on average, he was able to kill 6.1 per hour. This should already include the extra time required to kill a mob.

Dantes · #40 02-03-2011, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by guineapig [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

In all honesty, with the rate at which haste belts are rotting in sky you are better off just grinding your melee character to 46 then buying a Sky stone. for 100 and change.

Just my opinion of course, but I think too much time / platinum is wasted on a 1AC zero stat item in classic where most of the mobs you will be fighting have ridiculously low hit-points to begin with.

I would agree with this. This is exactly what I've decided to do. A lack of FBSS isn't really hurting my ability to tank, my Yak still procs a lot. The sky belts are better, and it pains me to remove the 9 AC 9 STA 9 STR mithril plated girth for a lowly 1 AC 21% haste belt.

For a twink rogue/monk it makes more sense, DPS is your biggest deal. Haste is a must. But for a tank, meh.