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DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 01:05 PM

and when you have 188seconds (30 ticks) seconds to cannibalize 1400hp (10 casts) ...

it is not an issue

Agreed, on a long enough time period it isn't a problem, like the specific example you gave. But sometimes being able to get more mana back in a short period is important too, like if you are low on mana for whatever reason.

You still didn't address the "300 mana surplus" mistake you made here https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671598&postcount=430 , which is a pretty big mistake.

- 2x Envenomed Bolt (2665 Damage) + 1x Plague (1270 Damage) + Hasted and Regened Pet (17 DPS) = ~37.2 DPS when factoring in DoTs will not be active for the full fight
- 1426 HP recovered from Sitting Regen (16 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 31 ticks
- 651 Mana recovered from Sitting Regen (21 Mana) over 31 ticks
- 640 Mana spent on 2x Envenomed Bolts
- 300 Mana spent on 1x Plague
- 175 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects
- 30 Mana spent on 1x Root
- 100 Mana and 30 HP spent due to losing 5 Sitting Regen ticks while casting the 5 spells above
- 69 Mana spent on overhead from casting Regen on Pet 4x per hour
- 485 damage taken to pet (1880 damage - 1395 regenerated from 45 HP a tick)
- 175 Mana spent on Chloroblast for pet to counter 385 damage above. Pet is at -100 HP after the fight.

Total HP Gained: 1396
Total Mana Spent: 838
Total Fight Time: 188 seconds

This is the actual mana spent per fight, and you would be at -84 HP and -18 mana assuming you used Cannibalize 4. Your pet would be at -100 HP too after Chloroblast.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671759&postcount=476 - This shows the JBB Shaman spending 188 seconds per fight as well.

Either you add 6 seconds to the recovery time on the DoT Shaman, making it 196 seconds for the DoTing Shaman vs. 188 seconds for the JBB Shaman, or you allow the JBB Shaman to pull 1 tick earlier by conceding that it is fine to pull while not at 100% HP/Mana, and then it is 188 seconds for the DoTing Shaman vs. 182 seconds for the JBB Shaman.

Troxx is still wrong, JBB is indeed a more efficient leveling tool from 45-60 when compared to root rotting without Epic, even when comparing an Ogre to an Iksar.

Troxx

01-28-2024, 01:56 PM

You still didn't address the "300 mana surplus" mistake you made here https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671598&postcount=430 , which is a pretty big mistake.

Except I did:

Instead of 720 surplus mana from Canni III, You're looking at ~800 mana from Canni IV. This leaves the 58 shaman not using JBB with closer to 300 mana surplus net at the end of the fight @ 188 seconds. This is more than enough to compensate for the slow/root from each fight and more or less all buff refreshes required over the course of the xp session (pet haste/regen, self regen, etc).

If you subtract 125 mana from the slow and 30 from the root - that leaves you with 145 mana surplus per mob pull. Regen lasts nearly 20 minutes (just under 19 at 58). If it takes you 30 seconds to pull a new mob that's 3.6 minutes per kill shot. That's over 5 kills per 19 minutes. If each kill gives you 145 mana surplus --- that's 725 mana. 2 casts of regrowth is 600 mana (before specialization kicks in), leaving 125 mana to refresh haste. While this does admittedly leave you with a napkin math deficit as the celerity costs 185 mana and only lasts 16 minutes, it also is still ignoring the 30 seconds of pulling x 5 which gives you an additional 15+15+10 hp/tick you've got standing/running/pulling. That's 25 'pulling' ticks giving you another 1000hp of passive regen which can then be converted to another 550 mana recovered via Canni during the non-active combat time.

This is the benefit of not being OCD about starting/finishing fights at 100% health. I always like to stay under 100% so that I can maximally benefit from regen when I'm doing full on efficiency mode. I try never to be at 100% health unless I'm also at 100% mana. In this type of solo, you'll never realistically be at 100% of either. It's a fun juggling game and one of the things I appreciate about the class.

Point is you save mana per mob such that it covers all of your overhead in terms of regen refreshes, minor buffs, hastes and helps to offset any losses from resists or fizzles. And remember, the resists will affect both shaman's more or less to the same degree. Every resist you get on JBB is >30 dps lost for that unit time spent casting. Partial resists on JBB = lost dps. Partial resists on the DD component of the Dots is fairly negligible.

And if you look at post:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671598&postcount=430

You will see that, in a very anticipatory manner, I credited the shaman 28 meditation ticks, not 31.333 ticks.. I already accounted for this both in the hp recovered (sitting vs standing racial regen) and in the number of mana ticks hit.

1 tick for each dot cost. Wait for tick. Cast dot (opportunity cost 1 tick) - sit. 2x EB and 1x Disease dot. I mean I guess we could wiggle on whether the shaman misses 3 ticks or 4 (compensate for root). Alternately you could admit that you are casting that first dot before the mob is on top of you. Maybe it hits before the mob reaches you, may be it does not. Regardless ... then you root and back up.

And ... despite all of the above ... I have actually done both. I had a JBB until ~56. I was accustomed to using JBB spam. I know precisely how good it is/was. I started playing around with an alternative and realized that I was killing more mobs per unit time by not using my JBB at all - it's why I sold it.

That was this, this is now. Disease counters and poison counter threat is now completely scalped. E-bolt, Bane, Plague etc used to generate a ton of threat per cast. Now? Very anemic threat.

For the modern leveling shaman, they don't have to deal with the same issue with pet holding or not holding aggro that I did. I got by just fine with the 30 mana sub 1-minute root under the old rule set. Under the current rule set, pet holding aggro is comparatively trivial.

----------------------
--------------------------------

TLDR: JBB is an overpowered tool for PLing yourself 45-51. It is a good/strong tool in your early 50s. By 52 you have regrowth and the dynamic starts to shift. By 55 the nail in the coffin is the 55 pet. It does a lot more damage, takes a lot less damage and is generally beefy enough that it is your effective tank that requires nothing more than a Togors slow, a regrowth, and a rare spot heal. Remember that while you are pulling that pet continues to regen 45hp/tick until the next time it's getting hit. We both know it is good enough to tank slowed Cliff golems. Xp trash is trivial for it to tank.

After 55, JBB is a cute toy. Not useless. Still a viable way of soloing, but it is no longer the best way of doing so.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 02:02 PM

Except I did:
If you subtract 125 mana from the slow and 30 from the root

Togor's Insects costs 175 mana. https://wiki.project1999.com/Togor%27s_Insects You are also ignoring the mana cost for casting Regen on your pet, the JBB Shaman isn't doing that. That is another 69 mana per fight. So already you just ignoring 119 mana.

I credited the shaman 28 meditation ticks, not 31.333 ticks.

You need to subtract 5 ticks. You cannot assume you will hit the server ticks on Slow or Root, because combat is dynamic. If you wait for the server tick to cast your root, you may take damage from the mob, which would be counted anyway. Remember I am being generous and assuming the Iksar shaman is missing zero server ticks to begin with, which is already unrealistic.

You still haven't shown the flaw in this calculation:

- 2x Envenomed Bolt (2665 Damage) + 1x Plague (1270 Damage) + Hasted and Regened Pet (17 DPS) = ~37.2 DPS when factoring in DoTs will not be active for the full fight
- 1426 HP recovered from Sitting Regen (16 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 31 ticks
- 651 Mana recovered from Sitting Regen (21 Mana) over 31 ticks
- 640 Mana spent on 2x Envenomed Bolts
- 300 Mana spent on 1x Plague
- 175 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects
- 30 Mana spent on 1x Root
- 100 Mana and 30 HP spent due to losing 5 Sitting Regen ticks while casting the 5 spells above
- 69 Mana spent on overhead from casting Regen on Pet 4x per hour
- 485 damage taken to pet (1880 damage - 1395 regenerated from 45 HP a tick)
- 175 Mana spent on Chloroblast for pet to counter 385 damage above. Pet is at -100 HP after the fight.

Total HP Gained: 1396
Total Mana Spent: 838
Total Fight Time: 188 seconds

Troxx

01-28-2024, 02:21 PM

Did you not read my other post? I was compensating for the regens already. You are correct that I neglected 50 from the Togors.

So 95 mana per mob. 5 mobs per regrowth refresh = 95 mana per mob fight x5 and 500 mana from the regen used to canni for the 30 seconds spent pulling each of those 5 mobs all within the time it takes to need refresh regen.

(95x5) + 550 = 1025 mana surplus between the times refresh needs to be refreshed. Remember I’m out on a second pull at 189 seconds without a shaman deficit. At 189 seconds you’re still ~ 50 seconds from being HP neutral

Regrowth x2 = 600 mana - 425 left over to keep haste up at 185 per 16 minutes and any other minor buffs or heals.

On the expenditure front we are ignoring specialist in Alteration so all your slows, hastes, regens, roots save a flat 12% in mana preservation- none of our calculations have accounted for that.

So the root/dot pet tank shaman is at a point of near neutral with a mana surplus but pet down some hp and ready to start next pull in 188sec…

Vs the JBB shaman who’s gonna be able to full reach a neutral state every > 230 seconds thinking about starting that next pull

——————

I really do hate napkin math but unfortunately it seems to be the only language DSM speaks. It does not account for all the other wild card variables. The dotting shaman could get unlucky with fizzles/resists. The JBB shaman can get unlucky with resists. The mob could get lucky and do a lot more than 10dps slowed … or do less.

But I have played both ways.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 02:38 PM

Specialization saves 30 mana per regrowth cast. We still need to take into account regrowths sitting tick loss, as it is a 6 second cast time. You save 7 mana per encounter, so 62 instead of 69. You would save 18 mana from the heal, so you are still at -84 HP after using Canni 4, and your pet is still at -100 HP.

Specialization reduces the Slow/Root cost of both thr JBB Shaman and the DoT Shaman, so they both save the time there.

If the DoT Shaman can start another pull at -84 HP with their pet at -100 HP the JBB Shaman can start another pull at -150 HP. You cannot pad the JBB shamans recovery time in a silly attempt to win. You cannot claim the Shaman should never be at 100% HP while also forcing the JBB Shaman to be at 100% HP. The JBB Shaman is also pulling after 188 seconds, not the over 200 seconds you keep padding.

The DoTing Shaman is affected more by the wild card variables, which you keep ignoring. I take them into consideration, you just keep not reading it.

Troxx

01-28-2024, 03:19 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 03:26 PM

You’re grasping at straws at this point. Small enough variables that won’t have an impact on the outcome.

I’m happy to have shown you how to properly napkin math. This is a stark improvement over assuming 2 shamans will have 30 minutes of uptime and 30 minutes of downtime. The JBB shaman will have a lot of down/recover time so it makes sense that this is the position you defaulted to.

The shaman playing smartly without JBB isn’t going to need all that down time.

The only person grasping at straws is yourself. You claim the Shaman shouldn't be at 100% HP, and then force the JBB Shaman to recover to 100% to pad recovery time. I am sorry, you still are wrong. You also keep ignoring the fact that thr DoTing shaman has more RnG bad luck.

Ripqozko

01-28-2024, 03:29 PM

This is what kittens have become, full of DSM

Toxigen

01-28-2024, 03:59 PM

me checking on this thread this weekend:

9EYZnSXEla0

Troxx

01-28-2024, 04:07 PM

The only person grasping at straws is yourself. You claim the Shaman shouldn't be at 100% HP, and then force the JBB Shaman to recover to 100% to pad recovery time. I am sorry, you still are wrong. You also keep ignoring the fact that thr DoTing shaman has more RnG bad luck.

I never said the JBB shaman had to be at 100% health. We’re talking reaching a point of being neutral. Recovering that which you lost/spent during the fight itself. If you have 80% health when you start a fight (let’s say 2000/2500hp self buffed). Your point of neutrality is once, after the fight is over, you’re up to 2000hp again. The same for relative mana. I don't ever routinely advocate for a Shaman sitting at 100% health - that's just wasted potential.

The JBB shaman will end the fight with less mana and about 500hp less than they started with - more than a minute of sitting on their butt if they are a troll/iksar and even longer as an Ogre.

The non-JBB shaman would end a fight they started at 2000/2500 HP at 3400/2500hp … except they converted that hp regenerated back into mana (back to 2000/2500) and ended up with 100 extra mana than they started the fight with - accounting for all spells they cast during the fight. Ending the fight at 2k hp instead of 2.5, they continue to efficiently tap into that regen while they pull the next - no waste.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 04:19 PM

I never said the JBB shaman had to be at 100% health.

You did:

The "last bit of HP" you are glossing over is actually more than half of the hp you lost. If you were to pull immediately at the end of each 180 second fight, you'd be losing close to 300 health per fight ... fight after fight. Remember, we're soloing here so this doesn't mean that you are at 100% health and 100% mana at the start of every fight and refusing to pull until you are again 100/100. You could start each fight at 90% ... or 80% health/mana. We're xp grinding here, not soloing WW dragons.

How long is the actual recover time to the "break even" point?
Ogre with JBB = 232 seconds.
Troll/iksar letting pet tank = 188 seconds (won't dispute that - same exact numbers I found)

JBB shaman:
17 dps pet + 32.875 dps JBB (50dps)
Fight takes 140 seconds
Mob does 1400damage to the shaman
Shaman regenerated 920 health over 140 seconds
Fight ends with shaman at a net negative 480hp
It will take 72 seconds to regen the lost hp and will recover 240 mana during that time.

"232" seconds of recovery time doesn't make sense in the first quote, when looking at the second quote you were referencing.

1. 140 seconds + 72 seconds = 212 seconds.

2. 1400 - 920 = 480 HP. 12 ticks (72 seconds) of recovery at 33 HP/Tick = 396 HP. The Shaman would be down 84 HP at this point.

3. To get the "232" seconds, you would need to add 3 ticks of recovery time to 212 seconds to make up the full 480 HP. This means you are assuming the JBB Shaman has to be at 100% when calculating recovery times, while simultaneously claiming Shaman's don't have to be at 100% HP.

Now, your 212 second number is still wrong, which I have shown repeatedly. The JBB Shaman is also clearing the encounter in 188 seconds when you aren't including specialization or Regrowth + Haste upkeep on both the Iksar and Ogre. Including them increases the Iksar's time too. But you did indeed attempt to pad recovery time. As I said, grasping at straws.

Duik

01-28-2024, 05:33 PM

Jesus titty fucking christ.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 05:34 PM

I will add Specialization and Self Regrowth + Pet Haste at Troxx's request. It still doesn't change the outcome. It just increases the time on both encounters equally.

Criteria
=========
1. Two Level 58 Shamans. One is an Iksar root/rotting, the other is an Ogre with JBB.
2. Mob does 10 DPS while slowed with Togor's Insects.
3. 7000 HP mob, A Ratfink from PoM Rat Maze.
4. Both Shamans have Fungi Tunic.
5. Both Shamans have Regrowth on themselves, and Haste on their Pets.
6. Regrowth has an upkeep of 1.94 mana per tick on Ogres and 1.95 mana per tick on Iksars over an hour.
7. Celerity has an upkeep of 1.25 mana per tick on Ogres and 1.26 mana per tick on Iksars over an hour.
8. Mortal Deftness has an upkeep of 0.26 mana per tick on Ogres over an hour. The Iksar is not using this spell.
9. Average pull time is 3 ticks (18 seconds).
10. 2.2 DPS from Blight, Hammer of the Scourge for the JBB Shaman. A Shaman with 135 DEX (75 Base + 60 from Buff) has 1.3 PPM. Fight is 2 minutes, so 2.6 procs per fight on average. Halve that because JBB is halving the number of swings. Reduce to 1.0 to cover for the small time where the mob is rooted. Weapon would proc after the first minute on average. 544 / 2 (half ticks) + 40 (DD) = 312 damage. 312 / 132 seconds = ~2.4 DPS, but we can reduce it to 2.2 again to account for root. This is also not including the white damage from the Hammer itself.

Ogre with JBB
=============
- JBB (32.8 DPS) + Hasted Pet (17 DPS) + Blight, Hammer of the Scourge weapon proc (2.2 DPS) = 53 DPS
- 726 HP recovered from Standing Regen (3 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 22 ticks
- 1320 damage taken from face tanking (10 DPS)
- 22 Mana recovered from Standing Regen (1 Mana) over 22 ticks
- 158 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects after specialization
- 6 Mana spent on overhead from casting Mortal Deftness 1x per hour
- 43 Mana spent on overhead from Regrowth on self 4x per hour
- 28 Mana spent on overhead from Celerity on Pet 4x per hour
- 28 Mana spent on 1x Root after specialization to let pet tank for a small period
- 120 HP recovered from root. It prevents 80-160 damage at the beginning of the fight, depending on if root breaks after the first or second JBB cast

Total HP Spent: 474
Total Mana Spent: 241
Total Fight Time: 132 seconds
Total Meditation Time after combat: 66 seconds to recover 231 Mana. You are down -78 HP and -10 Mana.

196 seconds per encounter. With the 3 tick average pull time, the Shaman would be down -7 Mana after each encounter. Since you are not tied to the 188 second fight time, you can pull earlier if the pull time is longer. 184-190 seconds per encounter on longer pulls.

Iksar without JBB using root/rotting
=============
- 2x Envenomed Bolt (2665 Damage) + 1x Plague (1270 Damage) + Hasted and Regened Pet (17 DPS) = ~37.2 DPS when factoring in DoTs will not be active for the full fight
- 1426 HP recovered from Sitting Regen (16 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 31 ticks
- 651 Mana recovered from Sitting Regen (21 Mana) over 31 ticks
- 640 Mana spent on 2x Envenomed Bolts
- 300 Mana spent on 1x Plague
- 158 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects after specialization
- 28 Mana spent on 1x Root after specialization
- 100 Mana and 30 HP spent due to losing 5 Sitting Regen ticks while casting the 5 spells above
- 121 Mana spent on overhead from casting Regrowth on self AND pet, 8x per hour
- 485 damage taken to pet (1880 damage - 1395 regenerated from 45 HP a tick)
- 158 Mana spent on Chloroblast for pet to counter the damage above after specialization

Total HP Gained: 1396
Total Mana Spent: 854
Total Fight Time: 188 seconds
Total Recovery Time: 6 seconds to recover 21 Mana. Canni 4 would put you at -84 HP and -34 Mana after combat, so you would need to spend 6 seconds recovering to end up with -38 HP and -13 Mana. Pet would be at -100 HP, but will recover after the pull.

194 Seconds per encounter. With the 3 tick average pull time, the Shaman would be at -10 Mana after each encounter. This assumes the Iksar Shaman never fizzled, missed a sitting tick aside from spell casts, never got a spell resist on DoTs, never got a root break, and never got hit during a root break.

Realistically the JBB Shaman could start a new encounter 12-18 seconds earlier if they know that the pull is going to be long. Shamans should not be at 100% HP while pulling, but we are assuming this just to remove the possibility of HP drift across multiple encounters. The DoT Shaman will be spending the full 188 seconds on the encounter, or they will lose some sitting ticks from pulling early while the pet finishes off the mob. The JBB Shaman does not have to worry about fizzling for the most part, missing sitting ticks, spell resists on expensive spells like your DoTs, and root breaks which cost HP and Mana to re-root the mob, + loss of sitting tick. This is why JBB is better. You end up saving a good amount of HP/Mana per hour by removing these RnG factors from your gameplay. A resisted JBB cast from time to time costs no mana. A resisted DoT would cost 300 mana, which means you need to spend time out of combat recovering it. This counteracts the occasional JBB resist, which would extend the fight by 8 seconds and cost zero mana.

fortior

01-28-2024, 06:10 PM

this is still going? lol

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 06:33 PM

Reposting with a small addendum. I did not explain the longer pull times well enough. Since the JBB Shaman is finishing the mob 56 seconds sooner than the DoT Shaman, they have more flexibility on pull times depending on pull length and RnG luck with how much damage they take per fight. A DoT Shaman has less wiggle room here, as they will be forced to leave their pet to finish the mob if they want to pull earlier. They can do this of course, but then you need to add the additional factor of leaving your pet alone while you pull.

I will add Specialization and Self Regrowth + Pet Haste at Troxx's request. It still doesn't change the outcome. It just increases the time on both encounters equally.

Criteria
=========
1. Two Level 58 Shamans. One is an Iksar root/rotting, the other is an Ogre with JBB.
2. Mob does 10 DPS while slowed with Togor's Insects.
3. 7000 HP mob, A Ratfink from PoM Rat Maze.
4. Both Shamans have Fungi Tunic.
5. Both Shamans have Regrowth on themselves, and Haste on their Pets.
6. Regrowth has an upkeep of 1.94 mana per tick on Ogres and 1.95 mana per tick on Iksars over an hour.
7. Celerity has an upkeep of 1.25 mana per tick on Ogres and 1.26 mana per tick on Iksars over an hour.
8. Mortal Deftness has an upkeep of 0.26 mana per tick on Ogres over an hour. The Iksar is not using this spell.
9. Average pull time is 3 ticks (18 seconds).
10. 2.2 DPS from Blight, Hammer of the Scourge for the JBB Shaman. A Shaman with 135 DEX (75 Base + 60 from Buff) has 1.3 PPM. Fight is 2 minutes, so 2.6 procs per fight on average. Halve that because JBB is halving the number of swings. Reduce to 1.0 to cover for the small time where the mob is rooted. Weapon would proc after the first minute on average. 544 / 2 (half ticks) + 40 (DD) = 312 damage. 312 / 132 seconds = ~2.4 DPS, but we can reduce it to 2.2 again to account for root. This is also not including the white damage from the Hammer itself.

Ogre with JBB
=============
- JBB (32.8 DPS) + Hasted Pet (17 DPS) + Blight, Hammer of the Scourge weapon proc (2.2 DPS) = 53 DPS
- 726 HP recovered from Standing Regen (3 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 22 ticks
- 1320 damage taken from face tanking (10 DPS)
- 22 Mana recovered from Standing Regen (1 Mana) over 22 ticks
- 158 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects after specialization
- 6 Mana spent on overhead from casting Mortal Deftness 1x per hour
- 43 Mana spent on overhead from Regrowth on self 4x per hour
- 28 Mana spent on overhead from Celerity on Pet 4x per hour
- 28 Mana spent on 1x Root after specialization to let pet tank for a small period
- 120 HP recovered from root. It prevents 80-160 damage at the beginning of the fight, depending on if root breaks after the first or second JBB cast

Total HP Spent: 474
Total Mana Spent: 241
Total Fight Time: 132 seconds
Total Meditation Time after combat: 66 seconds to recover 231 Mana. You are down -78 HP and -10 Mana.

196 seconds per encounter. With the 3 tick average pull time, the Shaman would be down -7 Mana after each encounter. Since you are not tied to the 188 second fight time, you can pull earlier if the pull time is longer. 184 or less seconds per encounter on longer pulls, as you are not pulling while fighting.

Iksar without JBB using root/rotting
=============
- 2x Envenomed Bolt (2665 Damage) + 1x Plague (1270 Damage) + Hasted and Regened Pet (17 DPS) = ~37.2 DPS when factoring in DoTs will not be active for the full fight
- 1426 HP recovered from Sitting Regen (16 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 31 ticks
- 651 Mana recovered from Sitting Regen (21 Mana) over 31 ticks
- 640 Mana spent on 2x Envenomed Bolts
- 300 Mana spent on 1x Plague
- 158 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects after specialization
- 28 Mana spent on 1x Root after specialization
- 100 Mana and 30 HP spent due to losing 5 Sitting Regen ticks while casting the 5 spells above
- 121 Mana spent on overhead from casting Regrowth on self AND pet, 8x per hour
- 485 damage taken to pet (1880 damage - 1395 regenerated from 45 HP a tick)
- 158 Mana spent on Chloroblast for pet to counter the damage above after specialization

Total HP Gained: 1396
Total Mana Spent: 854
Total Fight Time: 188 seconds
Total Recovery Time: 6 seconds to recover 21 Mana. Canni 4 would put you at -84 HP and -34 Mana after combat, so you would need to spend 6 seconds recovering to end up with -38 HP and -13 Mana. Pet would be at -65 HP, but will recover after the pull.

194 Seconds per encounter. With the 3 tick average pull time, the Shaman would be at -10 Mana after each encounter. This assumes the Iksar Shaman never fizzled, missed a sitting tick aside from spell casts, never got a spell resist on DoTs, never got a root break, and never got hit during a root break. 188 per encounter on longer pulls. If you choose to pull sooner while the mob is still alive, you need to factor in the risk of leaving your pet by itself to finish the mob.

Realistically the JBB Shaman could start a new encounter 12-18 seconds earlier if they know that the pull is going to be long. Shamans should not be at 100% HP while pulling, but we are assuming this just to remove the possibility of HP drift across multiple encounters. The DoT Shaman will be spending the full 188 seconds on the encounter. If they decide to pull earlier, they will need to leave the pet alone to finish the mob, which adds risk that the JBB Shaman does not have. The JBB Shaman does not have to worry about fizzling for the most part, missing sitting ticks, spell resists on expensive spells like your DoTs, and root breaks which cost HP and Mana to re-root the mob, + loss of sitting tick. This is why JBB is better. You end up saving a good amount of HP/Mana per hour by removing these RnG factors from your gameplay. A resisted JBB cast from time to time costs no mana. A resisted DoT would cost 300 mana, which means you need to spend time out of combat recovering it. This counteracts the occasional JBB resist, which would extend the fight by 8 seconds and cost zero mana.

Troxx

01-28-2024, 06:43 PM

You know what

I’m done. In good faith I have engaged on all the debatable areas. Anyone reading this thread will read it all - whether about the actual value of JBB or the relative value of FSI vs racial regen.

I will remain in this thread only in the capacity of the “lulz”. Yet another unproductive DSM thread.

For those “new guys”

-FSI is overrated
-any shaman regardless of race is OP and capable at baseline
-racial regen is superior
-JBB is great at PLing 45-51. Good from 51-52, starts to fall behind around 52 (regrowth) and becomes irrelevant at 55 with new pet

/thread

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 06:51 PM

You know what

I’m done.

Thank you for conceding. I know you will not directly admit you are wrong in any thread, but this is close enough. You cannot rebut the data, and refuse to change your mind. You obviously have the right to your opinion, but it is just an opinion since you cannot back it up with facts.

In good faith I have engaged on all the debatable areas.

You did much better in this thread than others, as you actually tried to present some evidence this time. I consider that a good example of personal growth! Please keep it up.

You still did a lot of trolling, however. Claiming that changing your location to "The sands of DSM’s vagina" and your many troll posts are "good faith" is obviously silly:

When Troxx cannot rebut points, he resorts to silly gifs and fake autism medical diagnoses:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=182 - fake medical diagnosis.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=240 - Silly gif

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=156 - Silly gif

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=151 - Silly gif

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=100 - Silly gif

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...9&postcount=38 - Silly gif

---

-FSI is overrated
-racial regen is superior [in all cases]
-JBB is great at PLing 45-51. Good from 51-52, starts to fall behind around 52 (regrowth) and becomes irrelevant at 55 with new pet

All of these claims have been disproven factually. Please ignore Troxx when he makes these claims, as he has no basis for them right now. If he wants to prove his ideas, he still needs to do so.

For people who want the facts on why JBB is better for leveling from 45-60: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671866&postcount=515 .

For people who want the facts on why FSI is the best racial from a Min/Max perspective: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671204&postcount=311

Here is the answer to OP's specific question, which was answered on page 1:

As Toxigen said, JBB isn't necessary for any endgame content.

I still use mine at 60, JBB isn't just for powerleveling. Saving spell slots is always very nice on a Shaman.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=umuVBewCNgY - An example of using JBB on Cliff Golems. I did 5000ish damage with JBB, which is 1/6th of it's life.

Troxx

01-28-2024, 07:01 PM

There is no concession, DSM. We are at an impasse. I have posted the rationale. I have backed it up with the kind of napkin-math you value so much. I have proven you wrong. You are simply incapable of thinking outside whatever box you have constructed in your little mind.

Anyone reading this thread can see that.

See you on the flip side?

GIFS may or may not follow.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-28-2024, 07:03 PM

There is no concession, DSM. We are at an impasse. I have posted the rationale. I have backed it up with the kind of napkin-math you value so much.

Anyone reading this thread can see that.

See you on the flip side?

GIFS may or may not follow.

You cannot claim we are at an impasse when the facts support my argument. You have currently conceded, even if you want to pretend otherwise. Unfortunately your "napkin math" was flawed, and I showed why. If you want to claim victory, you still need to show my latest math to be flawed https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671866&postcount=515 . You have yet to do so. I am glad we had this back and forth, as it honed our data. We were both wrong at times, and learned from each other. You even tried to present some facts for a change, which was great! I consider that a win for the community. You simply fell short in the end and lost, which can happen to anyone.

You are simply incapable of thinking outside whatever box you have constructed in your little mind.

You need to stop posting nonsense like this. It just ruins any claims you have of "arguing in good faith". If you want to be taken seriously, you need to leave this kind of behavior behind.

Troxx

01-28-2024, 08:27 PM

Ok.

https://steemitimages.com/0x0/https://media.giphy.com/media/26FPxFeuN8UA7nqGQ/giphy.gif

Duik

01-28-2024, 10:31 PM

Gif it to me baby. Aaha aha.
And all the ogres say im pretty gay for a straight guy.

Toxigen

01-29-2024, 12:12 PM

i aint gay but $20 is $20

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 01:58 PM

One more small set of changes. Forgot to add the Celerity overhead to the DoT Shaman. Forgot to Add the 1x Cannibalize you do during the Regrowth/Celerity buff sessions. Root should be 27 mana instead of 28 since specialization is a 10% discount. Also forgot to include upkeep costs during pull times.

Criteria
=========
1. Two Level 58 Shamans. One is an Iksar root/rotting, the other is an Ogre with JBB.
2. Mob does 10 DPS while slowed with Togor's Insects.
3. 7000 HP mob, A Ratfink from PoM Rat Maze.
4. Both Shamans have Fungi Tunic.
5. Both Shamans have Regrowth on themselves, and Haste on their Pets.
6. Regrowth has an upkeep of 1.94 mana per tick on Ogres and 1.95 mana per tick on Iksars over an hour.
7. Celerity has an upkeep of 1.25 mana per tick on Ogres and 1.26 mana per tick on Iksars over an hour.
8. Mortal Deftness has an upkeep of 0.26 mana per tick on Ogres over an hour. The Iksar is not using this spell.
9. Average pull time is 3 ticks (18 seconds).
10. 4x Cannibalize 4 from the 4x Regrowth/Celerity buff sessions to prevent HP from being at 100% has an upkeep of 0.99 HP per tick and -0.55 Mana per tick.
11. Total upkeep is 2.9 mana per tick on Ogres and 2.66 mana per tick on Iksars, 1 HP per tick on both.
12. 2.2 DPS from Blight, Hammer of the Scourge for the JBB Shaman. A Shaman with 135 DEX (75 Base + 60 from Buff) has 1.3 PPM. Fight is 2 minutes, so 2.6 procs per fight on average. Halve that because JBB is halving the number of swings. Reduce to 1.0 to cover for the small time where the mob is rooted. Weapon would proc after the first minute on average. 544 / 2 (half ticks) + 40 (DD) = 312 damage. 312 / 132 seconds = ~2.4 DPS, but we can reduce it to 2.2 again to account for root. This is also not including the white damage from the Hammer itself.

Ogre with JBB
=============
- JBB (32.8 DPS) + Hasted Pet (17 DPS) + Blight, Hammer of the Scourge weapon proc (2.2 DPS) = 53 DPS
- 1320 damage taken from face tanking (10 DPS)
- 158 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects after specialization
- 64 Mana spent on upkeep
- 27 Mana spent on 1x Root after specialization to let pet tank for a small period
- 22 HP spent on upkeep
- 120 HP recovered from root. It prevents 80-160 damage at the beginning of the fight, depending on if root breaks after the first or second JBB cast
- 726 HP recovered from Standing Regen (3 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 22 ticks
- 22 Mana recovered from Standing Regen (1 Mana) over 22 ticks

Total HP Spent: 496
Total Mana Spent: 227
Total Fight Time: 132 seconds
Total Meditation Time after combat: 60 seconds to recover 210 Mana. You are still down -136 HP and -17 mana.

192 seconds per encounter. With the 3 tick average pull time, the Shaman would be down -23 Mana and -40 HP per encounter after including upkeep. This will add 1 tick of sitting debt per encounter. Since you are not tied to the 188 second fight time, you can pull earlier if the pull time is longer. 184 or less seconds per encounter on longer pulls, as you are not pulling while fighting.

Iksar without JBB using root/rotting
=============
- 2x Envenomed Bolt (2665 Damage) + 1x Plague (1270 Damage) + Hasted and Regened Pet (17 DPS) = ~37.2 DPS when factoring in DoTs will not be active for the full fight
- 640 Mana spent on 2x Envenomed Bolts
- 300 Mana spent on 1x Plague
- 158 Mana spent on 1x Togor's Insects after specialization
- 27 Mana spent on 1x Root after specialization
- 158 Mana spent on Chloroblast for pet to counter the damage above after specialization
- 83 Mana spent on upkeep
- 61 Mana spent on 1x extra Regrowth upkeep
- 100 Mana and 30 HP spent due to losing 5 Sitting Regen ticks while casting the 5 spells above
- 31 HP spent on upkeep
- 1426 HP recovered from Sitting Regen (16 HP) + Fungi Tunic (15 HP) + Regrowth (15 HP) over 31 ticks
- 651 Mana recovered from Sitting Regen (21 Mana) over 31 ticks
- 485 damage taken to pet (1880 damage - 1395 regenerated from 45 HP a tick), but Chloroblast + 3 tick average pull time would fully recover the pet

Total HP Gained: 1365
Total Mana Spent: 876
Total Fight Time: 188 seconds
Total Recovery Time: 6 seconds. You are down -115 HP and -56 Mana after the fight using Cannibalize 4 during the fight. 1 tick of sitting would put you at -69 HP and -35 Mana.

194 Seconds per encounter. With the 3 tick average pull time, the Shaman would be at -40 Mana per encounter after including upkeep. This will add 2 sitting ticks of debt per encounter. This assumes the Iksar Shaman never fizzled, missed a sitting tick aside from spell casts, never got a spell resist on DoTs, never got a root break, and never got hit during a root break. 188 per encounter on longer pulls. If you choose to pull sooner while the mob is still alive, you need to factor in the risk of leaving your pet by itself to finish the mob.

Realistically the JBB Shaman could start a new encounter 12-18 seconds earlier if they know that the pull is going to be long. Shamans pre-Torpor should not be at 100% HP/Mana while pulling. The DoT Shaman will be spending the full 188 seconds on the encounter. If they decide to pull earlier, they will need to leave the pet alone to finish the mob, which adds risk that the JBB Shaman does not have. The JBB Shaman does not have to worry about fizzling for the most part, missing sitting ticks, spell resists on expensive spells like your DoTs, and root breaks which cost HP and Mana to re-root the mob, plus the loss of at least 1 sitting tick. A resisted JBB cast from time to time costs no mana. A resisted DoT would cost 300 mana, which means you need to spend time out of combat recovering it. This counteracts the occasional JBB resist, which would extend the fight by 8 seconds and cost zero mana.

This is why JBB is better. You end up saving a good amount of HP/Mana per hour by removing many RnG factors from your gameplay. The playstyle is also less complicated.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 03:04 PM

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/2d/f6/25/2df625acf111522a445179d3327a5f86.gif

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 03:13 PM

You're still using 2.2DPS for the scourge proc when it should be 0.75DPS.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 03:25 PM

You're still using 2.2DPS for the scourge proc when it should be 0.75DPS.

You're using averages wrong, again. Please learn how to use them. This entire example is using averages, which are backed up by in-game data.

https://wiki.project1999.com/Weapon_Procs - looking at the formula, (75 Base + 60 from Buff) DEX/170 + 0.5 = 1.3 PPM. The JBB Shaman is in melee combat for 116 seconds when accounting for the 16 seconds you are rooting + pet tanking.

This means you are getting 2.4 procs per encounter baseline on average. You divide this number by 2 so you can account for the JBB reducing the number of swings you are doing per minute by half. 1 proc per encounter is a very safe bet. The final PPM value is therefore 0.5. This means you are getting an average of 1 proc halfway through the fight on a 2 minute fight. It's a coin flip per minute. If Heads is Success and Tails is a failure, you end up with these possibilities: [Heads, Tails] = Full DoT DPS. [Tails, Tails] = Zero DoT DPS. [Tails, Heads] = Half DoT DPS. [Heads, Heads] = Full DoT DPS. Averaging that out you have [1, 0, 1, 0.5] / 4 = 62.5% of DoT damage on average.

I'll just put it down to 50%, which is 544 Total DoT Damage / 2 (Half Ticks) + 40 (Direct Damage) = 312 / 132 = 2.36 DPS. When including white damage, the total should be realistically more like 3-4 DPS, but I keep it at 2.2 DPS just because it already works well enough.

The Shaman can also put on more DEX gear to increase their PPM, as they only have 135 DEX in my example.

Toxigen

01-29-2024, 03:52 PM

yep, we dun gone full 'tard

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 03:52 PM

You're using averages wrong, again. Please learn how to use them.

There you go with the insults. Are you that confident that I'm getting my calculations wrong?

You can't just assume a single proc halfway through the fight. Sometimes there will be long stretches with no procs at all - some fights won't have a single proc. Some fights will have multiple procs back to back - these don't double up the damage, though, because it procs a dot, and so procs don't stack.

You can model the procs as a binomial distribution - a series of weighted coin flips. You can then sum the expected damage from each individual swing and take the average of that.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 03:58 PM

yep, we dun gone full 'tard

https://media3.giphy.com/media/EoqDZ3Osey9PO/200w.gif?cid=6c09b952hjpu3ipgo34hnrsyezvyavrne3cno 0dldf742bs9&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=200w.gif&ct=g

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:00 PM

There you go with the insults. Are you that confident that I'm getting my calculations wrong?

It is genuinely not an insult, nor did I mean it as such. I am stating the fact that you have used averages wrong multiple times in this thread, and have yet to correct the behavior.

You can't just assume a single proc halfway through the fight. Sometimes there will be long stretches with no procs at all - some fights won't have a single proc. Some fights will have multiple procs back to back - these don't double up the damage, though, because it procs a dot, and so procs don't stack.

Of course! Nor am I denying that is what will happen in individual fights.

Melee combat works the exact same way as weapon procs. 10 DPS is the average in our example, but sometimes individual fights will be 7 DPS, 13 DPS, etc. On a long enough timeline it still averages out to 10 DPS.

The reason why you are using averages wrong is because you are trying to put a single variable using one type of average into an equation using a different type of average. It is an apples to oranges comparison.

You are basically saying "There was one fight were I got zero procs per minute, therefore you are getting 0 DPS from the proc across the average of all fights". It's not correct.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 04:06 PM

At 170 Dex you get 1.5 PPM. At 47 delay, that means a swing every 4.7 seconds, or 12.76 swings/minute. At 1.5 PPM, that's 1.5 procs per 12.76 swings, or a proc rate of 11.75% for each swing. I know very little about both weapon delay and proc calculations, so please correct me if I'm wrong here.

JBB has an 8 second cast, and with 132 seconds per fight, that's 16 casts. Let's assume you take a swing before first cast, and lets say you have excellent reflexes, and click JBB almost simultaneously with swinging. Note I see you've fiddled some more with the numbers since I did this calculation; I can update it if you'd like.

Let t=0 be when the mob has been pulled, slowed, and first engaged in melee. A proc here will last 132 seconds, or 22 ticks. A proc here will do 40 + 24 * 22 or 568 damage.
At t=8, second chance to proc. There's (132 - 8) / 6 = 20 (rounded down) ticks left. If there's been no prior proc, a proc is worth 40 + 24 * 20 = 520. If there's a prior proc, only the DD component counts: 40 damage.
So we can build a table:

Now, what are the probabilities of each possible outcome?
At t=0, it's simple: there's a 11.75% chance of a proc.
At t=8, the chance of a proc is 11.75%. There's a 11.75% chance there was a proc at t=0, and an 88.25% chance there was no prior proc.
At t=16, we get to the real meat of the problem. To calculate the chance of a prior proc, there's an 11.75% chance of a proc at t=0, and a 11.75% chance of a proc at t=8, but these are independent possibilities.

1) The chance of a proc at 0 and 8 is 11.75 * 11.75.
2) The chance of a proc at 0 and not 8 is 11.75 * 88.25.
3) The chance of no proc at 0 and a proc at 8 is 88.25 * 11.75
4) The chance of no proc at 0 and no proc at 8 is 88.25 * 88.25

This is a classic binomial distribution. You can also think of this as flipping a coin every 8 seconds, where the chance of heads is 11.75% and the chance of tails is 88.25%.

The relevant formula is the probability mass function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution#Definitions

The vertical (n k) notation is spoken as "n choose k" or sometimes written as nCk and described in more detail here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_coefficient

To apply this to our problem, we can use this formula to calculate the probability of no prior proc, i.e. setting k=0

(n choose 0) * p^0 * (1-p)^(n-0)

(n choose 0) is always 1, so this simplifies to (1 - p)^n

So at each 8 second interval (the variable n), the damage of a proc will be
44 * (1 - (1 - p)^n) + (44 + 24 * (132 - 8*n) / 6) * (1 - p)^n

p is the chance of a proc, or 0.1175

Over a 132 second fight, there's 16 casts, so we need to sum this over n = 0 to 15 inclusive. Let's implement this in Python; perhaps that will be easier to follow:

p = 0.1175

def no_prior(n, fight_length = 132):
"""" 44 dd plus 24 per tick remaining in the fight """
from math import floor
ticks_remaining = floor((fight_length - 8 * n) / 6)
return 44 + 24 * ticks_remaining

def prior(n):
"""" if there's been a prior proc, only the dd matters """
return 44

expected_damage = 0
for n in range(0, 16):
prior_probability = pow(1 - p, n)
expected_damage_this_interval = prior(n) * prior_probability + no_prior(n) * (1 - prior_probability)
expected_damage += expected_damage_this_interval

print(expected_damage)

Duik

01-29-2024, 04:08 PM

I am right. EVERYBODY ELSE IS WRONG.
Especially at math, but especially at math.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:08 PM

This is a classic binomial distribution. You can also think of this as flipping a coin every 8 seconds, where the chance of heads is 11.75% and the chance of tails is 88.25%.

Exactly your problem. You are using a single Binomial distribution in an equation where all other variables are not binomial distributions. It's an apples to oranges comparison. You are plugging in an incorrect variable into the equation.

The reason why people can use "PPM" as a metric is because when you have 1 PPM, you get 1 proc per minute on average. It's really that simple. You wouldn't be able to say that if the average never came out to be 1 proc per minute.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 04:13 PM

Exactly your problem. You are using a single Binomial distribution in an equation where all other variables are not binomial distributions. It's an apples to oranges comparison.

That... that makes no sense. I have no idea how to interpret this. Do you know what a probability distribution is?

Do we need to go through this more slowly?

Troxx

01-29-2024, 04:15 PM

The assumption that this mob will do 10dps to you swinging a 2handed weapon instead of wearing a shield is also a farce. You will take more damage without the shield ac. You will also have to deal with some degree of ripostes.

I bet the JBB shaman would likely fair better by just equipping a shield and not trying to land 2hb procs to begin with. However much damage you think you’ll be taking … you’ll be taking more if you equip that hammer.

Duik

01-29-2024, 04:15 PM

This is great. I dont actually know the answer. But I have clues.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 04:15 PM

Do we need to go through this more slowly?

Yes. Pretend you’re talking to a junior high school kid.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:22 PM

That... that makes no sense. I have no idea how to interpret this. Do you know what a probability distribution is?

Do we need to go through this more slowly?

I know you don't understand it. That is why you keep using averages incorrectly.

Let me go a bit more slowly for you.

In our example, you basically get 6 swings per minute with a 1/12 chance of proccing. It is like rolling a D12 six times in a row, hoping to get a specific number. Let's say a "success" is rolling twelve. Since the fight lasts 2 minutes, that means we get twelve chances to roll a d12.

We are not looking for a set of numbers to roll in a sequence (what are the odds of rolling a 6 and then a 3). This means each dice roll has a 1/12 chance of succeeding equally.

Worst case is you roll the twelve after 12 dice rolls. Best case is you roll the twelve on the first attempt. 1 roll + 12 rolls / 2 = 6.5 rolls on average to get your number. So on average you will proc it roughly half way through the fight.

Toxigen

01-29-2024, 04:27 PM

jesus

titty

fkin

christ

Troxx

01-29-2024, 04:27 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:28 PM

Look man he already spelled it out for you very comprehensively:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671968&postcount=531

It is absolutely ok to admit it went over your head. I imagine that level of math would go over most college educated adults heads.

You aren’t going to win a math fight with a senior engineer bro

A title means nothing if you still cannot do the math correctly. Argument from authority is a fallacy.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671977&postcount=538 - This is how proc chance works on P99. If it didn't, you couldn't use "Procs Per Minute" as an accurate metric. If your DEX gives you 2 procs per minute, you get 2 procs per minute on average, assuming you never stop auto attacking. There will be fights where you get 0 procs, and fights where you get 4 procs, but it will average out to 2 procs on average.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 04:29 PM

Troxx

01-29-2024, 04:31 PM

Bcbrown’s masterclass is in session!

/popcorn

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:34 PM

Let's simplify the problem a little, and assume there's only three swings in the fight, they happen 8 seconds apart, and each swing has a 1/12 chance of a proc.

Using Y for a proc and N for no proc, there's 2^3 or eight possible outcomes:
YYY
YYN
YNY
YNN
NYY
NYN
NNY
NNN

In each of these eight outcomes, how much total damage does the proc do?

You are thinking about the problem incorrectly.

Proccing is the exact same concept as rolling a D12 twelve times in a row and hoping for one specific number one time. Worst case you get the number after 12 rolls, best case you get the number after 1 roll.

Average is rolling 6.5 times to get the specific number you want.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 04:36 PM

Proccing is the exact same concept as rolling a D12 twelve times in a row and hoping for one specific number one time. Worst case you get the number after 12 rolls, best case you get the number after 1 roll.

If you're hoping for a 1, and you roll a D12 twelve times, you are not guaranteed to get a 1.

This is because each roll is independent. Rolling eleven 12s doesn't change the probability that the next roll is a 1.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:41 PM

If you're hoping for a 1, and you roll a D12 twelve times, you are not guaranteed to get a 1.

Of course not! But on average if you roll a d12 twelve times, you will get a 1 at least once. I never said it is a guarantee. I said it is the average.

You don't seem to realize that the other DPS values in my example are calculated in the exact same way. If you disagree with the proc rate average, then you must also disagree with all of the other average DPS's in the example, and change them too. You do not get to cherry pick one number and change it simply to make your side look better.

Duik

01-29-2024, 04:43 PM

So doc brown is saying 2ppm may be true (over the whole liftime of everything) but he is trying to determine the difference and chances of a proc happening AND at what point in a short battle it happens?
Each 2 mims there could be a proc but just cuz there is none dont mean one will come next minute.
Just cuz there is a proc this minute dont mean there wont be one again that minute. They are seperate entities unreliant on each other.

I -- edit-- DONT --edit-- fully get his math but im getting the difference between 2ppm and the statistical chances of and distribution of proc(s) during a battle of x length.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 04:45 PM

Of course not! But on average if you roll a d12 twelve times, you will get a 1 at least once. I never said it is a guarantee. I said it is the average.

You don't seem to realize that the other DPS values in my example are calculated in the exact same way. If you disagree with the proc rate average, then you must also disagree with all of the other average DPS's in the example, and change them too. You do not get to cherry pick one number and change it simply to make your side look better.

The proc rate is the only calculation where the damage from a successful event is not independent on prior events. This is the point you're failing to understand.

Every other damage calculation is independent. The damage of the second Winter's Roar is independent of the first Winter's Roar. The damage done by a second proc is not independent of whether the first swing procced.

Duik gets it.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 04:47 PM

Truth: you will have lots of fights with no procs at all
Truth: you will have lots of fights with lots of procs
Truth: the nature of this proc is that it does not stack additively to add extra value
Truth: some fights you will proc early.
Truth some fights you will proc very late

It is truth 3 specifically that is going to hose you. If the proc was a raw 500+ DD it would indeed average with time. Those fights where you went ham with early and frequent procs would result in a measurably shorter kill time. But if you score an early proc it is not like any subsequent procs will add more than the tiny DD component.

Bcbrown’s analysis is correct. Understanding it requires fluency in these mathematical principles. I will admit I’m nowhere near as fluent in this realm as bcbrown … but I’m also not an engineer or a mathematician.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:48 PM

The proc rate is the only calculation where the damage from a successful event is not independent on prior events. This is the point you're failing to understand.

Every other damage calculation is independent. The damage of the second Winter's Roar is independent of the first Winter's Roar. The damage done by a second proc is not independent of whether the first swing procced.

That is what you are missing. Proc rate is also independent, because proc rate isn't affected by whether or not you land a hit on the mob. You just need to SWING. This means it works the same way as melee combat.

When you swing, let's say you have a 50% chance to hit or miss. At the same exact time that you swing, you have a 12% chance to proc the weapon. There is nothing more complicated going on. They are both independent dice rolls that trigger on a per swing basis.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 04:50 PM

“Successful event” here meant a successful proc. We all know you can proc on a miss. Im not sure how you misinterpreted that.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 04:50 PM

Proc rate is independent. Damage dealt is not.

Two procs back to back don't result in twice as much damage.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 04:51 PM

Two procs back to back don't result in twice as much damage.

For Direct damage spells you do get twice the damage. For DoTs specifically you get the Direct Damage component of the DoT + X amount of ticks. That is why I reduced the damage by 50%, because on average it will proc halfway through the fight. You are getting half the DoT ticks on average.

[1 roll, 2 rolls, 3 rolls, 4 rolls, 5 rolls, 6 rolls, 7 rolls, 8 rolls , 9 rolls, 10 rolls, 11 rolls, 12 rolls] / 12 roll attempts = 6.5 rolls on average to get any specific number one time on a D12. This means you will get a proc halfway through the fight on average, as you will roll the specific number you want after 6.5 attempts on average.

Danth

01-29-2024, 04:59 PM

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 05:01 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 05:01 PM

Point is that since it's a DOT, when you get multiple procs in rapid succession the later procs go largely wasted because the effects don't stack. Just refreshes the already longer-than-needed duration. Hence the effective useful proc rate is lesser than the real proc rate. Other weapons with long-acting procs, like Narandi lance, suffer a similar limitation.

A Barbarian using the Winter's Roar hammer between bracer clicks does well for this type of thing, especially if he slows himself.

I understand precisely what they are saying, and I have always taken that into account:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671994&postcount=553

Maybe we can simplify the problem even further, and just consider two swings. This is a 16 second fight, meaning the third JBB results in mob death.
Ticks happen at times 0, 6, 12
One swing happens at t=0. If it procs, it does 44 + 24 * 3 or 116 damage
The second swing happens at t=8. If there was no prior proc, it does 44 + 24 * 1 or 68 damage. If there was a prior proc, it does 44 damage.

If both swings proc, the total damage is 116 + 44, or 160 damage.
If just the first swing procs, the total damage is 116.
If just the second swing procs, the total damage is 68.
If neither swing procs, the total damage is 0.

You with me so far?

You still haven't addressed this post, you can't simply ignore it: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671994&postcount=553

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 05:05 PM

I'm trying to address it. I'm breaking down how I'm addressing it into smaller chunks. Please humor me and follow along, and I'll show how it ties in to your earlier post.

Ripqozko

01-29-2024, 05:05 PM

Kittens sure have gone downhill

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 05:08 PM

I'm trying to address it. I'm breaking down how I'm addressing it into smaller chunks. Please humor me and follow along, and I'll show how it ties in to your earlier post.

You haven't addressed it, you keep ignoring it. Please address it before making another example.

Danth

01-29-2024, 05:09 PM

I understand precisely what they are saying, and I have always taken that into account

The way you worded that it appears you're discussing procs individually. If you're accounting for it, then it's merely a muddled word choice issue, thanks for clearing it up. Due to the length of this particular weapon effect, a late proc means you lose both the un-used portion of the DOT once the mob dies, as well as future procs in the same encounter go largely wasted. This similated activity works against this specific weapon; as noted the Barbarian variant would be preferred. How does the Velious ice proc spear compare for non-barbarians?

Toxigen

01-29-2024, 05:10 PM

c u in page 100

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 05:15 PM

The way you worded that it appears you're discussing procs individually. If you're accounting for it, then it's merely a muddled word choice issue, thanks for clearing it up. Due to the length of this particular weapon effect, a late proc means you lose both the un-used portion of the DOT once the mob dies, as well as future procs in the same encounter go largely wasted.

Exactly.

In my example you have 0.5 procs per minute, and the fight lasts 2 minutes.

Worst case is you proc the DoT at the end of combat, meaning you just get 40 damage from the DD and nothing else.

Best case is you proc the DoT on your first swing. That is the full 544 damage basically, because the fight just so happens to last the same duration of the DoT. It will probably be 2 ticks short of the fight, as you would only be in melee combat for 116 seconds out of 132, which is 19 ticks instead of 21. That would only reduce the total damage to 496, which wouldn't significantly drop the DPS number, especially when taking into consideration white damage.

You have a 1/12 chance to proc the weapon per swing, and you have 12 swings in the fight. Each swing has an equal chance to proc the weapon. This means on average you are getting a proc halfway through the fight after 6 attempts.

Halfway through the fight is ~10 ticks. On average you are getting 240 damage from the DoT ticks at 24 damage per tick, and 40 from the DD. That is 280 Damage, which is 2.1 DPS roughly speaking. This is not including white damage from the Hammer, which means you are realistically getting higher DPS when taking that into consideration.

Danth

01-29-2024, 05:25 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 05:32 PM

Worst case is when you get a few procs in a row because the effect of the second or third procs goes mostly wasted. If expected proc rate is .5 PPM (due to bracer spam taking up many melee rounds), *useful* proc rate will be fractionally less. I do not think the difference is going to be enough to materially affect the outcome of the simulation. They're broadly similar, and they'll still be broadly similar after such adjustment.

I'm highly interested in clicks-per-minute between the two styles.

Oh I already took into account the JBB spam affecting number of swings. We are reducing the number of swings by half already to get the final 0.5 procs per minute number. The Ogre has 135 DEX, so normally they would have 1.3 procs per minute, which translates to 2.6 procs per 2 minute fight. The Blight Hammer has 47 delay, which means you get roughly 2 swings per 8 seconds. So you reduce the number of swings and procs by half. This means you actually get 0.65 procs per minute in my example, I just dropped it to 0.5 for easy numbers.

People also forget that we are not including white damage, and the Ogre can put on more DEX gear for extra proc rates. Trying to quibble over 1 DPS to try and make the DoTing Shaman look a bit better is not really helping the debate.

Danth

01-29-2024, 05:37 PM

Your rounding to 1.0 instead of 1.3 should defacto compensate for the other issue brought up, especially if you also ignored white damage.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 05:40 PM

Your rounding to 1.0 instead of 1.3 should defacto compensate for the other issue brought up, especially if you also ignored white damage.

Agreed.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 05:41 PM

Worst case is when you get a few procs in a row because the effect of the second or third procs goes mostly wasted.

This is what DSM hasn't incorporated yet.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 05:41 PM

This is what DSM hasn't incorporated yet.

I already did. You just don't understand averages, as I keep telling you. This isn't an insult, you are simply not looking at the problem correctly.

The funny part is the DoT has a DD component, so getting 3x procs in a row would still result in 120 damage base, even if 0 ticks occur. On average I would get 5 or so white damage hits assuming half miss and 1 gets dodged. If I got even 20 damage per swing on average, that would be 220 damage minimum in that specific scenario. If I got even 2 ticks of the DoT, that would be 268 damage, which is 2 DPS.

Danth

01-29-2024, 05:49 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 05:53 PM

Did you keep track of average actions-per-minute between the two play styles? It was a long thread; I might've missed it. To me that's more important than a few seconds here or there in average killspeed. How much labor is the JBB saving?

The DoTing Shaman requires a lot more labor. You have to never miss a server tick when casting spells that are under 6 seconds, even in combat when you can't really do that easily. You have to cast 10x cannibalizes and 5x spells per encounter minimum, plus you have to always be ready to deal with root breaks and spell resists.

JBB Shaman turns on auto attack, slows, sometimes roots to let the pet tank if they need to reduce a bit of damage, and press JBB every 8 seconds.

Both Shamans need to recast Regrowth, Celerity, and Cannibalize once every 15 minutes, with the DoTing Shaman needing to cast an additional Regrowth on the pet.

Basically my example for the DoTing Shaman was assuming the perfect scenario: You never fizzle, never get spell resists, never get root breaks, never take damage (even once), and you never miss a server tick.

This is why JBB is better. You end up saving quite a bit of mana and effort from not having to deal with most of that stuff.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 05:55 PM

For Direct damage spells you do get twice the damage. For DoTs specifically you get the Direct Damage component of the DoT + X amount of ticks. That is why I reduced the damage by 50%, because on average it will proc halfway through the fight. You are getting half the DoT ticks on average.

[1 roll, 2 rolls, 3 rolls, 4 rolls, 5 rolls, 6 rolls, 7 rolls, 8 rolls , 9 rolls, 10 rolls, 11 rolls, 12 rolls] / 12 roll attempts = 6.5 rolls on average to get any specific number one time on a D12. This means you will get a proc halfway through the fight on average, as you will roll the specific number you want after 6.5 attempts on average.

We're trying to calculate an expected value, the expected damage done by scourge procs. Keeping a copy of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value and https://www.stat.purdue.edu/~zhanghao/STAT511/handout/Stt511%20Sec3.3.pdf open will be helpful here.

The way you calculate an expected value is by summing up all the possible outcomes, each multiplied by it's probability weight. Our random variable, X, is in this case the event of a proc.

E[X] = sum over all x of E[x]

The probability weight is the proc rate, or 1/12. The expected number of procs with your 12 rolls is going to be the sum from 1 to 12 of 1/12, or 1. We are in agreement here.

But we're not just interested in the expected number of procs, we're interested in the expected damage dealt.

There's an identity, that for a linear function of x, the expected value of the function is the function of the expected value of X:
E[aX] = a * E[X]

This is the calculation you are doing. E[d(x)] = d(E[x]). However, the expected damage is a function of time, and it is also a function of whether or not there has been a prior proc.

Therefore, the linearity of expectation does not hold, and it is neccessary to calculate the sum over all the possible outcomes.

This is why you cannot simply multiply the damage by the average time for a proc to hit.

Danth

01-29-2024, 05:59 PM

The DoTing Shaman requires a lot more labor.

Right. I was curious if you tried to put it into exact values for expected actions-per-minute in the manner that you did the kill-rate calculation down to the second. We know the JBB is less actions, but how much less? Is it five per cent less, or ten per cent, or fifty per cent less, or something in the middle?

If not, that's fine too, I'm not about to specifically ask someone to add up something I could do myself if I was sufficiently motivated. Just checking if you already calculated that as part of tyhe simulation.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 06:12 PM

Right. I was curious if you tried to put it into exact values for expected actions-per-minute in the manner that you did the kill-rate calculation down to the second. We know the JBB is less actions, but how much less? Is it five per cent less, or ten per cent, or fifty per cent less, or something in the middle?

If not, that's fine too, I'm not about to specifically ask someone to add up something I could do myself if I was sufficiently motivated. Just checking if you already calculated that as part of tyhe simulation.

I didn't actually, but I can do a quick calculation.

You would cast 22 spells on average for the JBB Shaman. 20/22 of those spells are JBB. You are pressing 4 buttons for slow + root, as you are also clicking your GCD item once each. 20 buttons for JBB, and 1 button for pet attack. Roughly 25 buttons over 2 minutes of combat. Then you press sit and rest for 1 minute. 26 Actions over 3 minutes I would say, or 8.66.

You would cast 15 spells on average for the DoTing Shaman. Each of these spells requires a GCD click, so that is 30 buttons minimum (assuming you have a macro for canni dance) and 1 for pet attack. 31 actions over 3 minutes I woul say, or 10.33. Maybe 32 if you need to sit manually after your final spell if it was not canni dance.

Neither of these numbers are very big, so I wouldn't say the APM difference matters too much. It is all the other things I mentioned before that really widen the gap between JBB and DoTing.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 06:16 PM

The probability weight is the proc rate, or 1/12. The expected number of procs with your 12 rolls is going to be the sum from 1 to 12 of 1/12, or 1. We are in agreement here.

But we're not just interested in the expected number of procs, we're interested in the expected damage dealt.

Agreed!

There's an identity, that for a linear function of x, the expected value of the function is the function of the expected value of X:
E[aX] = a * E[X]

This is the calculation you are doing. E[d(x)] = d(E[x]). However, the expected damage is a function of time, and it is also a function of whether or not there has been a prior proc.

Therefore, the linearity of expectation does not hold, and it is neccessary to calculate the sum over all the possible outcomes.

This is why you cannot simply multiply the damage by the average time for a proc to hit.

This is where you are incorrect. You get 1 proc per fight on a 2 minute fight in the specific example I gave. On average that means you will get a proc halfway through the fight. That is an average of 9-10 ticks plus the DD. If you proc the weapon again during that time, you just get another DD proc (more damage), and the DoT continues to tick damage normally, as if the second proc never occured.

If the DoT is doing an average of 9-10 ticks, that is 10 x 24 (Damage per tick) + 40 (Direct Damage) = ~2.1 DPS per fight on average. This is not taking into account white damage, and the proc rate is actually 0.65, which means you are probably getting another tick or two on average.

Remember we are looking the the average over all possible fights, not an individual fight where you could get 0 procs, 10 procs, etc. Your average procs per minute is still 0.65.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 06:26 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 06:28 PM

You aren't even attempting to engage with me. The linearity of expectation does not hold, and this is why your calculation is founded upon false premises.

You need to actually sum up all the possible outcomes, weighted by the probability for each outcome. This is the calculation I did.

I am engaging with you. You are incorrect, but you keep asserting you are not. This is why I say you don't understand averages. I am genuinely not insulting you here, you are simply wrong.

I've given you the proper averages multiple times now:

For Direct damage spells you do get twice the damage [if they proc twice in a row consecutively without a resist]. For DoTs specifically you get the Direct Damage component of the DoT + X amount of ticks [assuming no resist]. That is why I reduced the damage by 50%, because on average it will proc halfway through the fight. You are getting half the DoT ticks on average.

[1 roll, 2 rolls, 3 rolls, 4 rolls, 5 rolls, 6 rolls, 7 rolls, 8 rolls , 9 rolls, 10 rolls, 11 rolls, 12 rolls] / 12 roll attempts = 6.5 rolls on average to get any specific number one time on a D12. This means you will get a proc halfway through the fight on average, as you will roll the specific number you want after 6.5 attempts on average. [This means you are getting roughly 10 DoT ticks (60 seconds) on average in the specific example of a 2 minute fight where you get 1 proc per fight]

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 06:36 PM

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 06:39 PM

Now let's instead assume the proc is a DD that does 44 damage.

1) If both swings proc, the total damage is 88
2) If just the first swing procs, the total damage is 44.
3) If just the second swing procs, the total damage is 44.
4) If neither swing procs, the total damage is 0.

Case 1 happens with probability 1/12 * 1/12
Case 2 happens with probability 1/12 * 11/12
Case 3 happens with probability 11/12 * 1/12
Case 4 happens with probability 11/12 * 11/12

The total expected damage is the sum of the expected damage of each of the four cases, weighted by the probability
88 * 1/144 + 44 * 11/144 + 44 * 11/144 + 0 * 121/144

The total expected damage is 7.33

Your calculation in this case would be: on average, there's a 1/6 chance of a proc. 1/6 * 44 is 7.33. The numbers match, because the damage is linear to the number of procs.

It does not match in the DoT example, because the damage is not linear to the number of procs

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 07:40 PM

Maybe we can simplify the problem even further, and just consider two swings. This is a 16 second fight, meaning the third JBB results in mob death.
Ticks happen at times 0, 6, 12
One swing happens at t=0. If it procs, it does 44 + 24 * 3 or 116 damage
The second swing happens at t=8. If there was no prior proc, it does 44 + 24 * 1 or 68 damage. If there was a prior proc, it does 44 damage.

1) If both swings proc, the total damage is 116 + 44, or 160 damage.
2) If just the first swing procs, the total damage is 116.
3) If just the second swing procs, the total damage is 68.
4) If neither swing procs, the total damage is 0.

Case 1 happens with probability 1/12 * 1/12
Case 2 happens with probability 1/12 * 11/12
Case 3 happens with probability 11/12 * 1/12
Case 4 happens with probability 11/12 * 11/12

The total expected damage is the sum of the expected damage of each of the four cases, weighted by the probability
160 * 1/144 + 116 * 11/144 + 68 * 11/144 + 0 * 121/144

The total expected damage is 15.1 in this scenario

I think I see the disconnect here. You don't seem to realize how nicely the DoT time and the fight time happen to align in my specific example of 53 DPS on a 7000 HP mob. The fight lasts 132 seconds, and the DoT lasts 132 seconds if you include the initial DD.

Let's assume we still have the 0.5 PPM (procs per minute) value. A 3 tick fight doesn't have a 0.5 PPM value, because it doesn't last a full minute. You should get 3 swings with the hammer if the fight lasts 18 seconds. You'll hit initially, and once after each JBB cast. Our example assumed we swing 6 times per minute, which is how we got the 1/12. This means you have a 0.5 x 0.5 chance to proc = 25% chance to proc per fight. The number is a bit weird here because you swing as soon as you turn on auto attack.

Damage per tick set based on when the weapon procs: [0 damage (no proc), 40 (0 ticks), 64 (1 tick), 88 (2 ticks), 112 (3 ticks)] / 5 = 60.8 x (0.5 PPM x 0.5) = 15.2 damage (the value you got)

Damage per tick set based on when the weapon procs: [0, 40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280, 304, 328, 352, 376, 400, 424, 448, 472, 496, 520, 544] / 23 = (279 x 0.5 PPM) x 2.0 = 279 damage, or 2.1 DPS (the damage value I got)

Now obviously the DoT in my fight will last 2 ticks less on average, since I am not meleeing for the first 2 ticks. But the real PPM is 0.65, and we are ignoring the white damage, so in reality 2.2 DPS is a very reasonable number, it is probably closer to 3 DPS.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 08:08 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 08:13 PM

My example was two swings over a 16 second fight. Your example was three swings over an 18 second fight. You came up with a number that was similar but not the same as the number I came up with. You've refused to address my calculations: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3671968#post3671968

I'm bored with trying to teach you probability. I consider my previous posts a sufficient explanation, and won't bother correcting you on this topic any more.

3 ticks is 18 seconds. You're example is a 3 tick fight. In your example you would get a third swing after the JBB hits. The trouble is an individual 3 tick fight would either have 2 swings or 3, depending on if your auto attack timer was recovering from a previous fight or not.

I know you think you understand how the averages work, but you don't. Hopefully you can admit to that at some point.

Duik

01-29-2024, 08:21 PM

DSM, did you ditch university after realising ALL of the professors are idiots who dont understand stuff?
I dont really expect (or want) an answer its more of a collective thought experiment.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 08:23 PM

DSM, did you ditch university after realising ALL of the professors are idiots who dont understand stuff?
I dont really expect (or want) an answer its more of a collective thought experiment.

Basic averages are simple mathematics. Bcbrown is not using mathematics correctly.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 08:26 PM

Did you keep track of average actions-per-minute between the two play styles? It was a long thread; I might've missed it. To me that's more important than a few seconds here or there in average killspeed. How much labor is the JBB saving?

One is a click (action) every 8 seconds after the mob is in camp for 130-140 seconds 16-17 clicks + maybe a root once it runs over the course of 130-140 seconds

The other is 1 root, 3 dots (4 actions) and 10 casts of canni IV over 188 seconds (14 actions).

What each shaman does to get the mob into camp (pull it slow it etc) is the same.

The dotting approach is fewer actions per minute. The JBB is more mindless in terms of actions/timing.

Canni dancing is not difficult. If you haven’t figured out how to do it by level 55+, there’s a lack of brain cells in the equation. It was muscle memory for me within a few hours of getting the first canni spell.

Duik

01-29-2024, 08:27 PM

That was clearly not the question. Add reading comprehension to your deficiencies list please.

Duik

01-29-2024, 08:30 PM

Do sham dots with dd component technically count as (potential) root breaking damage? Just curious.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 08:38 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 08:45 PM

Bcbrown, thanks for trying. Your math skills are clearly well above mine, but you did a good job explaining it and given the dynamics of a long duration proc you are correct. You cannot simply assume that the dot, on average, will be up for 50% of every fight.

Especially when the delay of the weapon is so far below the cast time of this weapon.

Whatever your proc per minute should be, you’re gonna have to nearly cut that in half because the bracer has an 8 second cast time

I do appreciate Bcbrown for trying. He simply didn't succeed. Same with yourself earlier in the thread.

I am not sure what the benefit is to your argument of quibbiling over ~1 DPS when we were never including the white damage or the 0.15 extra PPM to being with. It doesn't tip the scales anyway in the DoT Shaman's favor. You would almost certainly end up with ~2 DPS after white damage minimum even if you wanted to reduce the damage.

I also just did a test in game with a 50 delay weapon while spamming JBB. You actually get 1 swing after JBB no matter what, because the timer refreshes during the JBB cast. So you actually get 8 swings per minute instead of 6, just as an FYI.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 08:51 PM

I also just did a test in game with a 50 delay weapon while spamming JBB. You actually get 1 swing after JBB no matter what, because the timer refreshes during the JBB cast. So you actually get 8 swings per minute instead of 6, just as an FYI.

No shit Sherlock. That’s how the game works. Unless your weapon delay is over 80 (and without any spell or worn haste), you will get 1 swing with each JBB click (8 sec cast time)

Did you not already know that?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 08:52 PM

No shit Sherlock. That’s how the game works. Unless your weapon delay is over 80 (and without any spell or worn haste), you will get 1 swing with each JBB click (8 sec cast time)

Did you not already know that?

Yikes.

Troxx

01-29-2024, 08:55 PM

What is “yikes” is you apparently didn’t already know that before that test you just did in game.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 08:57 PM

What is “yikes” is you apparently didn’t already know that before that test you just did in game.

When you can't win with facts and logic, attack the other person. Classic Troxx.

Ripqozko

01-29-2024, 09:03 PM

When you can't win with facts and logic, attack the other person. Classic Troxx.

DSM is Ben shapiro confirmed

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 09:04 PM

This means the Blight Hammer is swinging 12.5 times per minute normally and the JBB Shaman actually has 7.5 swings per minute.

A Shaman with 135 DEX has 1.3 PPM. Using 7.5/12.5 swings per minute, that means they have 0.78 PPM. That is 1.56 procs over a two minute fight.

This shifts the DPS further in the JBB Shaman's favor.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 09:05 PM

3 ticks is 18 seconds. You're example is a 3 tick fight. In your example you would get a third swing after the JBB hits. The trouble is an individual 3 tick fight would either have 2 swings or 3, depending on if your auto attack timer was recovering from a previous fight or not.

I know you think you understand how the averages work, but you don't. Hopefully you can admit to that at some point.

Fine, one last attempt.
18 second fight, 8 second JBB cast, so one swing every 8 seconds. Dot is 40 DD plus 24 damage per tick.

What is the dex value that we're using, aka what does https://wiki.project1999.com/Weapon_Procs calculate for our PPM?
Delay value is "47", so that means 4.7 seconds? 60/4.7 = 12.7 swings per minute? And since we're using JBB, the actual delay is 8 seconds?

Server ticks happen at t=0, 6, 12, 18. A proc that hits at t=0 will have 40dd plus how many ticks? Does it get ticks for all of 0, 6, 12, 18? If not, which tick isn't included in the calculation?
Swings happen at t=0, t=8, t=16, right?

If a swing procs at t=16, how much damage would it do? 40dd plus 1 tick of 24?

We're calculating how much damage we expect should happen on average just after the tick that happens at 18 seconds?

If this is all correct, can you repost your calculation in this scenario?

Duik

01-29-2024, 09:25 PM

Only 40 pages to go!

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 10:02 PM

Fine, one last attempt.
18 second fight, 8 second JBB cast, so one swing every 8 seconds. Dot is 40 DD plus 24 damage per tick.

What is the dex value that we're using, aka what does https://wiki.project1999.com/Weapon_Procs calculate for our PPM?
Delay value is "47", so that means 4.7 seconds? 60/4.7 = 12.7 swings per minute? And since we're using JBB, the actual delay is 8 seconds?

Server ticks happen at t=0, 6, 12, 18. A proc that hits at t=0 will have 40dd plus how many ticks? Does it get ticks for all of 0, 6, 12, 18? If not, which tick isn't included in the calculation?
Swings happen at t=0, t=8, t=16, right?

If a swing procs at t=16, how much damage would it do? 40dd plus 1 tick of 24?

We're calculating how much damage we expect should happen on average just after the tick that happens at 18 seconds?

If this is all correct, can you repost your calculation in this scenario?

Sure!

1. 135 DEX (75 base + 60 from Mortal Deftness) = 135/170 + 0.5 = 1.3 Procs Per Minute, assuming you only auto attack.

2. Hammer swings immediately when turning auto attack on at the start of the fight, and after every JBB cast. This is 7.5/12.5 swings per minute. 7.5/12.5 = 0.6 x 1.3 = 0.78 Procs Per Minute using JBB.

3. We can use 4 server ticks if you want to include 0. This means t=0, t=6, t=12, t=18.

4. Swing is at t=0, t=8, t=16. 3 Swings total.

5. 3 swings/7.5 swings = 40% of our normal PPM. 0.78 x 0.4 = 31.2% chance to proc per 18 second fight.

6. DoT does 40 damage on hit, and 24 damage per tick.

7. Damage Set in an 18 second fight: [0 damage (no proc), 40 damage from DD (t = 0), 64 damage (t = 6), 88 damage (t = 12), 112 damage (t = 18)] / 5 = 60.8 x 0.312 = 18.97 / 18 = 1.05 DPS

9. Damage Set in a 60 second fight: [0 , 40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280] / 12 = 146.66 x 0.78 = 114.4 / 60 = 1.9 DPS.

10. Damage Set in a 132 second fight (removing 16 seconds for rooting and pet tanking at the start): [0, 0, 0, 40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280, 304, 328, 352, 376, 400, 424, 448, 472, 496] / 23 = 233 x 1.56 = 363.55 / 132 = 2.75 DPS.

The DPS value is higher in this example for the 132 second fight because we are using the correct 0.78 PPM value instead of the estimated 0.5 PPM value from previous posts.

The reason why this math works is because you have an equal chance to proc the DoT on any swing during the fight, adjusted for PPM. Remember this is also NOT including white damage, or extra Direct Damage from additional procs.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 10:16 PM

7. Damage Set in an 18 second fight: [0 damage (no proc), 40 damage from DD (t = 0), 64 damage (t = 6), 88 damage (t = 12), 112 damage (t = 18)] / 5 = 60.8 x 0.312 = 18.97 / 18 = 1.05 DPS

Can I reword this and see if you agree?
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, damage is 112: 40 + three ticks of 24. Those three ticks are the t=6, 12, 18 ticks
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=8 swing, damage is 88: 40 + two ticks of 24. Those two ticks are the 12, 18 ticks
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=16 swing, damage is 64: 40 + one tick of 24. That is the 18 tick
If there's no proc, damage is 0.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 10:25 PM

Can I reword this and see if you agree?
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, damage is 112: 40 + three ticks of 24. Those three ticks are the t=6, 12, 18 ticks
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=8 swing, damage is 88: 40 + two ticks of 24. Those two ticks are the 12, 18 ticks
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=16 swing, damage is 64: 40 + one tick of 24. That is the 18 tick
If there's no proc, damage is 0.

Sure. You didn't include the proc rate, however.

Duik

01-29-2024, 10:26 PM

Answered above

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 10:29 PM

Sure. You didn't include the proc rate, however.

One point of note: You're saying that in the first scenario, there's no tick at t=0?

If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, damage is 112: 40 + three ticks of 24. Those three ticks are the t=6, 12, 18 ticks

Should it be 112 or 136? Should we include the tick at t=0?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 10:37 PM

One point of note: You're saying that in the first scenario, there's no tick at t=0?

If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, damage is 112: 40 + three ticks of 24. Those three ticks are the t=6, 12, 18 ticks

Should it be 112 or 136? Should we include the tick at t=0?

It's 112. In all scenarios the Dot doesn't tick immediately when it lands. t=0 is the DD (40), t=6 is DD +1 tick of DoT Damage (64), t=12 is DD + 2 ticks of DoT Damage (88), t=18 is DD + 3 ticks of DoT Damage (112).

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 10:49 PM

Noted and agreed upon - 112 damage for a single proc at t=0.

Sure!

1. 135 DEX (75 base + 60 from Mortal Deftness) = 135/170 + 0.5 = 1.3 Procs Per Minute, assuming you only auto attack.

2. Hammer swings immediately when turning auto attack on at the start of the fight, and after every JBB cast. This is 7.5/12.5 swings per minute. 7.5/12.5 = 0.6 x 1.3 = 0.78 Procs Per Minute using JBB.

3. We can use 4 server ticks if you want to include 0. This means t=0, t=6, t=12, t=18.

5. 3 swings/7.5 swings = 40% of our normal PPM. 0.78 x 0.4 = 31.2% chance to proc per 18 second fight.

1.3 base rate PPM.

Base delay is 4.7 seconds, or 60/4.7 = 12.76 swings per minute. At a base rate of 1.3 PPM, that means each swing is:
(1.3 Proc/minute) / (12.76 swings/minute) or 0.10 procs/swing - every swing has a 10% chance to proc.

Because we only swing every 8 seconds, we get 7.5 swings per minute.

Since, for the binomial distribution, E[X] = np, or the probability per event times the number of events, 10% * 7.5 or 0.75 procs per minute. This is close enough to your 0.78 procs per minute - I think the difference is that I'm using 12.76 swings/minute and you're using 12.5. If I calculate the expected number of procs in 3 swings using 12.5 instead, I also get 31.2%

This good with you? Mind if I continue using 12.76 swings/minute?

Oh, and I will be including the possibility of an extra 40dd if there's more than one proc.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 10:59 PM

Noted and agreed upon - 112 damage for a single proc at t=0.

1.3 base rate PPM.

Base delay is 4.7 seconds, or 60/4.7 = 12.76 swings per minute. At a base rate of 1.3 PPM, that means each swing is:
(1.3 Proc/minute) / (12.76 swings/minute) or 0.10 procs/swing - every swing has a 10% chance to proc.

Because we only swing every 8 seconds, we get 7.5 swings per minute.

Since, for the binomial distribution, E[X] = np, or the probability per event times the number of events, 10% * 7.5 or 0.75 procs per minute. This is close enough to your 0.78 procs per minute - I think the difference is that I'm using 12.76 swings/minute and you're using 12.5. If I calculate the expected number of procs in 3 swings using 12.5 instead, I also get 31.2%

This good with you? Mind if I continue using 12.76 swings/minute?

Oh, and I will be including the possibility of an extra 40dd if there's more than one proc.

No, stick to the 12.5 swings per minute since that is what I did. Keeps things consistent.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 11:09 PM

Updated to 12.5 swings per minute - I assume we're good here now.

1.3 base rate PPM.

Base delay is 4.7 seconds, simplified to 12.5 swings per minute. At a base rate of 1.3 PPM, that means each swing is:
(1.3 Proc/minute) / (12.5 swings/minute) or 0.104 procs/swing - every swing has a 10.4% chance to proc.

Because we only swing every 8 seconds, we get 7.5 swings per minute.

Since, for the binomial distribution, E[X] = np, or the probability per event times the number of events, 10.4% * 7.5 or 0.78 procs per minute.

Now I want to move on and extend this list:

If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, damage is 112: 40 + three ticks of 24. Those three ticks are the t=6, 12, 18 ticks
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=8 swing, damage is 88: 40 + two ticks of 24. Those two ticks are the 12, 18 ticks
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=16 swing, damage is 64: 40 + one tick of 24. That is the 18 tick
If there's no proc, damage is 0.

If there's two procs at t=0 and t=8, the total damage is 152: first proc provides 112, second proc adds 40dd.
If there's two procs at t=0 and t=16, the total damage is 152: first proc provides 112, second proc adds 40dd.
If there's two procs at t=8 and t=16, the total damage is 112: first proc provides 88, second proc adds 40dd.
If all three swings proc, the total damage is 192: first proc provides 112, second proc adds 40dd, third proc adds 40dd.

Those calculations all work for you?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 11:19 PM

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 11:21 PM

There is no reason to calculate more than one proc during the duration the fight, because we are mostly interested in the DoT. All this does is increase the DPS values I've already provided when it does happen. Your average procs per minute is the same, regardless of whether you proc 0 times in one battle and 3 in the next. Over an infinite amount of battles it still averages out to 0.78 procs per minute.

We need to include the possibility of the proc triggering more than once in a fight, because it's possible that it can happen.

You agree it's possible for a proc to trigger back to back on two swings, right?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 11:22 PM

We need to include the possibility of the proc triggering more than once in a fight, because it's possible that it can happen.

You agree it's possible for a proc to trigger back to back on two swings, right?

I agree that it's possible. It just holds no relevance because all it would do is increase the DPS average I've already provided. Procing 3 times in one minute holds no bearing over the next minute over infinite battles.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 11:24 PM

And you agree with my damage calculations in the case of two or three procs in this scenario?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 11:27 PM

And you agree with my damage calculations in the case of two or three procs in this scenario?

I disagree with you thinking there is relevance to the discussion. At the end of the day you are claiming the DPS is lower than 2.7. If you happen to proc another DD, it doesn't decrease the DPS value.

More DPS only supports my position further, so it's fine if we leave out any extra. Remember I am also leaving out white damage.

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 11:34 PM

I'll take that as confirmation you're fine with the actual damage calculation I provided.

Next step is to consider the very first swing.
Base delay is 4.7 seconds, simplified to 12.5 swings per minute. At a base rate of 1.3 PPM, that means each swing is:
(1.3 Proc/minute) / (12.5 swings/minute) or 0.104 procs/swing - every swing has a 10.4% chance to proc.

So if you take just a single swing at a mob with this weapon, there's a 10.4% chance it procs. Agreed?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 11:38 PM

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 11:40 PM

Fine, can we discuss the very first swing?

If you swing exactly once, there's a 10.4% chance it procs, right?

bcbrown

01-29-2024, 11:51 PM

If you swing exactly once, it either procs or does not proc. The chance of a proc on that one swing is 10.4%, and the chance of no proc on that one swing is 89.6%.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-29-2024, 11:59 PM

If you swing exactly once, it either procs or does not proc. The chance of a proc on that one swing is 10.4%, and the chance of no proc on that one swing is 89.6%.

If you are discussing the 18 second example, you have a 31.2% chance to proc per fight, as we always assume 3 hits.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 12:00 AM

The proc rate is calculated on a per-swing basis - you can check the implementation if you like. Note - this is Secret's version.

https://github.com/SecretsOTheP/EQMacEmu/blob/d9d554c06896a125f178ecb64db71cb2918ac0a8/zone/attack.cpp#L3721
https://github.com/SecretsOTheP/EQMacEmu/blob/d9d554c06896a125f178ecb64db71cb2918ac0a8/zone/attack.cpp#L3809-L3814

After a single swing, either it procs or it does not proc. There is a probability that it procs, and it is calculable and knowable. That number is 10.4% with this weapon.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 12:10 AM

You can just continue, will be afk for a bit. I'll rebut when I get back if necessary.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 12:11 AM

We can continue tomorrow, or whenever you're back.

We need to agree that if you take a single swing with a weapon, it will either proc or not proc, and that our calculations for this weapon result in a 10.4% chance. I can't continue until we agree on that.

aussenseiter

01-30-2024, 01:10 AM

Only hybrids get swing timer countdown during cast in EverQuest

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 01:56 AM

Only hybrids get swing timer countdown during cast in EverQuest

I guess my Shaman didn't get the memo.

We can continue tomorrow, or whenever you're back.

I'll try a different approach:

Here are Ionat's Weapon Damage values that I logged. This is Weapon Damage only, kick/bash damage is not inlcuded. Weapon Damage has 20 possible values on Mobs. They roll a D20 every time they calculate what damage they want to select. The roll can be adjusted up or down based on some mitigation variables. You can see that I roll on the lower half of the damage table 2/3 times a bit further down in the text.

Ionat Weapon Damage Table:

[44, 54, 64, 74, 84, 94, 104, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, 176, 186, 196, 206, 216, 226, 237] = (2801 / 20) = 140.05 x 0.5 (Miss Rate) = 70.5 DPS average

Ionat Weapon Damage Table Half Set Averages:

- 1908 damage by adding up the last 10 values in the set = 1908 / 10 = 190.8 average damage on the upper half of the Damage Table
- 893 damage by adding up the first 10 values in the set = 893 / 10 = 89.3 average Damage on the lower half of the Damage Table

Actual data from Logs:

- 64 successful damage rolls were on the upper half of the Damage Table
- 127 successful damage rolls were on the lower half of the Damage Table
- 96 Misses
- 191 hits
- (50% Hit rate)

Actual damage from logs = 23088 damage / 1248 seconds = 18.5 DPS (slowed by 75%) = 74 DPS unslowed
Expected Average damage from logged rolls = (89.3 x 127) + (190.8 x 64) = 23552.2 / 1248 seconds = 18.8 DPS (slowed by 75%) = 75.4 DPS unslowed
Expected Average damage from Damage Table = 70.5 DPS unslowed

Ionat Summary:

The Damage Table expects 70.5 DPS on average. I logged 74 DPS, which is close to the Damage Table and the expected average of 75.4 DPS based on how often I rolled on the lower half of the damage table vs. the upper half. This game works on averages, and you can use real data to see these averages in action.

How this relates to weapon procs:

You can do the same thing for proc damage. For example, let's assume you have 1 PPM on a weapon that procs for 400 Direct Damage, and the fight lasts 60 seconds:

[400 (tick=1), 400 (tick=2), 400 (tick=3), 400 (tick=4), 400 (tick=5), 400 (tick=6), 400 (tick=7), 400 (tick=8), 400 (tick=9), 400 (tick=10)] = (4000 damage / 10 ticks) = (400 damage / 60 seconds) x 1 PPM = 6.66 DPS on average

Let's reduce the PPM to 0.5:

[400, 400, 400, 400, 400, 400, 400, 400, 400, 400] = (4000 damage / 10 ticks) = (400 damage / 60 seconds) x 0.5 PPM = 3.33 DPS on average

Using the logic from Ionat on DoT Procs:

Let's go back to the Ionat damage table. Think of the possible DoT damage positions per tick as the individual weapon damages in Ionat's damage table, and think of the Hit rate as the PPM proc rate. Because Procs Per minute work on the minute scale, proccing a weapon is basically just selecting a random tick within a minute of the fight to get a proc, because the percentage of triggering the proc is equal per swing. If we have 0.5 PPM on a 1 minute fight using https://wiki.project1999.com/Scourge as the DoT:

[40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280] = (1760 damage / 11 ticks [10 + 1 initial DD]) = (160 damage / 60 seconds) x 0.5 PPM = 1.33 DPS on average

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 02:19 AM

Lets try again. You agree that a weapon proc can only proc on a swing of the weapon, right?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 02:31 AM

Lets try again. You agree that a weapon proc can only proc on a swing of the weapon, right?

I will not reply until you address my previous post https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672101&postcount=620 .

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 02:40 AM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 02:42 AM

You're not giving me a chance to explain myself. Please bear with me and let me explain how I go about this calculation. This explanation is how I'm responding to what you just posted.

A weapon proc can only proc on a swing of a weapon. When you swing a weapon with a proc, there is some percent chance that it results in a proc. This is where the explanation starts, and so we need to be in agreement on this.

Please directly respond to the content of this message: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672101&postcount=620

I will not continue stringing messages along for whatever reason you are doing this.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 02:53 AM

You can do the same thing for proc damage. For example, let's assume you have 1 PPM on a weapon that procs for 400 Direct Damage, and the fight lasts 60 seconds:

The precise difference between the calculation we're doing and this example calculation is that here you are using a DD proc. When instead the proc is a dot, this approach does not work. I'm trying to explain to you why this approach does not work.

Because Procs Per minute work on the minute scale, proccing a weapon is basically just selecting a random tick within a minute of the fight to get a proc, because the percentage of triggering the proc is equal per swing.

This is not the best way to understand how procs work. The way to understanding starts with the fact that a proc can only fire when you swing a weapon, and that when you make a single swing, there is a percentage chance that the proc fires.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 03:03 AM

The precise difference between the calculation we're doing and this example calculation is that here you are using a DD proc. When instead the proc is a dot, this approach does not work. I'm trying to explain to you why this approach does not work.

You didn't read the bottom, which explains DoT procs. Please read the entire post first.

You need to understand how the Ionat damage table compares to the DoT table.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 03:10 AM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 03:26 AM

There's a difference between using Ionat damage table data and DoT calculations. The way to understanding starts with the fact that a proc can only fire when you swing a weapon, and that when you make a single swing, there is a percentage chance that the proc fires.

I am trying to explain that difference, but we need to start from a point of common understanding, and go along point by point to ensure we're on the same page at each step of the calculation.

This is the problem. You don't understand that miss rate and proc rate work the same.

If you can swing 20 times per minute, you hit 10/20 times. If you turn auto attack off for 30 seconds, you hit 5/20 times. The same logic applies if you can swing 100 times per minute instead. You'll hit 50/100 times, 25/100 if you turn auto attack off for 30 seconds.

Procs per minute work the same, just using a smaller number. If you swing 20 times per minute and have 1 PPM, you get 1 proc per minute. If you turn off auto attack for 30 seconds, you get 0.5 procs per minute. The same logic applies if you can swing 100 times instead. You'll proc 1 time per minute if you swing 100 times, or proc 0.5 times if you turn off auto attack for 30 seconds.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 03:30 AM

But you do understand that a weapon proc can only fire when you swing the weapon, and that there is some percentage to fire on a single swing?

The basic mechanic starts with a percentage to fire on a single swing. The procs per minute is calculated from the basic mechanic, which is that every swing has some chance to fire a proc.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 03:33 AM

But you do understand that a weapon proc can only fire when you swing the weapon, and that there is some percentage to fire on a single swing?

Do you agree that miss rate and proc rate work the same?

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 03:36 AM

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same. They're both a property of an individual swing. Why can't you answer this question? Do you understand the words I am using?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 03:45 AM

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same. They're both a property of an individual swing. Why can't you answer this question? Do you understand the words I am using?

Then you just need to read this post to find out why you are wrong:

https://project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672101&postcount=620

The Ionat data shows how miss rate works, and how average damage is found. This is backed up by data from the game.

Proc rates work the same. You set up a damage table showing the possible damage values per tick based on the length of the encounter vs the DoT time, and the proc rate will pick one of those values at random, as they are all weighed equally, adjusted for PPM.

Procs just occur 0-2 times per minute instead of the larger number of swings you get per minute. Think of it like ionat only being able to swing 1 time. A 50% miss rate means he hits 0-1 times, and when he does hit he picks a random value from the damage table.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 03:50 AM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 03:54 AM

Why won't you let me explain my approach to you? Can you agree that an individual swing has a percentage chance to fire a proc?

This is how it's implemented.
https://github.com/SecretsOTheP/EQMa...tack.cpp#L3721
https://github.com/SecretsOTheP/EQMa...pp#L3809-L3814

I am not stopping you from doing anything.

You have agreed that proc rates and miss rates work the same. I have real in game data showing how avarage damage is calcuated with damage tables and miss rates.

Procs rate works exactly the same, you are just picking 0-2 numbers per minute in the DoT damage table instead of 50 numbers per minute in the Ionat damage table.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 03:57 AM

Ever since I asked this question, you've done nothing but stall, evade, and deflect.

Fine, can we discuss the very first swing?
If you swing exactly once, there's a 10.4% chance it procs, right?

I might be able to teach you something new if you let me. Let me walk you through this calculation I'm doing.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 03:59 AM

Ever since I asked this question, you've done nothing but stall, evade, and deflect.

I might be able to teach you something new if you let me. Let me walk you through this calculation I'm doing.

I am not evading or deflecting. I showed you how this works, and you agree proc rate and miss rate work the same:

https://project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672101&postcount=620

I have not stopped you from posting what you want to post. You are choosing to do so.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 04:03 AM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 04:04 AM

If you are willing to accept for the sake of argument that the basic game mechanic is that each swing has some percentage chance to fire a proc, and that for this weapon we can calculate that chance to be 10.4%, we can continue. Just provisionally, for the sake of argument, accept this way of thinking about procs.

You need to explain why you agree that proc rates and miss rates work the same, but somehow don't understand how the Ionat damage table works in terms of getting average damage. That is the actual damage table for Ionat on p99, with the actual miss rate, and log data that backs up the expected average.

Jimjam

01-30-2024, 07:01 AM

Lets try again. You agree that a weapon proc can only proc on a swing of the weapon, right?

Little tangent here which is irrelevant to the discussed scenario, but does answer the question above out of context: no. The off hand (so again not relevant to shaman) can proc when it’s delay timer elapses, even when dual wield fails to produce a swing. It doesn’t work this way on other servers but it does make procing weapons desirable in off hand at low dual wield skill (you end up scoring a high number of procs/swing due to number of swings being so low with offhand).

Again not relevant to the discussion, but relevant to the question, again my apologies. Just thought it was tangentially interesting to mention as an aside.

Toxigen

01-30-2024, 09:44 AM

talk about splitting ball hairs

Troxx

01-30-2024, 10:41 AM

https://media1.tenor.com/m/BwNqv3lU5MIAAAAC/defending-depo.gif

Troxx

01-30-2024, 10:49 AM

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671968&postcount=531

This post was the actual math. You clearly do not understand it. bcbrown is being exceedingly patient in trying to explain it to you. You’re either just unwilling to listen or incapable of understanding it. If it’s the latter, he’s trying to start by giving you a foundation (basics) from which he can then help you to understand the more complicated math.

At this point it sounds like you’re just unwilling to listen and learn. In all honestly I do think you are intelligent enough to actually understand it - if you would take the time to just listen and learn.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 11:00 AM

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671968&postcount=531

This post was the actual math. You clearly do not understand it.

Bcbrown has already admitted that hit rates and proc rates work same. I've shown him how the damage table works, which is how we are coming to the 10 DPS average for the mob in our example. This was supported by data from the game https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672101&postcount=620

Bcbrown is applying the incorrect math and doesn't realize it. I have been extremely patient with him, but he still refuses to understand.

You have a pattern of agreeing with other people who support your position, regardless of the facts.

Troxx

01-30-2024, 11:20 AM

Ever since I asked this question, you've done nothing but stall, evade, and deflect.

Toxigen

01-30-2024, 11:24 AM

all this math and still no warder loot

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 11:49 AM

Here is a simplified example of how P99 is doing the averages for white damage hits and procs, both DD and DoT:

Criteria
1. Hit Rate and Proc Rate Work the Same.
2. Mob Swing 10 times per minute.
3. 50% Hit Rate in our example.
4. Player Swings 5 times per minute.
5. Player has 1 Proc Per Minute (PPM) due to having 85 DEX.
6. We assume the mob always hits 5 times on average per minute at a random time.
7. We assume the weapon always procs once on average per minute at a random time.
8. Each swing has an equal chance to proc the weapon.
9. Each swing has an equal chance to hit.

Ionat Weapon Damage Table:
[44, 54, 64, 74, 84, 94, 104, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, 176, 186, 196, 206, 216, 226, 237] = (2801 damage / 20 damage values) = (140.05 damage x 0.5 Hit Rate) = 70.5 DPS average

More details on the Ionat Weapon Damage table using real log data to support the 70.5 DPS average can be found here: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672101&postcount=620 Log data can be downloaded in this video's description: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPxeOVuX0G8

Mob will randomly select 5 values from this damage table at 5 random points within a minute, depending on when they hit: 6 seconds, 12 seconds, 18 seconds, 24 seconds, 30 seconds, 36 seconds, 42 seconds, 48 seconds, 54 seconds, 60 seconds.

Player with Direct Damage Proc Weapon:

[tick 2: 400, tick 4: 400, tick 6: 400, tick 8: 400, tick 10: 400] = (2000 damage / 5 tick points) = (400 damage / 60 seconds) = 6.66 DPS average

Player will select 1 specific value from this table at these possible points within a minute, depending on the tick they proc the weapon: tick 2 = 12 seconds, tick 4 = 24 seconds, tick 6 = 36 seconds, tick 8 = 48 seconds, tick 10 = 60 seconds

I am not trying to suggest weapon procs are tied to ticks. It just so happens 5 swings per minute would trigger on a tick each time, assuming you turned auto attack on at 0 seconds. This is an analogy to better explain the DoT example below.

Player with Scourge DoT Proc Weapon First Proc:

https://wiki.project1999.com/Scourge

[tick 2: 208, tick 4: 184, tick 6: 136, tick 8: 88, tick 10: 40] = (656 damage / 4 ticks points + 1 initial DD) = (131.2 damage / 60 seconds) x 1.0 PPM = 2.18 DPS on average

Player will select 1 specific value from this table at these possible points within a minute, depending on the tick they proc the weapon: tick 2 = 12 seconds, tick 4 = 24 seconds, tick 6 = 36 seconds, tick 8 = 48 seconds, tick 10 = 60 seconds

These values are the possible damage values based on when the DoT triggers. 208 damage is if the DoT triggers at 12 seconds, 184 damage is if the DoT triggers at 24 seconds, etc.

I am not trying to suggest weapon procs are tied to ticks. But the DoT is dependent on ticks, so we need to look at which tick the DoT was triggered on.

Player with Scourge DoT Proc Weapon Subsequent Procs while DoT is active:

[tick 2: 40, tick 4: 40, tick 6: 40, tick 8: 40, tick 10: 40] = (200 damage / 5 ticks) = (40 damage / 60 seconds) x 1.0 PPM = 0.66 DPS on average

Player will select 1 specific value from this table at these possible points within a minute, depending on the tick they proc the weapon: tick 2 = 12 seconds, tick 4 = 24 seconds, tick 6 = 36 seconds, tick 8 = 48 seconds, tick 10 = 60 seconds

I am not trying to suggest weapon procs are tied to ticks. It just so happens 5 swings per minute would trigger on a tick each time, assuming you turned auto attack on at 0 seconds.

This damage gets added to the First Proc DoT damage above.

Toxigen

01-30-2024, 12:49 PM

none of this means anything when a mid 50s shaman does what they're supposed to do....

....find the most geared melee possible and duo

and guess what? regen is better for this by a country mile

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 12:53 PM

none of this means anything when a mid 50s shaman does what they're supposed to do....

....find the most geared melee possible and duo

Duoing is a great option. For people who like to solo instead, JBB is the best leveling tool if you don't have Epic. Iksar's can't use JBB, so they will just have to root/rot instead. They need to focus on getting Fungi Tunic. Unless you have enough money to buy both Epic and Torpor, do not buy Epic and become broke at level 60. Being level 60 with Torpor and no Epic is better than being level 60 with Epic and no Torpor. Using liquid options like Fungi Tunic, Fungi Staff, and JBB allow you to buy these items temporarily to speed up your leveling experience, and then you can sell them back for Torpor later.

Jimjam

01-30-2024, 01:05 PM

none of this means anything when a mid 50s shaman does what they're supposed to do....

....find the most geared melee possible and duo

and guess what? regen is better for this by a country mile

Always good fun to grab a couple of pals and level up some fresh iksar using Kunark-only routes. As much of a fan of Vanilla as I am, it just doesn’t feel quite the same doing the equivalent on other races.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 01:18 PM

Ever since I asked this question, you've done nothing but stall, evade, and deflect.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671968&postcount=531

This post was the actual math. You clearly do not understand it.

As for why Bcbrown is wrong, using math terms:

https://byjus.com/maths/binomial-distribution/#:~:text=The%20main%20difference%20between%20the,a n%20infinite%20number%20of%20events.

Binomial Distribution Vs Normal Distribution

The main difference between the binomial distribution and the normal distribution is that binomial distribution is discrete, whereas the normal distribution is continuous. It means that the binomial distribution has a finite amount of events, whereas the normal distribution has an infinite number of events.

I am using a Normal Distribution for ALL of the averages found in this post https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523 and this post https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672162&postcount=646

Bcbrown is trying to change the weapon proc rate specifically to a binomial distribution, while leaving the rest of them as normal distributions. Comparing a finite amount of events to an infinite number of events is an apples to oranges comparison.

If you flip a coin an infinite amount of times, you will end up with a mean of 0.5 (50% Heads, 50% tails).

if you flip a coin a finite amount of times, your results will vary. You could get HHHT, TTTH, HHHH, TTTT, etc.

If Bcbrown wants to show the averages using binomial distributions, he will need to do the same for all of the other normal distributions. This means a binomial distribution for mob DPS, a binomial distribution for spells that includes resists/partial resists/interrupts/root breaks/fizzle rates, a binomial distribution for Pet DPS, a binomial distribution for Player white damage DPS, etc.

sajbert

01-30-2024, 02:01 PM

If you go Iksar you'll always be able to be the best you can be. If you go Ogre today you'll never have Guise (although AoN is cooler than dark elf) and never have 2 sky rings. You also won't have Trollbutt.

Toxigen

01-30-2024, 03:46 PM

Always good fun to grab a couple of pals and level up some fresh iksar using Kunark-only routes. As much of a fan of Vanilla as I am, it just doesn’t feel quite the same doing the equivalent on other races.

i still really want to do an all lizard self fund (not found, just no twinking) necro / shaman / monk

Naethyn

01-30-2024, 03:48 PM

I started the server iksar shm + necro buds and I can confirm its a great way to go. So many useful quests. Tons of ways to make cash as a new player. All your spells are in one city.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 03:57 PM

i still really want to do an all lizard self fund (not found, just no twinking) necro / shaman / monk

Agreed, that does sound fun!

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 04:35 PM

I'd like to start by apologizing for provoking such a massive derailment. I wouldn't have done so, except this thread was already full derailed and the question posed by the OP had been answered with no disagreement.

Little tangent here which is irrelevant to the discussed scenario, but does answer the question above out of context: no. The off hand (so again not relevant to shaman) can proc when it’s delay timer elapses, even when dual wield fails to produce a swing. It doesn’t work this way on other servers but it does make procing weapons desirable in off hand at low dual wield skill (you end up scoring a high number of procs/swing due to number of swings being so low with offhand).

Again not relevant to the discussion, but relevant to the question, again my apologies. Just thought it was tangentially interesting to mention as an aside.

No need to apologize, I enjoy a good pedantic correction, and this absolutely qualifies. Thanks!

As for why Bcbrown is wrong, using math terms:

https://byjus.com/maths/binomial-distribution/#:~:text=The%20main%20difference%20between%20the,a n%20infinite%20number%20of%20events.

Binomial Distribution Vs Normal Distribution

The main difference between the binomial distribution and the normal distribution is that binomial distribution is discrete, whereas the normal distribution is continuous. It means that the binomial distribution has a finite amount of events, whereas the normal distribution has an infinite number of events.

If you flip a coin an infinite amount of times, you will end up with a mean of 0.5 (50% Heads, 50% tails).

if you flip a coin a finite amount of times, your results will vary. You could get HHHT, TTTH, HHHH, TTTT, etc.

Our boy is furiously googling "normal binomial" and reading whatever summary Google provides, while I'm over here reviewing my copy of Wasserman's All Of Statistics (https://www.amazon.com/DSM-Should-Read-This/dp/0387402721/).

https://i.imgur.com/FDed0em.png

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 04:41 PM

Our boy is furiously googling "normal binomial" and reading whatever summary Google provides, while I'm over here reviewing my copy of Wasserman's All Of Statistics (https://www.amazon.com/DSM-Should-Read-This/dp/0387402721/).

I said a normal distribution, not a "Normal Binomial" lol. Now that Bcbrown has been shown to be wrong, he's going to troll.

If you want to use binomial distributions, your equation needs to look like this:

Binomial Distribution A + Binomial Distribution B = C

If you want to use normal distributions, your equation needs to look like this:

Normal Distribution A + Normal Distribution B = C

Doing this is incorrect:

Normal Distribution A + Binomial Distribution A = C

This is why I keep saying Bcbrown is using averages wrong. He is basically trying to lower the DPS number by using the incorrect type of average.

For people looking to understand the Normal Distribution of DPS on procs and white damage: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672162&postcount=646

For people looking to understand why JBB is better than root/rotting for leveling from 45-60 on a Shaman without Epic: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523

For people looking to understand why FSI is the MinMax option on Shamans: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671204&postcount=311

Duik

01-30-2024, 04:53 PM

And we have a finite number of events. While i do not understand fully the math i can grasp there is a difference because our fights take a finite number of random or percentage inputs.

I also understand all of us will not get this subtle difference.

I say just play and give your mana to a kobold in the form of dot damage followed by a dd from a smoldering brand (eventually hehe) then give it a good rogering (root it). Doggy is being a good boy. Always end fights with ZERO MANA and 12% health. That way you know you are fighting lvl appropriate content. Extra points for medding on a pathing mobs route. That is min/max.
Minimum XP from maximum expenditure. Go forth and modulus divide!

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 04:56 PM

And we have a finite number of events.

If you want to use Binomial Distributions, you need to use it for all of the DPS numbers. JBB, Pet, Blight Hammer Proc, Player White Damage, etc.

Bcbrown is trying to mix a Binomial Distribution into Normal Distributions, which is incorrect. He is using the Normal Distribution (infinite) JBB DPS, while trying to use the Binomial Distribution (finite) weapon proc DPS.

bcbrown

01-30-2024, 05:01 PM

And we have a finite number of events. While i do not understand fully the math i can grasp there is a difference because our fights take a finite number of random or percentage inputs.

I also understand all of us will not get this subtle difference.

Oh this subtle nuance makes absolutely no real-world difference. But since DSM is utterly incapable of admitting he is ever wrong, he's in an all-out fight over whether his Scourge proc does 2.2DPS or 0.75DPS while spamming JBB. Utterly irrelevant.

But to close the loop on the simplified example we started yesterday:

If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, the probability is 10.4 * 89.6 * 89.6, or 8.35%, and does 112 damage
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=8 swing, the probability is 89.6 * 10.4 * 89.6, or 8.35%, and does 88 damage
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=16 swing, the probability is 89.6 * 89.6 * 10.4, or 8.35%, and does 64 damage
If there's no proc, damage is 0, the probability is 89.6 * 89.6 * 89.6, 71.9%, and does zero damage
If there's two procs at t=0 and t=8, the probability is 10.4 * 10.4 * 89.6, or 0.97%, and does 152 damage
If there's two procs at t=0 and t=16, the probability is 10.4 * 89.6 * 10.4, or 0.97%, and does 152 damage
If there's two procs at t=8 and t=16, the probability is 89.6 * 10.4 * 10.4, or 0.97%, and does 112 damage
If there's a proc on all three swings, the probability is 10.4 * 10.4 * 10.4, or 0.11%, and does 192 damage

The sum of probabilities is 100% after compensating for rounding: 8.35 + 8.35 + 8.35 + 71.9 + 0.97 + 0.97 + 0.97 + 0.11 = 99.97

The expected value is equal to the sum of all the possible outcomes, each weighted by the probability of that outcome occurring.
112 * .0835 + 88 * .0835 + 64 * .0835 + 0 * .719 + 152 * .0097 + 152 * .0097 + 112 * .0097 + 192 * .0011 = 26.29

So the expected damage is 26.29 over an 18 second fight, or 1.46 DPS.

This calculation will provide a different DPS value for a 132 second fight, but the principle behind the calculation is the same. I did this calculation here (https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671968&postcount=531), and came up with 0.75DPS

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 05:06 PM

Oh this subtle nuance makes absolutely no real-world difference. But since DSM is utterly incapable of admitting he is ever wrong, he's in an all-out fight over whether his Scourge proc does 2.2DPS or 0.75DPS while spamming JBB. Utterly irrelevant.
...
or 1.46 DPS.
...
and came up with 0.75DPS.

I find this amusing.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671956&postcount=525

You're still using 2.2DPS for the scourge proc when it should be 0.75DPS.

Bcbrown was the one who started this debate by quibbling over the Scourge proc DPS. I am not sure why he is blaming me for his own "utterly irrelevant" idea. He's the one in an all-out fight. I am just showing you why you are wrong.

Bcbrown is complaining about subtlety, while simultaneously trying to Shave 1 DPS off of the JBB Shaman in this post in a clear attempt to "win" or "not be wrong": https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523 .

This is clearly projection. I factually admitted to being wrong in this very thread when you pointed out I missed the meditation mana in my older calculations. It's trivial to disprove this kind of strawman nonsense. Making a mistake in a math calculation does not mean I have to automatically concede my entire argument. Troxx had incorrect math calculations too, but I don't see you applying the same accusations to him.

Bcbrown forgets that I am not including white damage from the Shaman hitting the mob while trying to proc, which means you would probably still end up with roughly 2 DPS at minimum using both of his DPS numbers. Regardless of whether his Binomial Distribution math is correct or not, he isn't getting his desired outcome of decreasing the JBB Shaman's DPS numbers enough to give the DoT Shaman the edge. The JBB Shaman's numbers are actually higher since I used a lower PPM value and didn't include white damage, but I don't need to change the existing numbers. The JBB Shaman is already winning with the lower 2.2 DPS value.

He is also mixing Normal Distributions and Binomial Distributions, which I have called him out on multiple times. My calculations are all using Normal Distributions.

The data fully supports my claim that JBB is the best leveling tool from 45-60 without Epic.

For people looking to understand the Normal Distribution of DPS on procs and white damage: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672162&postcount=646

For people looking to understand why JBB is better than root/rotting for leveling from 45-60 on a Shaman without Epic: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523

For people looking to understand why FSI is the MinMax option on Shamans: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671204&postcount=311

Duik

01-30-2024, 05:06 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 05:29 PM

You CHOOSE when to click.

Wise words!

Troxx

01-30-2024, 09:14 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 09:49 PM

I am curious - for these rats in the maze in PoM you are quoting - can you give us some parses that show they only 10 dps once slowed? I am a bit beyond suspicious this number is not accurate. I ain't gonna pay for a PoM succor just to test this out but this is NOT consistent with 4.5k hp mobs vs 7k hp mobs i am used to on any of my classes.

Here is a random fight I found from my SK. I think I was using it for another test, which is why I was face tanking:

[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] Auto attack on.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 98 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink kicks YOU for 36 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 93 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:29 2023] You can't hit them from here.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:30 2023] Your target is too far away, get closer!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:30 2023] Your target is too far away, get closer!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:31 2023] Your target is too far away, get closer!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:33 2023] You can't hit them from here.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:33 2023] Your target is too far away, get closer!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:34 2023] Your target is too far away, get closer!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:35 2023] Your target is too far away, get closer!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] Your target is too far away, get closer!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 99 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] a Ratfink glares at you threateningly -- it appears to be quite formidable.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but YOU parry!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 100 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] A Ratfink's skin erupts in flame.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:40 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:40 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:40 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 33 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:41 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 100 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:41 2023] A Ratfink's skin erupts in flame.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:42 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 200 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:42 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:44 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 215 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:44 2023] A Ratfink tries to bash YOU, but YOU riposte!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:44 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 254 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:44 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:44 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:46 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:46 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 8 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:47 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:47 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:47 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:47 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 75 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:47 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:48 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:48 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:48 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:48 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:48 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but YOU parry!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:49 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:50 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:50 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:50 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:50 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:51 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:52 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:52 2023] A Ratfink tries to bash YOU, but YOU riposte!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:52 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:52 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:53 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:53 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:53 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 57 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:53 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:54 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:54 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:54 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:54 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 55 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:55 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:56 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 161 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:56 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:56 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:56 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:57 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:57 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:58 2023] You try to bash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:58 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 164 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:58 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 38 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:00 2023] A Ratfink tries to kick YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:01 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:01 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:01 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 100 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:01 2023] A Ratfink's skin erupts in flame.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:01 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 156 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:01 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 126 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:02 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:03 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:03 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:04 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:04 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 94 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:04 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 126 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:05 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:05 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 2 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:05 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:06 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 104 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 32 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:08 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:09 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:09 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:10 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:10 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:10 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:11 2023] You try to bash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:11 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:11 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:11 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:11 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:12 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:12 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:13 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 100 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:13 2023] A Ratfink's skin erupts in flame.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:13 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 61 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:13 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:13 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but YOU parry!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:14 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 31 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:16 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:16 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:17 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:17 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 8 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:17 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:18 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:18 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:18 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:18 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but a Ratfink ripostes!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:18 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:19 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:19 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:19 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:20 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:21 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:21 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:21 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:21 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 93 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:21 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:22 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:23 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:23 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:23 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 35 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:23 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 3 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:23 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:24 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:24 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:24 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 126 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:24 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:24 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:25 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:25 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:26 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:27 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but a Ratfink parries!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:27 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:27 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 121 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:27 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:28 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:29 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:29 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:29 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:29 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:30 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 5 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:30 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 109 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:30 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:30 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:30 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:30 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:31 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink kicks YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 33 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:33 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 126 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:33 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 160 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:34 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:34 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:35 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 47 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] You try to bash a Ratfink, but a Ratfink dodges!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:37 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:38 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:38 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:38 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:38 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 213 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:39 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:39 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:39 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:39 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:40 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:40 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:41 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 1 point of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:41 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:41 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 43 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:42 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:44 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 202 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:44 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 142 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:44 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:45 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:45 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:46 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:47 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 4 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:47 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 167 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:48 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:49 2023] A Ratfink tries to bash YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:49 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but YOU dodge!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:49 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:49 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:49 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:49 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:50 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:50 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 130 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:50 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:51 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:51 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:51 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:51 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:52 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:52 2023] You try to bash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 100 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] A Ratfink's skin erupts in flame.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 214 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:54 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:55 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:55 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 123 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 199 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] A Ratfink kicks YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 66 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:58 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:58 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 11 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:58 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 197 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:02:59 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:00 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:00 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:00 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:01 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:01 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 100 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:01 2023] A Ratfink's skin erupts in flame.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:01 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:02 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:02 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:02 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:02 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:03 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:04 2023] A Ratfink tries to bash YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:04 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 103 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:04 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:04 2023] You try to bash a Ratfink, but a Ratfink dodges!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:04 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:04 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:05 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:06 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:07 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:07 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 80 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:07 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 52 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:07 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:08 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:09 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:09 2023] A Ratfink was tormented.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:09 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 12 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:09 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:10 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:10 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 3 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:10 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 126 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:10 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:11 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:12 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:12 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:12 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but YOU parry!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:12 2023] A Ratfink tries to bash YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:13 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:13 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 85 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:13 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:14 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but misses!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:16 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 111 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:16 2023] A Ratfink tries to hit YOU, but YOU parry!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:16 2023] Your feet slow down.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:16 2023] Your feet feel quick.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:18 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 8 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:18 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:18 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:19 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 189 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:19 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 169 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:19 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:20 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:21 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:22 2023] You can't see your target from here.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:24 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:24 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 55 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:27 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 85 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:27 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 108 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:29 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 3 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:29 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:29 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:29 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:30 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 66 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:30 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 153 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:30 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:31 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:32 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:32 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:33 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:33 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 157 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:33 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:34 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 8 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:35 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:35 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:35 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:36 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:36 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 52 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:37 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:38 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:39 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:39 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:39 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:40 2023] You try to bash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:40 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:41 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:41 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:41 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 43 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:41 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:42 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:42 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:43 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:43 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:44 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:44 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 52 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:44 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:46 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 2 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:46 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:47 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:47 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:48 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:48 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:48 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:49 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:50 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:50 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 43 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:50 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:51 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:51 2023] You try to bash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:52 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:53 2023] a Ratfink was hit by non-melee for 100 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:53 2023] A Ratfink's skin erupts in flame.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:53 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 48 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:53 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:54 2023] Your attempt to disarm failed.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:54 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:55 2023] You taunt a Ratfink to ignore others and attack you!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:55 2023] a Ratfink says 'I'll teach you to interfere with me Bazgek.'
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:55 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:56 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 154 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:56 2023] You try to slash a Ratfink, but miss!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:56 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:56 2023] You bash a Ratfink for 8 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:57 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:58 2023] You need to equip a shield in order to BASH
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:59 2023] You slash a Ratfink for 151 points of damage.
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:59 2023] You have slain a Ratfink!
[Sun Jul 30 14:03:59 2023] You gain experience!!

Hits taken out of the log:
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 93",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 99",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:40 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 33",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:48 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:54 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 55",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 38",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 104",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:21 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 93",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 121",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 33",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:51 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 66",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:03:09 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",

Ratfink damage = 1261 over 102 seconds = 12.3 DPS unslowed.

This is only one fight obviously, but lets assume they do 20 DPS to a Shaman unslowed.

Togor's Insects is slowing by at least 65% by level 58. That means they would be doing like 7 DPS after a slow if their average is 20 DPS.

Honestly I thought the estimated 10 DPS was generally too high, I just wanted to strongman the argument. So this just further supports JBB.

Remember that 1261 damage is like 40% of a Tank's life pool if they have 3000 HP. Mob DPS is generally much lower, because player HP is much lower. A Ratfink has 7000 HP as a level 48 trash mob.

Troxx

01-30-2024, 09:54 PM

You'd be surprised how low mob DPS is. This is because a level 60 tank has like 3k HP without raid gear. The Ratfinks have 7000 HP by comparison as a level 48 trash mob.

I parse everything. You'd be surprised just how little surprises me.

Most recently on my (now 57) ranger I can confirm that as a level 57 ranger with the full complement of ranger defensive abilities that a ravishing drolvarg in DL or a dark blue mob (drolv guardians included) will average about 10dps with a tagars 50% slow.

Under the same circumstances a:

https://wiki.project1999.com/Kromrif_Guardsman

In EW with 6.5k hp will average about 18dps after slow.

Neither of these are rats in PoM maze. And my ranger does not have a 70% slow (only 50%) but I also know my ranger has a much higher dodge skill, defensive skill, has a parry skill (shaman has NONE) and a riposte skill (shaman has NONE).

I seriously am questioning whether we are assuming a priest class without many defensive lines and skill caps will be actually taking 10dps on a 70% slowed 7khp velious mob. Beyond that, I question whether said shaman would actually be taking comparable damage to a warrior class pet with these skills (where the shaman has none).

I suspect the shaman will take more dps than the pet. Admittedly I need to parse this. I will try to do so in the next few days.

More variables.

I have played the JBB game.
I noticed it was simply worse.
It is THE REASON I sold it.

I am not convinced our over-simplified napkin math is correct to begin with. Bcbrown being right and you being wrong about the stupid value of a *who gives a shit* quality proc having 2dps or 0.75dps notwithstanding ...

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 10:00 PM

I am not convinced our over-simplified napkin math is correct to begin with. Bcbrown being right and you being wrong about the stupid value of a *who gives a shit* quality proc having 2dps or 0.75dps notwithstanding ...

You have yet to prove my math wrong. Simply claiming it is wrong isn't an argument.

I also proved Bcbrown wrong:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672173&postcount=650
https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672207&postcount=660

Continuing to act like this isn't helping your argument.

I have played the JBB game.
I noticed it was simply worse.
It is THE REASON I sold it.

You could have been wrong in your assessment at the time too! This is just an opinion right now.

Since you are including personal experience into your argument, I did actually solo PoM Rat Maze from 58-60 on my Shaman using JBB. The Rats really didn't do much damage from what I remember. I chewed through them. It was great XP too. Best I could find at the time. Better than Neriak Arena since I didn't have Epic.

I seriously am questioning whether we are assuming a priest class without many defensive lines and skill caps will be actually taking 10dps on a 70% slowed 7khp velious mob. Beyond that, I question whether said shaman would actually be taking comparable damage to a warrior class pet with these skills (where the shaman has none).

My Shaman takes 18.5 DPS from Ionat after he is slowed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPxeOVuX0G8 It's really not that surprising. Ionat hits 2x as hard as Ratfinks, is higher level, and designed for a group of players. It would honestly be more surprising if a random level 48 trash mob did even 60% of Ionat's damage after being slowed.

Troxx

01-30-2024, 10:49 PM

My Shaman takes 18.5 DPS from Ionat after he is slowed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPxeOVuX0G8 It's really not that surprising. Ionat hits 2x as hard as Ratfinks, is higher level, and designed for a group of players. It would honestly be more surprising if a random level 48 trash mob did even 60% of Ionat's damage after being slowed.

Your shaman:

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Shamwowi

My shaman:

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Jolav

Mine is more typical of a group geared 58 shaman for the type of scenario we are discussing (58 shaman farming xp). I have not specifically counted counted up your gear pieces but it would seem that more than half your gear is TOV raid target or above.

Do you suspect this is typical for a leveling shaman in their 50s? Would Ionate do 18dps to my shaman (for fucks sake I would hope not)

If a 7k hp velious mob does 10dps on average to you at 60 with that gear - one could reasonably deduce it would do a lot more damage to a lesser geared shaman at 60 and even more to the same level of gear on a 56 or 58 shaman.

More variables not accounted for.

You are not at all geared like a typical shaman in their 50s grinding xp.

Troxx

01-30-2024, 10:52 PM

As an example you (as a damn shaman) have 100 more ac than my warrior:

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Bedavir

How relevant are your current experiences to a leveling shaman (not a raid twink) levels 54-60?

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 10:52 PM

You are not at all geared like a typical shaman in their 50s grinding xp.

Remember that you are the one who added a Fungi Tunic to their "napkin math". My examples did not initially include it. But now you are worried about gear all of a sudden.

If a 7k hp velious mob does 10dps on average to you at 60 with that gear - one could reasonably deduce it would do a lot more damage to a lesser geared shaman at 60 and even more to the same level of gear on a 56 or 58 shaman.

I didn't say a trash mob does 10 DPS on average to my Shaman. I am not sure where you read that. I didn't use my Shaman at all for the 10 DPS average number I used initially.

I didn't say my gear isn't affecting the DPS of Ionat. But it is up to you to determine how much of a factor it is if you are trying to claim the DPS will be much higher. Right now this is just your opinion that it is such a big difference.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-30-2024, 11:42 PM

Here are 3 PoM Rat Maze fight logs from my Shadowknight:

"[Sun Jul 30 14:06:44 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 122",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:06:46 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 85",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:06:46 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:06:51 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:06:53 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:06:53 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:03 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 52",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:05 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:07 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:09 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 63",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:30 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 68",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:32 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 101",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:36 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:38 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 74",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:38 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 90",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:43 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 63",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:45 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:45 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 68",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:47 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:49 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:53 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:53 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 36",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:56 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:57 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:58 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 63",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:02 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:04 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:06 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 31",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:08 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 42",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:11 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:13 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:17 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 95",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:17 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 74",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:19 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:21 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:23 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 101",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:25 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 95",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:27 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 58",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:32 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:36 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 36",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:38 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 74",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:40 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 128",

"[Sun Jul 30 14:06:44 2023] Ratman Rager bashes YOU for 34",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:07:15 2023] Ratman Rager bashes YOU for 29",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:02 2023] Ratman Rager bashes YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:25 2023] Ratman Rager bashes YOU for 31",

"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:10 2023] Ratman Rager kicks YOU for 26",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:08:41 2023] Ratman Rager kicks YOU for 31",

2318 over 117 seconds = 19.8 DPS unslowed.

"[Tue Aug 01 15:16:57 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 85",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:00 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 63",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:08 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 95",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:10 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 42",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:14 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 47",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:16 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:18 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 111",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:20 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 36",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:20 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 26",
"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:24 2023] Ratman Rager hits YOU for 47",

"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:11 2023] Ratman Rager kicks YOU for 26",

"[Tue Aug 01 15:17:03 2023] Ratman Rager bashes YOU for 28",

632 over 27 seconds = 23.4 DPS unslowed.

"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 93",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 99",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:38 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:40 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 33",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:48 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:54 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 55",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:59 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 38",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 104",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:21 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 93",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:27 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 121",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 33",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:36 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:43 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:51 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:53 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 82",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 66",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:57 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:03:09 2023] A Ratfink hits YOU for 28",

"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:27 2023] A Ratfink kicks YOU for 36",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:32 2023] A Ratfink kicks YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:56 2023] A Ratfink kicks YOU for 28",

"[Sun Jul 30 14:01:36 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 28",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:07 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 32",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:15 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 31",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:23 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 35",
"[Sun Jul 30 14:02:39 2023] A Ratfink bashes YOU for 28",

1507 over 102 seconds = 14.77 DPS unslowed.

Here are 189850 melee attempts from my logs against Bazgek:

91883 misses
74550 hits
6414 dodges
7268 ripostes
9735 parries

189850 melee attempts, including kick/bash made against bazgek
23417 dodges + ripostes + parries

23417 / 189850 = 12.33 percent chance

From the data above:

19.33 DPS over 3 fights from a Ratman Rage or Ratfink.

12.33% chance to dodge, riposte, or parry. Even though Shamans have dodge, I'll just apply the full 12.33%

So we can say ~22 DPS on a Shaman when excluding these. We can bump it to 25 DPS assuming I have less AC than my SK.

25 DPS x 0.33 (67% slow from Togor's) = 8.25 DPS.

aussenseiter

01-30-2024, 11:48 PM

I no longer care. Its become a clown show. Shoot mobs wiff ya magic. Or not.
Buuut, weapon procs are random in this instance.
JBB clicks are not. You CHOOSE when to click. The only random bit is resists or interupts. But you still choose when to instigate a click.
That is i believe where the difference is.

What's the difference between having a light on and a hardon?
You can sleep with a light on. Budum tish.

This thread has gone signficantly off the rails into why-to-do-math territory.

https://64.media.tumblr.com/1417bb208c4897adbb56b9f830b989fb/e2e204d22bc67b02-d3/s540x810/00943c1c45f2e4e2668d838b9089778abc0e47e0.gif

https://64.media.tumblr.com/3167ba3482e690eec21257005c61e6d4/e2e204d22bc67b02-d7/s540x810/e4f893c8e6963eaa2d84b56ed8d80b237fe11caa.gif

https://64.media.tumblr.com/f95392dc68054f85c9602aec915298cb/e2e204d22bc67b02-7e/s540x810/e57c3419d3d908c5b0e89720d1d8128e8fb3c2cb.gif

Troxx

01-30-2024, 11:57 PM

Apples and carrots man.

Shadowknights and shamans are not the same class. Different ac returns. Wildly different defensive abilities and skills. Slowed vs unslowed. Your sk is 60 and is not geared to a typical level of a leveling anything (your magelo is in your signature).

About 10 levels of degrees/variables of difference not accounted for …

You’re taking parsed from a plate TANK (and geared well) and trying to extrapolate that to a leveling priest class defensively?

No conclusions are possible.

Do you understand the scientific method? Controlling for as many variables as possible minus what you are looking to measure/compare?

I am really skeptical at this point man …

Troxx

01-31-2024, 12:00 AM

This thread has gone signficantly off the rails into why-to-do-math territory.

https://64.media.tumblr.com/1417bb208c4897adbb56b9f830b989fb/e2e204d22bc67b02-d3/s540x810/00943c1c45f2e4e2668d838b9089778abc0e47e0.gif

https://64.media.tumblr.com/3167ba3482e690eec21257005c61e6d4/e2e204d22bc67b02-d7/s540x810/e4f893c8e6963eaa2d84b56ed8d80b237fe11caa.gif

https://64.media.tumblr.com/f95392dc68054f85c9602aec915298cb/e2e204d22bc67b02-7e/s540x810/e57c3419d3d908c5b0e89720d1d8128e8fb3c2cb.gif

Truth.

So fucking stupid.

TLDR for the “new guys”

-Racial regen is the tits
-FSI is overrated
-JBB is a poweleveling tool to the low/mod 50s. It is less relevant after that and is inevitably nothing more than a cute toy to play with

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 12:18 AM

Do you understand the scientific method? Controlling for as many variables as possible minus what you are looking to measure/compare?

I am really skeptical at this point man …

You haven't provided any evidence to support your position lol. What scientific method uses zero evidence?

Clearly I understand it better than you do, as I am providing real data to support my claims.

You need to provide more than trolling, insults, and nonsense if you want to claim you are doing anything remotely scientific.

Truth.

So fucking stupid.

TLDR for the “new guys”

-Racial regen is the tits
-FSI is overrated
-JBB is a poweleveling tool to the low/mod 50s. It is less relevant after that and is inevitably nothing more than a cute toy to play with

Please ignore Troxx's opinions on JBB or Shaman Racials. He has no evidence to back up his opinions on JBB or Shaman Racials. He has been proven wrong and refuses to concede.

For people looking to understand the Normal Distribution of DPS on procs and white damage: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672162&postcount=646

For people looking to understand why JBB is better than root/rotting for leveling from 45-60 on a Shaman without Epic: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523

For people looking to understand why FSI is the MinMax option on Shamans: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671204&postcount=311

7thGate

01-31-2024, 02:51 AM

DSM, you're not correct about the DOT calculation.

For DD procs, you can just do a straight average of PPM * damage per proc to get expected damage per minute, because the timing doesn't change it at all. This is because with each success valued the same regardless of sequencing, the mean of a binomial distribution is just the probability of success * number of swings, and the PPM system sets the probability of success such that this always comes out to the number of PPM.

This is not the case with a DOT proc because every proc is not equally valuable, you have to calculate the contribution each branch makes to the average individually and sum them to get the correct average. BCBrown is correct in his analysis. I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.

If you are discussing the 18 second example, you have a 31.2% chance to proc per fight, as we always assume 3 hits.

You don't have a 31.2% chance to proc with three swings at 10.4% each, you have a 29.07% chance. You get 0.312 procs of expected value, but 0.0213 of them are bound up in the cases where you proc two or three times out of the three swings, so your chances of proccing at least once are only 29.07%.

You gave it a good shot, bcbrown.

Duik

01-31-2024, 08:15 AM

Why are we using SK damage parses for our data?
Here is a "random" parse of a totally unrelated plate class with upper range gear in lots of slots.
Does not compute.
Talkin' apples and oranges or what?

Now, I dunno the actual difference but imma suggest a 50 - 58 shm in good ec gear wiff a sprinkle of no drop goodies the higher you get would be splattered by a mob a 60 SK farms for uno cards. No science or parses to prove it. But ya know. Extra Pol Ation is three words that exist and mean something.
NVM. Tell us more of your 60 SK as proof of xping a mid 50's shaman with a Jarlsberg Bone Bracer (of any race).

Go.

Toxigen

01-31-2024, 09:59 AM

imagine typing that much when iksar is best

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 10:44 AM

Why are we using SK damage parses for our data?

Troxx has no parses at all, so his claims are 100% unfounded currently. Ask him for data lol.

I have actual parses from PoM Rat Maze. I removed dodge/parry/riposte from the equation and added a little more than 10% damage to boot. That changed 20 DPS parsed to 25 DPS predicted, which is a 25% increase in damage. That's a pretty big boost in damage.

Troxx is going to need to provide evidence that a level 58 Shaman is going to take at least 50% more damage than my 59 SK at the time in PoM Rat Maze to shift the 10 DPS number I provided here https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523 to a higher number.

DSM, you're not correct about the DOT calculation.

I am using a normal distribution for the DoT proc, not a binomial distribution. All of my averages are normal distributions.

If you want to claim I am doing the normal distribution wrong, please show us your math for a normal distribution of procced DoT damage.

My math is here, and it already takes into account the different points at which the DoT could trigger in a fight:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672162&postcount=646

This is not the case with a DOT proc because every proc is not equally valuable, you have to calculate the contribution each branch makes to the average individually and sum them to get the correct average.

I already did that in my Normal Distribution:

[208, 184, 136, 88, 40] = (656 damage / 4 ticks points + 1 initial DD) = (131.2 damage / 60 seconds) x 1.0 PPM = 2.18 DPS on average

These are the possible DoT damage values that could occur in a minute long fight, assuming you can swing 5 times per minute and have 1 PPM. Remember each swing has an equal chance to proc. If you proc again, just add 40 damage per proc.

208 damage = proccing at 12 seconds (40 + 7 ticks of 24 damage), 184 = proccing at 24 seconds (40 + 5 ticks of 24 damage), etc.

Troxx

01-31-2024, 11:07 AM

imagine typing that much when iksar is best

I still like scratching my ass

Toxigen

01-31-2024, 11:59 AM

I still like scratching my ass

dont neglect the balls

Tann

01-31-2024, 12:20 PM

This thread has gone signficantly off the rails into why-to-do-math territory.

Every thread with topics such as "best race for ____ class" and "FSI vs. Regen" will always devolve into MathQuest and "I'm right you're wrong"Quest. A common denominator within all the threads exists, a poster perhaps, that might be the source of this corruption.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 12:34 PM

Every thread with topics such as "best race for ____ class" and "FSI vs. Regen" will always devolve into MathQuest and "I'm right you're wrong"Quest. A common denominator within all the threads exists, a poster perhaps, that might be the source of this corruption.

The "I'm right you're wrong" Questers are the problem indeed. That is Trolls like Troxx who cannot back up their claims with evidence, and thus resort to trolling to try and bully people into submission. Trolls also band together, as they use Argumentum Ad Populum fallacy as a weapon. "5 people disagree, therefore you are wrong".

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 12:57 PM

I think I see some of the confusion people have with the DoT damage averages on a Normal Distribution.

The main issue with DoTs is they do have a cap, because proccing them again doesn't give you double DoT damage. However, you can only get 2 procs per minute at maximum, which means this really isn't a problem in practice. Basically if you could get 132 PPM (1 proc per second), you would only do 544 DoT Damage + 132 x 40 Direct Damage = 5,824 Damage. A 100 Damage DD would do 13200 Damage by comparison.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523 - In this example the JBB Shaman with Blight, Hammer of the Scourge is enganged in a fight that lasts 132 seconds. The Proc is a spell called Scourge, which lasts 126 seconds, and does 40 DD + 24 Damage a tick.

The Shaman has 1.3 PPM normally because they have 135 DEX. Since they are spamming JBB, they get 7.5/12.77 swings. This means your PPM is reduced to 0.76 PPM after accounting for the number of missed swings.

Here are the possible places you can proc and tick, since we are casting JBB. I am assuming the cast starts halfway through the first two ticks, which is why we start at 3 seconds. The numbers in paranthesis are ticks, and the bracketed number is the 0.5 swings triggering:

(0), 3, (6), 11, (12), (18), 19, (24), 27, (30), 35, (36), (42), 43, (48), (54), 51, [59], (60)

Using the numbers above, we could get a full 10 ticks from the DoT if you land it at the start. Our damage table will have 8 values for the 8 places where you could proc.

I will be using (t=x) to describe the seconds at which the proc occured. t=3 is 3 seconds into the fight:

[280 (t=3), 256 (t=11), 208 (t=19), 184 (t=27), 160 (t=35), 112 (t=43), 64 (t=51), 40 (t=59)] = (1304 damage / 8 values) = (163 average damage / 60 seconds) = 2.72 DPS x 0.76 PPM = 2.06 DPS

The 0.76 PPM is taking into account the chance of simply not procing at all. It is the same with DD Procs. If you have 0.5 PPM and your DD proc does 400 damage, you would end up doing (400 damage / 60 seconds) = 0.66 DPS x 0.5 PPM = 0.33 DPS.

Because the fight lasts 2 minutes, you have a total of 1.56 procs. This means you are guaranteed 1 DoT proc somehwere within the fight on average. The DoT lasts two minutes, so it can last the full duration of the fight. This means you have 4 possibilities on average: [Max DoT Damage, Zero Dot Damage, 1/4 DoT Damage, 3/4 DoT Damage] = [544, 0, 160, 400] = (1104 / 4) = 276 / 132 = 2.09 DPS, which is basically number we got from the 1 minute fight.

Since we do have the 0.56 procs still floating around, you would get an extra 40 DD half of the fights. So an extra 40 damage x 0.5 PPM = 20 damage / 132 seconds = 0.15 DPS.

So the total DPS would be 2.2 DPS per 2 minute fight, which is what I was using originally. Remember this still does not include white damage.

Ripqozko

01-31-2024, 01:41 PM

DSM is the new kittens, enjoy apping

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 01:56 PM

DSM is the new kittens, enjoy apping

This is one of the few random phrases Ripqozko posts in every thread he participates in for no discernable reason.

"<Poster> is the new <Guild>"

Nobody knows why he does this, and I would be curious to know how many of this specific random message is in his history. I would guess 50 posts of it at least.

Perhaps he has a bot posting for him.

Troxx

01-31-2024, 02:26 PM

This is one of the few random phrases Ripqozko posts in every thread he participates in for no discernable reason.

"<Poster> is the new <Guild>"

Nobody knows why he does this, and I would be curious to know how many of this specific random message is in his history. I would guess 50 posts of it at least.

Perhaps he has a bot posting for him.

I just scrolled through his last 250 posts (6 months worth) and did not observe him say anything remotely similar to anyone but you. It constitutes a small percentage of what he has said and most threads he never says it at all. In fact, the only threads he has said it in have been the DSM threads.

Why would you lie about something so easy to fact check?

Toxigen

01-31-2024, 02:32 PM

sorry you dont got iksar fashion hope this helps

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 02:34 PM

I just scrolled through his last 250 posts (6 months worth) and did not observe him say anything remotely similar to anyone but you. It constitutes a small percentage of what he has said and most threads he never says it at all. In fact, the only threads he has said it in have been the DSM threads.

Why would you lie about something so easy to fact check?

Claiming I am lying is certainly a stretch. If you read what I posted, I made no claims about the frequency of which posters or guilds he chooses to put into his messages. It is honestly irrelevant, as spamming the same message that makes no sense is just that; spam. The message wording has some variation, but the overall pattern of the message is the same. I was just guessing at the post count and if he has a bot posting for him, it is not a factual claim. I admit the "every thread" was an exaggeration.

Grasping for straws as usual, since you cannot win the debate via logic and facts.

10 random examples I found with a quick search:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3654070&postcount=83

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672002&postcount=558

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671847&postcount=508

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671744&postcount=467

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3663923&postcount=216

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3663676&postcount=145

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3637355&postcount=333

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3628159&postcount=157

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3626774&postcount=153

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3623338&postcount=166

etc.

Toxigen

01-31-2024, 03:22 PM

jeez wonder what the pattern is

lol

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 03:24 PM

jeez wonder what the pattern is

lol

Trolling and spamming, clearly. These messages have no relevance to the thread, the poster in question, or the guild in question. You could replace the poster and the guild, and the message would be equally nonsensical, irrelevant, and off-topic.

"Toxigen is the new Aftermath" is the same as "DSM is the new Kittens". Both are equally useless to the topic at hand, and say nothing about the poster or guild in question.

Ripqozko

01-31-2024, 04:12 PM

Trolling and spamming, clearly. These messages have no relevance to the thread, the poster in question, or the guild in question. You could replace the poster and the guild, and the message would be equally nonsensical, irrelevant, and off-topic.

"Toxigen is the new Aftermath" is the same as "DSM is the new Kittens". Both are equally useless to the topic at hand, and say nothing about the poster or guild in question.

Sorry , its good to warn people that DSM is the new reflection of kittens. if you want to be around a bunch of DSM app today.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 04:14 PM

Sorry , its good to warn people that DSM is the new reflection of kittens. if you want to be around a bunch of DSM app today.

If you were being sincere, you would say the same thing about posters like Troxx, who actively spam threads, troll other posters, and make up lies that are easy to disprove.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3654070&postcount=83

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672002&postcount=558

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671847&postcount=508

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671744&postcount=467

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3663923&postcount=216

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3663676&postcount=145

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3637355&postcount=333

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3628159&postcount=157

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3626774&postcount=153

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3623338&postcount=166

This targeted spamming is clearly trolling. Sorry you got.

Troxx

01-31-2024, 04:14 PM

This is one of the few random phrases Ripqozko posts in every thread he participates in for no discernable reason.

"<Poster> is the new <Guild>"

Nobody knows why he does this, and I would be curious to know how many of this specific random message is in his history. I would guess 50 posts of it at least.

Perhaps he has a bot posting for him.

Your post indicates he does this in lots of threads and about lots of people … the whole <poster> <guild name> bullshit.

Let’s be clear. The only poster I’ve seen him refer to this way is you. And only in what we the community refer to as DSM threads.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 04:16 PM

Let’s be clear. The only poster I’ve seen him refer to this way is you.

Indeed! That is a pattern of spamming and targeted trolling. I am glad you noticed it too. If he was being sincere, he would also say the same thing about you. You actively spam threads with silly gifs, troll posters, lie about posters, etc.

The difference between yourself and I is I can actually show many examples of you spamming threads with silly gifs, trolling posters, lying about posters, etc. You cannot do the same for me.

As a very quick example, your current location is: "The sands of DSM’s vagina".

You simply think that disagreeing with you is trolling, which is why you accuse me of being one. Unfortunately your behavior matches the definition of a troll, while mine does not.

Troxx

01-31-2024, 04:20 PM

People say things about you because they don’t like you.

If you have a problem with that …

Maybe try not being such a herpetic twat-waffle?

Hope that helps.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 04:25 PM

People say things about you because they don’t like you.

If you have a problem with that …

Maybe try not being such a herpetic twat-waffle?

Hope that helps.

As long as people do not lie about what I have said, it doesn't matter if they like me or not.

Clearly you have a bias against me, which means you are more inclined to troll me, lie about me, etc.

You have such a strong bias against me specifically, you changed your location to: "The sands of DSM’s vagina".

Don't you think people will be just a little suspicious of your motivations when posting? When other people tend to follow your lead, that is also suspicious, especially when regarding a matter of fact that can be proven.

This doesn't help your arguments, because people simply cannot tell when you are being sincere, and when you choose to troll and lie.

Jimjam

01-31-2024, 04:44 PM

Maybe try not being such a herpetic twat-waffle?

Maybe a lil too mean, bud... I'm gonna ban ur swarmcaller from proccing for 3 days.

Duik

01-31-2024, 04:51 PM

Maybe a lil too mean, bud... I'm gonna ban ur swarmcaller from proccing for 3 days.
Now that's a bit mean.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 05:15 PM

DSM, you're not correct about the DOT calculation.

For DD procs, you can just do a straight average of PPM * damage per proc to get expected damage per minute, because the timing doesn't change it at all. This is because with each success valued the same regardless of sequencing, the mean of a binomial distribution is just the probability of success * number of swings, and the PPM system sets the probability of success such that this always comes out to the number of PPM.

This is not the case with a DOT proc because every proc is not equally valuable, you have to calculate the contribution each branch makes to the average individually and sum them to get the correct average. BCBrown is correct in his analysis. I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.

You don't have a 31.2% chance to proc with three swings at 10.4% each, you have a 29.07% chance. You get 0.312 procs of expected value, but 0.0213 of them are bound up in the cases where you proc two or three times out of the three swings, so your chances of proccing at least once are only 29.07%.

You gave it a good shot, bcbrown.

Thanks for taking the time to weigh in, 7thGate. I agree completely.

Because the fight lasts 2 minutes, you have a total of 1.56 procs. This means you are guaranteed 1 DoT proc somehwere within the fight on average.

This just isn't true. Not accurate. This entire approach is based on a flawed foundation of inaccurate reasoning.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 05:22 PM

Thanks for taking the time to weigh in, 7thGate. I agree completely.

This just isn't true. Not accurate. This entire approach is based on a flawed foundation of inaccurate reasoning.

You can't back this up. Simply saying so is irrelevant.

Please post your normal distribution for the dot damage over a 2 minute fight.

Troxx

01-31-2024, 05:25 PM

Maybe a lil too mean, bud... I'm gonna ban ur swarmcaller from proccing for 3 days.

My swarmcaller has been a dick the last few times I logged in. I’m not sure I would notice the difference :p

29 pages to go!

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 05:30 PM

You can't back this up. Simply saying so is irrelevant.

Please post your normal distribution for the dot damage over a 2 minute fight.

There's nothing normal about your math. I have already showed you the only way it can be calculated.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 05:36 PM

There's nothing normal about your math. I have already showed you the only way it can be calculated.

You seem to not know what a Normal Distribution is then. Normal Distribution is how you calculate the odds of having a 50% chance to get heads on a single coin flip. You are looking at how many heads and tails you get over an infinite amount of coin flips.

For a supposed engineer, you should know this basic knowledge. But if you learned something from this, I will be glad to have taught you!

[0, 1] / 2 = 0.5 for a coin flip. This is the same notation I used for my other calculations, just to make it easier for you.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 05:42 PM

That is not how you calculate those odds, and that is not a well-founded understanding of a normal distribution. You're looking for the Law of Large Numbers. I posted it earlier.

It's worth noting that DSM does in fact agree with me regarding the basic mechanics of procs, although he is no longer willing to say so.

If you swing exactly once, it either procs or does not proc. The chance of a proc on that one swing is 10.4%, and the chance of no proc on that one swing is 89.6%.

At the same exact time that you swing, you have a 12% chance to proc the weapon. There is nothing more complicated going on. They are both independent dice rolls that trigger on a per swing basis.

The proc % chance depends upon the weapon delay and dexterity, of course.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 05:46 PM

It's worth noting that DSM does in fact agree with me regarding the basic mechanics of procs, although he is no longer willing to say so.

Another strawman, and nonsense. He forgets that I said you have a 31.2% chance to proc over 3 swings.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672087&postcount=615

Using simple math: 31.2 / 3 = 10.4%. He simply didn't catch this because he wasn't focused on the solution.

There's nothing normal about your math. I have already showed you the only way it can be calculated.

You are saying Binomial Distributions are the only way to do the calculation, but now you agree Normal Distributions exist:

that is not a well-founded understanding of a normal distribution.

So why did you say Binomial Distributions are the only way to do it?

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 05:52 PM

Using simple math: 31.2 / 3 = 10.4%. He simply didn't catch this because he wasn't focused on the solution.

You don't have a 31.2% chance to proc with three swings at 10.4% each, you have a 29.07% chance. You get 0.312 procs of expected value, but 0.0213 of them are bound up in the cases where you proc two or three times out of the three swings, so your chances of proccing at least once are only 29.07%.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 05:55 PM

...

Please explain how Normal Distributions and Uniform Distributions work in comparison to Binomial Distributions. We are getting closer! He has conceded that Binomial Distributions are not the only way to calculate averages, since he admits Normal Distributions exist.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 05:59 PM

I don't think you understand what a probability distribution is. That's alright, most people don't need that knowledge.

zelld52

01-31-2024, 06:10 PM

this is what brad wanted. 71 pages of theoryQuesting. it makes us all better

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 06:13 PM

I don't think you understand what a probability distribution is. That's alright, most people don't need that knowledge.

You seemed to eager to teach before. Remember when you said:

There's nothing normal about your math. I have already showed you the only way it can be calculated.

But now you admit Normal Distributions exist. Uniform Distributions exist too. Please show us the averages of how much damage the DoT will do using a Normal Distribution, and a Uniform Distribution.

Also, please explain why you are choosing to use a Binomial Distribution in a set of averages that are not using Binomial Distributions.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 06:16 PM

But now you admit Normal Distributions exist. Uniform Distributions exist too. Please show us the averages of how much damage the DoT will do using a Normal Distribution, and a Uniform Distribution.

I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.

You can't use a normal distribution for this calculation. It makes no sense. It's not possible. It's not applicable.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 06:20 PM

You can't use a normal distribution for this calculation. It makes no sense. It's not possible.

You haven't explained why this is impossible. You simply claim this is the case.

You have an equal chance to proc per swing, which we both agree upon. This is basically the equivalent of a dice roll.

In the case of 10.4%, you could easily round that to 10 and say this is rolling a dice with 10 sides.

You can in fact do a normal distribution on coin flips and dice rolls. Do you disagree?

Penish

01-31-2024, 06:28 PM

cant believe you guys still engage this chimp, lol

Duik

01-31-2024, 06:37 PM

I once ate a banana, it was 3.2 oranges better than a pineapple.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 06:44 PM

Much like weapon procs, coin flips are a binomial distribution. This weapon proc is a binomial with p = 10.4%. Coin flipping is a binomial distribution with p = 50%. The way to calculate the expected number of Heads, or the expected number of coins, is to note that for a binomial distribution, the expected outcome is equal to np - that is, with 10 coin flips, the expected number of heads is 10 * 0.5 = 5. To be specific, a single coin flip is a Bernoulli distribution with p=0.5, and flipping ten coins is a Binomial distribution with p=0.5 and n=10.

Whenever you flip a coin, or whenever you swing a weapon, the statistical word for what you are doing is "drawing a sample" from the distribution. If you flip ten coins, you have drawn ten samples, or sampled the distribution ten times.

There is a law called the Law of Large Numbers that says that if you draw enough samples, the mean of the samples will approach the mean of the distribution. 'Mean' is the word in statistics that means what most people think of when they think of the word 'average'. The mean of a Binomial(n, p) is n*p, which is why above we said that the expected number of heads after ten flips of a fair coin is 5.

The Central Limit Theorem is a very important theorem in statistics, and it is this theorem that must be the cause of your confusion. It says this: if you sample a distribution, the mean of that sample is is a normal distribution. This does not mean you can then substitute this for the original distribution! It's a completely different calculation.

Here's a longer explanation of the previous paragraph. Say you're sampling from the weapon damage distribution - you're getting hit by some mob. As you take successive samples - as the mob takes one swing after another - you can calculate the average damage taken so far. Those successively calculated averages, those are samples of a different distribution. That different distribution is a Normal distribution. It does not mean that the distribution (weapon swings) from which you are sampling and calculating averages is normally distributed.

https://i.imgur.com/FSyKqbS.png

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 06:45 PM

...

You didn't answer my question.

Do you agree that you can use a normal distribution on coin flips and dice rolls?

I am not discussing Binomial Distributions.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 06:52 PM

I did, you just cannot understand the answer.

DSM, you're not correct

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 06:52 PM

I did, you just cannot understand the answer.

It's a simple yes or no answer. I understand precisely what you are saying, you are simply refusing to listen to what I am saying.

Do you agree that you can use a normal distribution on coin flips and dice rolls, assuming an infinite number of single rolls/flips?

Ripqozko

01-31-2024, 06:57 PM

This is what kittens is now, a bunch of DSM

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 07:00 PM

I tried, man.

You gave it a good shot, bcbrown.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:00 PM

I tried, man.

He keeps dodging the question.

He got really close though!

The Central Limit Theorem is a very important theorem in statistics. It says this: if you sample a distribution, the mean of that sample is is a normal distribution.

https://www.albany.edu/~jr853689/CentralLimitTheoremForDice.htm

At 1 PPM you will get 1 proc per minute on average, assuming an infinite number of weapon swings.

You can convert the sides of the dice to DoT Damages across ticks:

[Roll 1 = 40 damage, Roll 2 = 64, Roll 3 = 88, Roll 4 = 112, Roll 5 = 136, Roll 6 = 160]

Basically you are most likely to roll a 3.5, which means rolling a 3 or a 4. [88 + 112] / 2 = 100 / 36 seconds = 2.77 DPS on average.

This is what I am doing for all of the DPS calculations in my JBB example. Bcbrown is trying to use a Binomial Distribution specifically for procs because he wants to lower the DPS of the weapon proc to strengthen his argument.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 07:13 PM

At 1 PPM you will get 1 proc per minute on average, assuming an infinite number of weapon swings.

We have 16 swings. That's pretty far from infinite.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:16 PM

We have 16 swings. That's pretty far from infinite.

You do realize the 32.8 DPS number from JBB, the 17 DPS number from the Pet, and the 10 DPS number from the Mob were also using infinity, correct? I said so multiple times lol.

If a mob swings 20 times in a fight, they will not always get the expected 10 DPS. Sometimes they will get more, sometimes they will get less. But over an infinite set of 20 swings, the expected DPS averages out to 10 DPS.

Troxx

01-31-2024, 07:21 PM

/facepalm

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 07:21 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:25 PM

The combination of the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, as I have tried to explain to you, can be used to calculate the means of distributions. Those means do not have to be Normal for the calculation to be valid.

In this scenario we have about 16 samples, drawn from a binomial distribution.

If you want to discuss an individual fight, you need to do a binomial distribution for the JBB DPS, the Pet DPS, the Mob DPS, etc.

You don't get to simply set the weapon proc to 16 samples, while leaving all the other samples at infinity.

You are changing the sample size for one variable to try and lower it's DPS in a silly attempt to win.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 07:27 PM

None of those other calculations use binomial distributions.

BCBrown is correct in his analysis.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:28 PM

None of those other calculations use binomial distributions.

Yes, they do. Hit/Miss chance is a coin flip, for example. If the mob has 20 swings per fight, you would do a binomial distribution of 20 coin flips to determine damage done to the player.

Again, if you want to do the binomial distributions for all of the variables in the fight, go for it! I am using the normal distribution for simplicity's sake in my examples. You do not get to set one variable to binomial while leaving the rest as normal.

zelld52

01-31-2024, 07:28 PM

WTB JBB

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:34 PM

WTB JBB

Good investment!

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 07:35 PM

Yes, they do. Hit/Miss chance is a coin flip, for example. If the mob has 20 swings per fight, you would do a binomial distribution of 20 coin flips to determine damage done to the player.

Hit/miss is bernoulli/binomial, but the damage itself is a multivariate distribution, as there's a separate calculation of actual damage upon a hit. I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

For DD procs, you can just do a straight average of PPM * damage per proc to get expected damage per minute, because the timing doesn't change it at all. This is because with each success valued the same regardless of sequencing, the mean of a binomial distribution is just the probability of success * number of swings, and the PPM system sets the probability of success such that this always comes out to the number of PPM.

This is not the case with a DOT proc because every proc is not equally valuable, you have to calculate the contribution each branch makes to the average individually and sum them to get the correct average. BCBrown is correct in his analysis. I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:40 PM

Hit/miss is bernoulli/binomial

There you go!

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same. They're both a property of an individual swing. Why can't you answer this question? Do you understand the words I am using?

You also agree that Hit/Miss and Proc Rate are the same.

Literally the only difference between the two is the percentage. Hit/Miss is 50%, Proc rate is 10.4% in our example.

I am using a Normal Distribution for damage on all variables. You are trying to change the proc damage to a binomial distribution specifically, while leaving all of the other damages as Normal Distributions.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 07:40 PM

the damage itself is a multivariate distribution, as there's a separate calculation of actual damage upon a hit. I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:44 PM

I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

Indeed! In the case of Ionat:

[44, 54, 64, 74, 84, 94, 104, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, 176, 186, 196, 206, 216, 226, 237]

In the case of Scourge:

[40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280, 304, 328, 352, 376, 400, 424, 448, 472, 496, 520, 544]

Both calculations use a percent chance for success, and both calculations use a uniform set of discreet numbers.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 07:45 PM

It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 07:46 PM

It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

Thanks for admitting defeat. I am glad to see you realized your mistake, and agreed with me. Please don't be a sore loser.

To summarize:

Hit/miss is bernoulli/binomial

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same. They're both a property of an individual swing. Why can't you answer this question? Do you understand the words I am using?

Hit/Miss Chance = 50%, Proc Chance = 10.4% in our specific JBB example of 1.3PPM and 7.5/12.5 swings. The only difference between the two is the specific percentage.

but the damage itself is a multivariate distribution, as there's a separate calculation of actual damage upon a hit. I've been told that this calculation draws from a uniform set of 20 discrete numbers.

Ionat:

[44, 54, 64, 74, 84, 94, 104, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, 176, 186, 196, 206, 216, 226, 237]

Scourge:

[40, 64, 88, 112, 136, 160, 184, 208, 232, 256, 280, 304, 328, 352, 376, 400, 424, 448, 472, 496, 520, 544]

Both calculations use a percent chance for success, and both calculations use a uniform set of discreet numbers.

Procing once per minute using a DoT is basically equivalent to hitting with your weapon 1 time per minute, and selecting a damage value from the discreet number set. Instead of simply selecting a random value, the number picked from the DoT's discreet number set is based on the time you procced the dot vs. the expected time remaining in the encounter. If the DoT procs again, you simply select the DD value of the DoT instead.

Jimjam

01-31-2024, 08:17 PM

I’m really glad you guys are having this discussion as I’ve been trying to relearn basic statistics recently and it has been very helpful to have so many examples using eq to help get my head around how things do / do not work.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 08:24 PM

Duik

01-31-2024, 09:01 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 09:04 PM

So it can end now?
With one person who thinks he won because everyone else gave up?
That is the adult way to determine a winner.
Like scissors, rock, paper, lizard spock.
My only regret is that we didnt hit 100.

I did win the debate. Bcbrown was incorrectly assuming:

None of those other calculations use binomial distributions.

while simultaneously agreeing:

Of course miss rate and proc rate both work the same.

He cannot say the miss rate is binomial and not binomial simultaneously.

This confusion is why he thought he could change the proc DPS from a Normal Distribution to a Binomial Distribution, while leaving the other DPS values as Normal Distributions.

I've been telling him this for 20+ pages now.

bcbrown

01-31-2024, 09:07 PM

DSM, you're not correct. BCBrown is correct in his analysis. You gave it a good shot, bcbrown.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 09:09 PM

As you can see, Bcbrown cannot rebut my argument.

For people looking to understand the Normal Distribution of DPS on DoT Weapon Procs: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3672414&postcount=721 - Weapons cannot proc more than 2 times per minute, assuming 255 DEX. The first proc is using the DoT Damage converted into sides of a dice described in the linked post, and subsequent procs use the Direct Damage component of the proc as long as the DoT is active.

For people looking to understand why JBB is better than root/rotting for leveling from 45-60 on a Shaman without Epic: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671952&postcount=523

For people looking to understand why FSI is the MinMax option on Shamans: https://www.project1999.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3671204&postcount=311

PatChapp

01-31-2024, 09:20 PM

Ogres don't get the stupid bear hat or dumb blue face paint. Fashion is the true min max option

Ruien

01-31-2024, 09:30 PM

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 09:46 PM

Most threads on this board that open with a reasonable question get an answer from Toxigen or DSM that most people silently affirm as pretty much on point and that adding more would be diminishing returns. That was page 1.

It then proceeds that pages 2-75 are Toxigen and DSM defending their obviously right answer against an avalanche of hubris. It's incredible.

I agree, it is incredible. Unfortunately I expect the usual suspects will claim you are an alternate account of mine in an attempt to discredit you. I apologize for that on their behalf in advance.

I do have one question, though. Earlier, you said that a 66% slow would reduce DPS from 25 to roughly 8, using a calculation like:

slowed_dps = unslowed_dps * (1 - slow_percent)

Where `slow_percent` for instance is 0.7 for Forlorn Deeds.

However, I was once told (by a guild leader) that the slow percentages shown in the wiki are actually applied as a percentage increase in delay, so for example a 100% slow would halve the mob's attack speed, effectively halving its dps instead of reducing it to zero. That is, it would be something like this:

slowed_dps = unslowed_dps / (1 + slow_percent)

Have you encountered this dichotomy before, and is the first formula correct?

Two answers to your question, just to make sure I understand it correctly.

In the JBB example, we were using a level 58 Shaman, and the slow we were using was https://wiki.project1999.com/Togor%27s_Insects .

The important part is this line:

Decrease Attack Speed by 49% (L39) to 70% (L60)

Some spells in P99 scale based on your level. In this spell's case, a Shaman would get +1% to the base 49% each level starting at level 39. This means a 58 Shaman is slowing the mob by 68%.

I multiply the DPS number by the inverse of of the percentage. 100% - 68% = 32 x 0.01 = 0.32 x 25 DPS = 8 DPS. I was too lazy to calculate the exact slow percentage based on level when I made that post, so I quickly guesstimated the percent at 67.

When reversing the slow you would multiply the number by how many times the inverse of the percentage goes into 100%. For example, 25% goes into 100% four times. 100% / 25% = 4.0.

Actual logged damage from a single Ionat fight = 23088 damage / 1248 seconds = 18.5 DPS (Slowed by 75%) x 4.0 = 74 DPS.

We know this 74 DPS value is correct based on the average damage from the damage table:

[44, 54, 64, 74, 84, 94, 104, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, 176, 186, 196, 206, 216, 226, 237] = 2801 damage / 20 damage values = 140.05 damage x 0.5 Hit Rate = 70.5 DPS average

The 23088 damage value was hits from the Weapon Damage Table only. It was not including Kick/Bash DPS. Ionat simply did a bit more damage to me in this particular fight than the expected average. The game also adds some weight to the dice when rolling on the Weapon Damage Table based on a mitigation formula. In this fight I got 2 rolls that use the first 10 values in the Weapon Damage Table for every 1 roll that uses the last 10 values in the Weapon Damage Table.

Ruien

01-31-2024, 09:53 PM

Got it- thanks. This is what I thought, but since it contradicted what I had heard (and I had not spent time parsing damage myself), I figured it was a good opportunity to confirm.

Duik

01-31-2024, 10:19 PM

Omg. By the logic if my post you did win! You havent given up!
A winner has a name, and it is Distributed Statistical Manipulations.
Congratulations, take a bow and leave the dais.
You won.

Troxx

01-31-2024, 10:37 PM

I doth declare myself the winner for I most obviously won the argument! It is true because I say so.

Thank you for conceding that you were wrong and I was right!

aussenseiter

01-31-2024, 11:08 PM

I agree, it is incredible. Unfortunately I expect the usual suspects will claim you are an alternate account of mine in an attempt to discredit you. I apologize for that on their behalf in advance.

Is it ok if I think Troxx is your alt?

Because I do.

DeathsSilkyMist

01-31-2024, 11:12 PM

Is it ok if I think Troxx is your alt?

Because I do.

That would be pretty amazing honestly. Sadly it isn't true, but I like your head canon.