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  #1  
Old 10-09-2025, 08:29 AM
kjs86z2 kjs86z2 is online now
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more AC more gooder
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  #2  
Old 10-09-2025, 01:29 PM
bcbrown bcbrown is offline
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The shield parse looks about the same to me as the others. I'd want to see another parse replicating it before I'd say there's any impact from a shield here. 400 hits is very noisy and the difference between 1 max-hit and 7 max-hits could easily just be noise.
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  #3  
Old 10-09-2025, 01:38 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
The shield parse looks about the same to me as the others. I'd want to see another parse replicating it before I'd say there's any impact from a shield here. 400 hits is very noisy and the difference between 1 max-hit and 7 max-hits could easily just be noise.
Two 400 hit parses with a shield, one at 55 AC and one at 190 AC both show an average minimum hits of 179. That is 800 hits total.

Three 400 hit parses without a shield at 55 AC, 61 AC, and 178 AC show an average of 164 minimum hits. That is 1200 hits total.

The datasets are larger than 400 if you agree that I am not getting any additional returns at 55 AC and beyond.

There is a clear pattern where minimum hits increase and other hits decrease as AC increases when looking at all the data. This is also the expected result for the D20 function.
Last edited by DeathsSilkyMist; 10-09-2025 at 01:43 PM..
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  #4  
Old 10-09-2025, 01:47 PM
bcbrown bcbrown is offline
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Perhaps. There's a hint of something being there, but nothing conclusive yet. I'm still dubious.
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  #5  
Old 10-09-2025, 01:51 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Perhaps. There's a hint of something being there, but nothing conclusive yet. I'm still dubious.
I will try to run some larger tests. These smaller tests were to show that the possibility exists, so it warrants further investigation. These tests do take a while to conduct, and mobs can deagro you over time if you aren't occasionally doing something like auto attacking with bare fists (so you don't kill the mob).
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  #6  
Old 10-09-2025, 04:59 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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I did a longer test. Two sets of 1400 hits with 178 AC. One set with a 12 AC shield, one set without.

==============================
178 AC, 12 of this AC is from a shield
==============================

DV, Count
1, 603
2, 84
3, 92
4, 43
5, 118
6, 77
7, 83
8, 41
9, 87
10, 100
11, 62
12, 10

Total Damage = 5765

===============
178 AC, No shield
===============

DV, Count
1, 580
2, 78
3, 91
4, 34
5, 92
6, 99
7, 101
8, 56
9, 98
10, 102
11, 50
12, 19

Total Damage = 6034

Even at higher sample sizes, the shield is still performing better. Less damage and more minimum hits. The difference is small, so it looks like the softcap increase from a shield isn't 1 AC = +1 Softcap, at least at lower levels. I probably only got 1 or 2 extra AC.

In my opinion, this indicates that the level * 6 + 25 formula is a worn AC clamp for low levels, not a softcap. The falloff past ~45 AC comes from the softcap. Shields do increase the softcap, but it is not a 1 AC to 1 Softcap increase at level 5. It may increase as you level up.
Last edited by DeathsSilkyMist; 10-09-2025 at 05:17 PM..
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  #7  
Old 10-09-2025, 05:37 PM
Jimjam Jimjam is online now
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So you think there is a cap on shield overcap ac? Maybe it is level based? so at level 5 maybe you can overcap by 5 ac?
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  #8  
Old 10-09-2025, 05:43 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimjam [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
So you think there is a cap on shield overcap ac? Maybe it is level based? so at level 5 maybe you can overcap by 5 ac?
Yes, and it makes sense when you think about it. If the softcap increase was 1 AC to 1 softcap, a 45 AC softcap would be completely removed by a 10+ AC shield when a level 5's worn AC clamp is 55.

This would make shields a bit OP at low levels, especially with the abundance of 25 AC Sarnak Battle Shields.

The data right now indicates a 12 AC shield would only increase your softcap by 1 or 2. Maybe it's 10% of the shields AC at level 5, but I haven't compared other shields yet.
Last edited by DeathsSilkyMist; 10-09-2025 at 05:53 PM..
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  #9  
Old 10-09-2025, 08:53 PM
bcbrown bcbrown is offline
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That last pair of parses certainly shows that shield AC has an effect when overcapped at level 5. I would urge you to start posting predictions in this thread before each future experiment. That way you can compare the actual results with your hypothesis.
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  #10  
Old 10-09-2025, 09:09 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
That last pair of parses certainly shows that shield AC has an effect when overcapped at level 5.
Thank you!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
I would urge you to start posting predictions in this thread before each future experiment. That way you can compare the actual results with your hypothesis.
I did explain what I was expecting already earlier. I've asked you before in other threads to read the thread before making claims like these.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...6&postcount=58

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
The 45 AC does not invalidate Haynar's formula, as a softcap exists as well. The shield test shows the softcap. With a softcap, you can never actually hit the hardcap.

This is because once you hit the softcap of 45, the last 10 AC between 45 and 55 gets softcapped. The hardcap prevents you from having more than 55 worn AC, so 178 worn AC gets clamped to 55.

With a softcap at 45 and a hardcap at 55, the best AC you could get is 47 if the softcap return is 20%.

A shield increases softcap, so you get closer to 55.
This post too:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...2&postcount=61

The last set of parses was post 68:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...8&postcount=68
Last edited by DeathsSilkyMist; 10-09-2025 at 09:17 PM..
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