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#651
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![]() If you go Iksar you'll always be able to be the best you can be. If you go Ogre today you'll never have Guise (although AoN is cooler than dark elf) and never have 2 sky rings. You also won't have Trollbutt.
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#652
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#654
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__________________
Shamwowi Wipesalot (60 SHM) | Bazgek Bonebreaker (60 SK) | Sznake Pliszken (52 MNK) | Laanfear (30 ENC)
Do you have questions about Shaman races? Read my guide: https://wiki.project1999.com/Shamwow...man_Race_Guide Want to see Shaman videos? Check out my youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFU...zEFJVBIH3-jUog | |||
#655
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![]() I'd like to start by apologizing for provoking such a massive derailment. I wouldn't have done so, except this thread was already full derailed and the question posed by the OP had been answered with no disagreement.
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#656
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If you want to use binomial distributions, your equation needs to look like this: Binomial Distribution A + Binomial Distribution B = C If you want to use normal distributions, your equation needs to look like this: Normal Distribution A + Normal Distribution B = C Doing this is incorrect: Normal Distribution A + Binomial Distribution A = C This is why I keep saying Bcbrown is using averages wrong. He is basically trying to lower the DPS number by using the incorrect type of average. For people looking to understand the Normal Distribution of DPS on procs and white damage: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=646 For people looking to understand why JBB is better than root/rotting for leveling from 45-60 on a Shaman without Epic: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=523 For people looking to understand why FSI is the MinMax option on Shamans: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=311
__________________
Shamwowi Wipesalot (60 SHM) | Bazgek Bonebreaker (60 SK) | Sznake Pliszken (52 MNK) | Laanfear (30 ENC)
Do you have questions about Shaman races? Read my guide: https://wiki.project1999.com/Shamwow...man_Race_Guide Want to see Shaman videos? Check out my youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFU...zEFJVBIH3-jUog | |||
Last edited by DeathsSilkyMist; 01-30-2024 at 04:53 PM..
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#657
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![]() And we have a finite number of events. While i do not understand fully the math i can grasp there is a difference because our fights take a finite number of random or percentage inputs.
I also understand all of us will not get this subtle difference. I say just play and give your mana to a kobold in the form of dot damage followed by a dd from a smoldering brand (eventually hehe) then give it a good rogering (root it). Doggy is being a good boy. Always end fights with ZERO MANA and 12% health. That way you know you are fighting lvl appropriate content. Extra points for medding on a pathing mobs route. That is min/max. Minimum XP from maximum expenditure. Go forth and modulus divide! | ||
#658
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Bcbrown is trying to mix a Binomial Distribution into Normal Distributions, which is incorrect. He is using the Normal Distribution (infinite) JBB DPS, while trying to use the Binomial Distribution (finite) weapon proc DPS.
__________________
Shamwowi Wipesalot (60 SHM) | Bazgek Bonebreaker (60 SK) | Sznake Pliszken (52 MNK) | Laanfear (30 ENC)
Do you have questions about Shaman races? Read my guide: https://wiki.project1999.com/Shamwow...man_Race_Guide Want to see Shaman videos? Check out my youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFU...zEFJVBIH3-jUog | |||
#659
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But to close the loop on the simplified example we started yesterday: If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, the probability is 10.4 * 89.6 * 89.6, or 8.35%, and does 112 damage If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=8 swing, the probability is 89.6 * 10.4 * 89.6, or 8.35%, and does 88 damage If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=16 swing, the probability is 89.6 * 89.6 * 10.4, or 8.35%, and does 64 damage If there's no proc, damage is 0, the probability is 89.6 * 89.6 * 89.6, 71.9%, and does zero damage If there's two procs at t=0 and t=8, the probability is 10.4 * 10.4 * 89.6, or 0.97%, and does 152 damage If there's two procs at t=0 and t=16, the probability is 10.4 * 89.6 * 10.4, or 0.97%, and does 152 damage If there's two procs at t=8 and t=16, the probability is 89.6 * 10.4 * 10.4, or 0.97%, and does 112 damage If there's a proc on all three swings, the probability is 10.4 * 10.4 * 10.4, or 0.11%, and does 192 damage The sum of probabilities is 100% after compensating for rounding: 8.35 + 8.35 + 8.35 + 71.9 + 0.97 + 0.97 + 0.97 + 0.11 = 99.97 The expected value is equal to the sum of all the possible outcomes, each weighted by the probability of that outcome occurring. 112 * .0835 + 88 * .0835 + 64 * .0835 + 0 * .719 + 152 * .0097 + 152 * .0097 + 112 * .0097 + 192 * .0011 = 26.29 So the expected damage is 26.29 over an 18 second fight, or 1.46 DPS. This calculation will provide a different DPS value for a 132 second fight, but the principle behind the calculation is the same. I did this calculation here, and came up with 0.75DPS | |||
#660
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https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=525 Quote:
Bcbrown is complaining about subtlety, while simultaneously trying to Shave 1 DPS off of the JBB Shaman in this post in a clear attempt to "win" or "not be wrong": https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=523 . This is clearly projection. I factually admitted to being wrong in this very thread when you pointed out I missed the meditation mana in my older calculations. It's trivial to disprove this kind of strawman nonsense. Making a mistake in a math calculation does not mean I have to automatically concede my entire argument. Troxx had incorrect math calculations too, but I don't see you applying the same accusations to him. Bcbrown forgets that I am not including white damage from the Shaman hitting the mob while trying to proc, which means you would probably still end up with roughly 2 DPS at minimum using both of his DPS numbers. Regardless of whether his Binomial Distribution math is correct or not, he isn't getting his desired outcome of decreasing the JBB Shaman's DPS numbers enough to give the DoT Shaman the edge. The JBB Shaman's numbers are actually higher since I used a lower PPM value and didn't include white damage, but I don't need to change the existing numbers. The JBB Shaman is already winning with the lower 2.2 DPS value. He is also mixing Normal Distributions and Binomial Distributions, which I have called him out on multiple times. My calculations are all using Normal Distributions. The data fully supports my claim that JBB is the best leveling tool from 45-60 without Epic. For people looking to understand the Normal Distribution of DPS on procs and white damage: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=646 For people looking to understand why JBB is better than root/rotting for leveling from 45-60 on a Shaman without Epic: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=523 For people looking to understand why FSI is the MinMax option on Shamans: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=311
__________________
Shamwowi Wipesalot (60 SHM) | Bazgek Bonebreaker (60 SK) | Sznake Pliszken (52 MNK) | Laanfear (30 ENC)
Do you have questions about Shaman races? Read my guide: https://wiki.project1999.com/Shamwow...man_Race_Guide Want to see Shaman videos? Check out my youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFU...zEFJVBIH3-jUog | ||||
Last edited by DeathsSilkyMist; 01-30-2024 at 05:35 PM..
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