Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[Toxigen]

jesus

titty

fkin

christ

[Troxx]

Look man he already spelled it out for you very comprehensively:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=531

It is absolutely ok to admit it went over your head. I imagine that level of math would go over most college educated adults heads. There is no shame in that. I’ve got a doctorate and it have me a slight headache trying to follow him. But he is correct.

You aren’t going to win a math fight with a senior engineer bro

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Look man he already spelled it out for you very comprehensively:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=531

It is absolutely ok to admit it went over your head. I imagine that level of math would go over most college educated adults heads.

You aren’t going to win a math fight with a senior engineer bro

A title means nothing if you still cannot do the math correctly. Argument from authority is a fallacy.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=538 - This is how proc chance works on P99. If it didn't, you couldn't use "Procs Per Minute" as an accurate metric. If your DEX gives you 2 procs per minute, you get 2 procs per minute on average, assuming you never stop auto attacking. There will be fights where you get 0 procs, and fights where you get 4 procs, but it will average out to 2 procs on average.

[bcbrown]

Let's simplify the problem a little, and assume there's only three swings in the fight, they happen 8 seconds apart, and each swing has a 1/12 chance of a proc.

Using Y for a proc and N for no proc, there's 2^3 or eight possible outcomes:
YYY
YYN
YNY
YNN
NYY
NYN
NNY
NNN

In each of these eight outcomes, how much total damage does the proc do?

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Let's simplify the problem a little, and assume there's only three swings in the fight, they happen 8 seconds apart, and each swing has a 1/12 chance of a proc.

Using Y for a proc and N for no proc, there's 2^3 or eight possible outcomes:
YYY
YYN
YNY
YNN
NYY
NYN
NNY
NNN

In each of these eight outcomes, how much total damage does the proc do?

You are thinking about the problem incorrectly.

Proccing is the exact same concept as rolling a D12 twelve times in a row and hoping for one specific number one time. Worst case you get the number after 12 rolls, best case you get the number after 1 roll.

Average is rolling 6.5 times to get the specific number you want.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Proccing is the exact same concept as rolling a D12 twelve times in a row and hoping for one specific number one time. Worst case you get the number after 12 rolls, best case you get the number after 1 roll.

If you're hoping for a 1, and you roll a D12 twelve times, you are not guaranteed to get a 1.

This is because each roll is independent. Rolling eleven 12s doesn't change the probability that the next roll is a 1.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you're hoping for a 1, and you roll a D12 twelve times, you are not guaranteed to get a 1.

Of course not! But on average if you roll a d12 twelve times, you will get a 1 at least once. I never said it is a guarantee. I said it is the average.

You don't seem to realize that the other DPS values in my example are calculated in the exact same way. If you disagree with the proc rate average, then you must also disagree with all of the other average DPS's in the example, and change them too. You do not get to cherry pick one number and change it simply to make your side look better.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Of course not! But on average if you roll a d12 twelve times, you will get a 1 at least once. I never said it is a guarantee. I said it is the average.

You don't seem to realize that the other DPS values in my example are calculated in the exact same way. If you disagree with the proc rate average, then you must also disagree with all of the other average DPS's in the example, and change them too. You do not get to cherry pick one number and change it simply to make your side look better.

The proc rate is the only calculation where the damage from a successful event is not independent on prior events. This is the point you're failing to understand.

Every other damage calculation is independent. The damage of the second Winter's Roar is independent of the first Winter's Roar. The damage done by a second proc is not independent of whether the first swing procced.

Duik gets it.

[Troxx]

Bcbrown’s masterclass is in session!

/popcorn

[Duik]

So doc brown is saying 2ppm may be true (over the whole liftime of everything) but he is trying to determine the difference and chances of a proc happening AND at what point in a short battle it happens?
Each 2 mims there could be a proc but just cuz there is none dont mean one will come next minute.
Just cuz there is a proc this minute dont mean there wont be one again that minute. They are seperate entities unreliant on each other.

I -- edit-- DONT --edit-- fully get his math but im getting the difference between 2ppm and the statistical chances of and distribution of proc(s) during a battle of x length.