What's your "I have the worst luck" EQ moment(s)?

[Duik]

Ohh look, it's mr one trick pony himself.

Oh, and pointless caveat filled "fastest to 50" (using hunderds of hours of other peoples time) "first to kill <a_lame_mob1>" (in a sea of mediocracy maybe has 1/10 merit) and the evergreen "highest DPS within a narrow scope that nobody else bothers with".

See my sig for more info! Lolocaust.

[Ekco]

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[shovelquest]

Originally Posted by Ekco [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

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[Jimjam]

I’d say after getting heads 40 times in a row you’re most likely to get heads next - it is more likely you have an imbalanced or double headed coin than you’ve got a one in a trillion streak of heads on a equally balanced coin.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by Jimjam [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I’d say after getting heads 40 times in a row you’re most likely to get heads next - it is more likely you have an imbalanced or double headed coin than you’ve got a one in a trillion streak of heads on a equally balanced coin.

This is the true Bayesian way - it's time to update your priors.

https://xkcd.com/1132/

[shovelquest]

Originally Posted by Jimjam [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I’d say after getting heads 40 times in a row you’re most likely to get heads next - it is more likely you have an imbalanced or double headed coin than you’ve got a one in a trillion streak of heads on a equally balanced coin.

or...

[cd288]

I don't mean this as an insult, but I've never understood the sacrificing your health for something like a manastone that has niche case use and is really only useful for a couple classes.

[WarpathEQ]

Learned last night that killing and respawning a quest turn in NPC does not actually reset their turn in log. Caused me to mess up a $50k MQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You're either arguing in bad faith or living above your intellectual means. Have a good day sir.

Just hate it when people intentionally conflate probability in this game to justify their bad luck. It sucks that the original complainer failed the shawl combine 6 times, but it sounds like they need to raise their tailoring skill.

Someone telling them on the forums that it's statistically improbable to fail that many times is just factually incorrect. It's an anomaly, for sure, but it's still within acceptable terms of probability.

I'm sorry that you cannot fathom that the chance for failure was still real after 6 tries, but the previous 5 tries do not have any influence on the sixth attempt.

I wish people would stop pushing the gambler's fallacy as probability. It's a huge mistake that lots of people make.

It's obvious that I can't fix stupid, though.

[cd288]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Just hate it when people intentionally conflate probability in this game to justify their bad luck. It sucks that the original complainer failed the shawl combine 6 times, but it sounds like they need to raise their tailoring skill.

Someone telling them on the forums that it's statistically improbable to fail that many times is just factually incorrect. It's an anomaly, for sure, but it's still within acceptable terms of probability.

I'm sorry that you cannot fathom that the chance for failure was still real after 6 tries, but the previous 5 tries do not have any influence on the sixth attempt.

I wish people would stop pushing the gambler's fallacy as probability. It's a huge mistake that lots of people make.

It's obvious that I can't fix stupid, though.

I'm not disagreeing with you that it's not within a realm of probability to fail that many times. Just saying that's not what the gambler's fallacy is really.