What's your "I have the worst luck" EQ moment(s)?

[Ekco]

was in a family guild and in the rules it stated that 100dkp was the max bid on a item, it had never come up before until VS dropped wizzy staff, so i had to /roll random 100 for my epic piece even though i had more dkp than the other guy. lost the roll, left the guild and didn't finish my epic until like 4 years later.

[Swish]

Back in my Europa days I'll always remember something similar. There was an established guy who'd been in the guild a long time and an item dropped that he needed. I think it was an epic piece, it was tradeable whatever it was, and him and another guy needed it who'd been in the guild less than a month.

The officers told them to roll, established guy loses roll and starts complaining AFTER the roll. Then there was pressure for new guy to give it to established guy not just from the bitching guy that lost but from the officers as well. New guy was reluctant, I backed him up saying it was fair and square... and yeah the new guy said it wasn't worth it in the end and handed it over.

I think he left the guild a few weeks later. He definitely stopped raiding with us. Sad.

[Yinaltin]

Originally Posted by Swish [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Back in my Europa days I'll always remember something similar. There was an established guy who'd been in the guild a long time and an item dropped that he needed. I think it was an epic piece, it was tradeable whatever it was, and him and another guy needed it who'd been in the guild less than a month.

The officers told them to roll, established guy loses roll and starts complaining AFTER the roll. Then there was pressure for new guy to give it to established guy not just from the bitching guy that lost but from the officers as well. New guy was reluctant, I backed him up saying it was fair and square... and yeah the new guy said it wasn't worth it in the end and handed it over.

I think he left the guild a few weeks later. He definitely stopped raiding with us. Sad.

Uh i remember that day. i really felt for that guy.

had something similar needed to do my necro epic and wanted to save all my dkp for that CT drop. europa merged to remedy to lux to darkwind to rampage to tr to ib and everytime the dkp got reset and i never got the CT drop. Still havent completed my epic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[shovelquest]

So does this mean, if you flip a coin 50 times.

Sometimes youll get 49 heads 1 tails?

Sometimes youll get 49 tails 1 heads?

Sometimes youll get 50 heads? Sometimes youll get 50 tails?

Or if you flip a coin 50 times, youll on average get 25 of each?

If so, and for some reason you are looking at 40 heads after 40 flips, wouldn't the odds that it will be tails be higher? or is this just only explainable with a catchphrase "gamblers phalacy" unless you have a PHD in mathematics?

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by shovelquest [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If so, and for some reason you are looking at 40 heads after 40 flips, wouldn't the odds that it will be tails be higher?

no, you would not have a higher percent chance of getting tails after 40 heads in a row. that's what the other people are implying by using the word "probability"

previous iterations have zero impact on the next event.

it's still 50/50 to be heads again.

[Goregasmic]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

no, you would not have a higher percent chance of getting tails after 40 heads in a row. that's what the other people are implying by using the word "probability"

No one is saying this. They basically explained the low likelihood of getting a particular result in a string of the same event. Both concepts coexist. You're either trolling or you have no understanding of the concept of probabilities. The good thing is they still exist wether you believe in them or not.

Like, people calculated you have 72% chance to get a raster of guk spawn if you spend 10 hours there. You still have only 5% chance per spawn and it doesn't mean the spawn at the 10th hour is a 72% chance to be raster. Both statements are true regardless.

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No one is saying this. They basically explained the low likelihood of getting a particular result in a string of the same event. Both concepts coexist. You're either trolling or you have no understanding of the concept of probabilities. The good thing is they still exist wether you believe in them or not.

Like, people calculated you have 72% chance to get a raster of guk spawn if you spend 10 hours there. You still have only 5% chance per spawn and it doesn't mean the spawn at the 10th hour is a 72% chance to be raster. Both statements are true regardless.

One of these is probability, one of these is gambler's fallacy. The 72% unreliable. You cannot string failures together to assume success.

[Goregasmic]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

One of these is probability, one of these is gambler's fallacy. The 72% unreliable. You cannot string failures together to assume success.

You're either arguing in bad faith or living above your intellectual means. Have a good day sir.

[Ekco]

ou’re onto an interesting thought process here, but let's break it down a bit.
1. Coin flips are independent events.

A coin flip is (assuming it's a fair coin) independent of all the flips that came before it. That means, on each flip, the probability of getting heads or tails is always 50/50, no matter what’s happened up to that point.

So if you’ve already flipped 40 heads in 40 flips (wildly unlikely, but not impossible), the odds of the next flip being tails are still 50%. This is where the gambler's fallacy comes in—thinking past outcomes influence future probabilities in independent events. They don’t.
2. Outcomes over 50 flips.

If you flip a coin 50 times, on average, you’ll get 25 heads and 25 tails, but that doesn’t mean it will always land exactly like that. Probability allows for a range of outcomes:

It’s very rare to get something extreme like 50 heads or 50 tails, but it’s not impossible.
The most likely outcome is something close to 25 heads and 25 tails, but the exact distribution will vary with each set of 50 flips.

The more flips you do, the closer the ratio of heads to tails is likely to get to 50:50 (this is the law of large numbers), but over small numbers of flips, you’ll see more variation.
3. What about 40 heads in 40 flips?

This is insanely improbable but not impossible. The probability of flipping 40 heads in a row is:
(0.5)40=1 in 1,099,511,627,776
(0.5)40=1 in 1,099,511,627,776

So if you're seeing that, you're either:

Very lucky (or unlucky).
Flipping a rigged coin. ��

But even then, the odds for the 41st flip are still 50/50 if the coin is fair.
TL;DR:

Coin flips are independent.
On average, you’ll get close to 25 heads and 25 tails in 50 flips, but it’s not guaranteed.
The gambler’s fallacy explains why we feel like tails would be "due" after seeing 40 heads, but mathematically, the odds remain the same: 50/50.

someone taught this thing TL;DR lol.

[Castle2.0]

Only got ~8 manastones instead of 9?