PSA: Reasonable probability that charm has been nerfed

[koros]

Misread that part.

However, I still think that 1. The sample size is likely too small, especially for a bootstrapping method, and 2. It's entirely possible (and looks likely) that the distribution is bimodal, or something else entirely. Perhaps MR in seb even got jacked up.

Regarding my experience charming in MM, due to my limited mana regen and the fact that I charm soloed for 3 hours, significant differences in mean charm duration should have made me unable to keep the entire area clear as consistently as I did, mana was tight last time I did this.

I'll do some analysis when I get home from work.

[Splorf22]

Originally Posted by koros [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Misread that part.

However, I still think that 1. The sample size is likely too small, especially for a bootstrapping method, and 2. It's entirely possible (and looks likely) that the distribution is bimodal, or something else entirely. Perhaps MR in seb even got jacked up.

Regarding my experience charming in MM, due to my limited mana regen and the fact that I charm soloed for 3 hours, significant differences in mean charm duration should have made me unable to keep the entire area clear as consistently as I did, mana was tight last time I did this.

I'll do some analysis when I get home from work.

If my analysis is correct, there is a ~10% probability that I was just unlucky with my tests. It's certainly not impossible, so I titled the thread 'reasonable probability'.

Also the biggest issue with MM is probably that L20 mobs will kill each other pretty fast, so you probably never need long charms when soloing. It's at 50+ when mobs HP starts going crazy that you have more breaks.

Originally Posted by Barkingturtle

I suspect J-Boots are about 3% slower, too.

That's probably because you don't know how to use estimators and confidence intervals to actually measure things. Of course, if you did your ego might not be so starved for attention that you have to troll the boards all day.

[Barkingturtle]

Originally Posted by Splorf22 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

That's probably because you don't know how to use estimators and confidence intervals to actually measure things. Of course, if you did your ego might not be so starved for attention that you have to troll the boards all day.

Oh calm down, Champ. The J-Boots thing is a classic EQ joke and meant to inspire lulz amongst Classic EQ enthusiasts, not angst. Man, I don't remember what I did to you but it must have been hurtful. I'm sorry.

[Hawala]

Originally Posted by koros [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Last night in Mistmoore, on my 28 enc, I soloed the last half of the level using the same mobs I had used to previously solo the first part. Charm seemed no different (better if anything)

Same at level 35, better.

[koros]

Splorf,

This data makes me quite certain either 1. Charm wasn't nerfed, or 2. Your sample size is WAY too low, additionally it's likely some unknown instrumental variable was in effect here due to the strange distribution.

Population mean of 127, with a standard deviation of 121 and a standard error of estimation of 28. This doesn't add up. I think bootstrapping was definitely the wrong method to use.

[Splorf22]

Originally Posted by koros [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Splorf,

This data makes me quite certain either 1. Charm wasn't nerfed, or 2. Your sample size is WAY too low, additionally it's likely some unknown instrumental variable was in effect here due to the strange distribution.

Population mean of 127, with a standard deviation of 121 and a standard error of estimation of 28. This doesn't add up. I think bootstrapping was definitely the wrong method to use.

I guess I'm a bit confused? I thought Central Limit Theorem implied that the standard error of the distribution of the mean should be 1/sqrt(n) that of the original distribution. 121 / sqrt(18) = 28.5 which is pretty close.

I can say that I know the distribution for charm for these types of mobs. You can think of it as being two uniform distrubtions: a "good" charm with say 10% chance, U(6-15 min) and a "normal" charm with say 90% chance, U(0-6 minutes). As your level gets higher or lower I'm not sure whether the midpoint changes or the chance of good/normal changes or both.

[koros]

You're right on central limit theorem, that's where I got the numbers I mentioned from.

Given the very high standard deviation, (only 68% of charms last 1 tick to 4 minutes? ) I don't think we can infer that we've reached an accurate mean.

Additionally, due to what seems to be negative kurtosis and positive skewness from the distribution, more samples are in order. A lot more.

[Bohab]

Originally Posted by Writ3r [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

what does suck is charm break mid DDoS when you are left defenseless, that is more unlucky than anything

Especially when it's an essence harvester...