Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by Jimjam [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I don’t think FSI is about mitigation anyway - opposite to you I’m a little surprised the calculated average benefit is so high. My perception of FSI value is the benefit it provides at the extreme end of the normal - where that bash stun initiates a sequence of catastrophic failure. Obviously, by definition, that is more of a fringe occurrence, but for someone who is failure adverse (perhaps they like to kill rare, highly competed mobs - something OP wonders whether lacking JBB may make a difference) that may be a decisive benefit. For me, someone who likes to deal with the spice of things going a bit pete tong from time to time it’s not very enticing.

Oh, I agree absolutely. FSI shows its value when shit hits the fan. "Initiates a sequence of catastrophic failure" - this is exactly why I bring up Markov Chains. With that sort of analysis you can encode the state of the fight, including what spells have landed and how much damage you have taken. For example, the state at the start of the fight will be full hp; no debuffs. The two possible next states will be Malo landed; Malo failed to land. You give each state transition a probability, perhaps 85% and 15%. This lets you build out the full state space of a fight. Some parts of the chain can contain loops, like Casting Slow -> Slow failed to land -> Casting Slow.

The value of FSI is that it changes the probabilities of those state transitions, making it less likely you end up in the state of low health, slow failed to land. Markov Chain analysis was invented for precisely these types of problems, and the wikipedia article is at least somewhat intelligible: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_chain#Transitions

I'm not willing to put in that much effort for this topic, and so went with a simplified analysis. But you correctly pointed out the "wiggle room" I was talking about; DSM I think intuitively understand the objection as well, but unfortunately he is unable to articulate it, which is why he's now talking about wizard nukes. I think the next area of improvement would be to replace the DPS number with a distribution, which lets us recognize that sometimes over a short interval a mob will do drastically more than average damage and sometimes drastically less. If, for example, we can say that 5% of the time a mob hits you for 400 damage, we can further refine the range out outcomes, and better quantify the probability that a fight turns so poor that one is forced to abandon the effort and gate out.

Unfortunately, as a filthy casual who's never leveled past 51, and never played a tank at all, I simply don't have the logs or intuitive understanding to build that probability distribution, and so I must rely on the DPS number that was provided to me. But if anyone else is interested in that analysis, I remain willing, even eager, to collaborate.

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Do you work in higher education (undergrad, masters or doctoral level)? You carry yourself like a seasoned professor that is perhaps overly patient.

I greatly appreciate the kind words. My pedagogy has been developed through three activities - coaching novices in powerlifting, teaching the basics of tree identification on nature walks, and at work, where as a principal engineer, I spend a great deal of time mentoring junior engineers, some of whom have been quite dense.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

DSM I think intuitively understand the objection as well, but unfortunately he is unable to articulate it, which is why he's now talking about wizard nukes.

As you can see, Bcbrown cannot win the argument with facts and logic. Therefore he must deflect to trying to score points because he disagrees with the format of my posts. He did this earlier by trying to suggest a mathematical proof format would somehow change the discussion in some way.

I prefer to speak in plain terms, because not everybody understands concepts like Markov Chains. Nor do people need to write out Markov chains to describe the benefits of FSI when looking at it from a high level.

You still havent addressed your obvious mistake in comparing averages of different timescales, and seem content to avoid the discussion all together.

[Troxx]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

As you can see, Bcbrown cannot win the argument with facts and logic.

Bcbrown is literally running circles around you cognitively - and is doing so calmly and coherently. It’s like an intellectual cage fight featuring Neil Degrasse Tyson vs a highschool dropout.

Keep on flailing.

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

#WizardNukesTotallyRelevant

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Bcbrown is literally running circles around you cognitively - and is doing so in calmly and coherently. It’s like an intellectual cage fight featuring Neil Degrasse Tyson vs a highschool dropout.

"DeathsSilkyMist is literally running circles around you cognitively - and is doing so in calmly and coherently. It’s like an intellectual cage fight featuring Neil Degrasse Tyson vs a highschool dropout."

There, I type the same thing. We are at an impasse.

Now, back to the actual discussion, where you have handily lost because you have no evidence backing up your position, and have agreed with me on most of my points already. You have also spent most of your time troll posting in an attempt to score points because of how badly you are losing.

For those interested in the truth and the actual discussion: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=311

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

#WizardNukesTotallyRelevant

Yes. Mathematically speaking Wizard Nukes do more DPS in a short time interval, and less DPS over a long time interval. Directly comparing short time interval averages with long time interval averages is nonsensical in this scenario.

FSI operates under the same principle. It's benefit comes from a short time interval, not a long time interval. You cannot compare the long time interval benefits of FSI to the short time interval benefit of Iksar/Troll Regeneration. You would compare likes, which is the short time interval benefit of FSI to the short time interval benefit of Iksar/Troll Regeneration.

[bcbrown]

The far more interesting result is that there's a roughly 3% chance of taking 300+ extra damage in the first 17 seconds of a fight for shamans who lack FSI.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The far more interesting result is that there's a roughly 3% chance of taking 300+ extra damage in the first 17 seconds of a fight for shamans who lack FSI.

Correct. This is why FSI is better for Torpor Shamans. A 3% chance to reduce 300+ extra damage is more useful than a ~0% chance to survive the fight with 24 HP remaining (3 ticks of Iksar/Troll Regeneration), and it is better than saving 1-2 minutes of recovery time per hour on a class that can fully recover in 3 minutes or less. It is the same reason why Torpor Shamans pick Vindi BP over Fungi Tunic. Vindi BP is more likely to reduce a random damage spike, which can save your life.

[bcbrown]

A reasonable opinion, and one that I mostly share, especially for anyone whose endgame gameplay is mostly soloing.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

A reasonable opinion, and one that I mostly share

I appreciate that you generally agree. Unlike the opinions of someone like Troxx, I have backed up my conclusions with evidence, facts, math, and logic. This elevates it above a simple opinion.

Trying to reduce all conversations down to equal opinions in an attempt to throw out all evidence, facts, math, and logic is simply an underhanded debate tactic, and you are doing a disservice to yourself by continuing to do this.

[Troxx]

If 300 extra damage (which we are calculating as a 3% probability chance) is not something you are capable of handling at the start of the fight, perhaps you should improve your gameplay. Nobody has stated that the possibility for the perfect storm doesn’t exist or that FSI has no value.

My stance has always been and remains that you overestimate and place too much emphasis on its actual value.

Coincidentally my shaman has 338hp less than your shaman, over 500 less mana and about 275 less ac than your shaman. See the magelo below. Weirdly, despite having this massive gear based handicap I have not struggled with any of these encounters.

Maybe I’m just better at playing shaman? I don’t happen to think I am particularly talented with the class compared to most dedicated shaman mains.

Maybe the likelihood we are assuming to be 3% is actually lower and therefore I have never once experienced it … and that few if any ever statistically would?

Food for thought.

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Jolav

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Shamwowi

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If 300 extra damage (which we are calculating as a 3% probability chance) is not something you are capable of handling at the start of the fight, perhaps you should improve your gameplay. Nobody has stated that the possibility for the perfect storm doesn’t exist or that FSI has no value.

My stance has always been and remains that you overestimate and place too much emphasis on its actual value.

Coincidentally my shaman has 338hp less than your shaman, over 500 less mana and about 275 less ac than your shaman. See the magelo below. Weirdly, despite having this massive gear based handicap I have not struggled with any of these encounters.

Maybe I’m just better at playing shaman? I don’t happen to think I am particularly talented with the class compared to most dedicated shaman mains.

Maybe the likelihood we are assuming to be 3% is actually lower and therefore I have never once experienced it … and that few if any ever statistically would?

Food for thought.

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Jolav

https://wiki.project1999.com/Magelo_Blue:Shamwowi

You are just going back to the same "racials aren't necessary" point, which everybody agrees with and has never been contested in this thread by anybody that I am aware of. I have never contested this point either.

You are also trying to score points with the "you are a bad player" nonsense. This isn't a valid argument, and I didn't say I needed FSI to win fights.

You are desperately trying to avoid the simple fact that Shaman racials being unecessary is irrelevant to which one is objectively the best out of the set of racials a Shaman can have. You can objectively determine which racial is best, and also agree that no racial is necessary for a Shaman. These are not mutually exclusive.

If you want to claim that Iksar/Troll Regeneration is objectively better than FSI, you need to provide more than silly gifs, insults, fallacious arguments, and fake medical diagnoses.