Raiding on Project 1999

[Jify]

Originally Posted by Dabamf [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The odds are 100%, because it happened.

Variance has been in a while. This is the first time IIRC that so many raid targets spawned at similar times. Welcome to random number generators.

To the OP, I live in Asia and play completely opposite times as the USA, and I feel like every spawn is always while I'm at work. How could we have completely opposite experiences? It's basic psychology that outliers stick out in our mind more than commonalities, and the result is we mistakenly rely on our memories to draw patterns, which results in skewed perceptions of chance events.

The variance system is the best system we could have. Raid spawns are unpredictable, practically uncampable, and could happen at 9pm EST when 600 people are on or at 5am when 200 are. It's as fair as it possibly could be.

+1

I get many text messages while at work, or sleeping, etc. IB doesn't have 15 people in every time zone. It has hardcore group of members that will log in at any time to raid. There are no cheats, no hacks, no exploits, etc(not saying that you said there was). There is only determination and effort, of which IB puts in LOTS.

[Gwence]

We definitely dont have enough members to cover every time zone. In fact divinity has way more members than IB.

[TheDudeAbides]

The variance system is the best system we could have. Raid spawns are unpredictable, practically uncampable, and could happen at 9pm EST when 600 people are on or at 5am when 200 are. It's as fair as it possibly could be.

Raid mobs are currently being camped

[yaaaflow]

Originally Posted by Samuel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

...What are the odds that these mobs respawn in this type of sequential order?

Originally Posted by Dabamf

The odds are 100%, because it happened.

To clear this up, the odds are actually 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn't.

[Tsuken]

I would propose to have the spawn variance removed again, because it's not classic and it's not fun. Instead I would like to see something organized on the forums, so guilds will know in advance which target they're gonna get and when he will spawn. I think that's how it was organized on my server.

[Webwolf]

I say put the mobs on their original timers, take the GMs out the picture and let it be FFA. Let the strongest win. You guys are a bunch of wussies.

[Dabamf]

Originally Posted by yaaaflow [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

To clear this up, the odds are actually 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn't.

Incorrect sir. After-the-fact odds are either 0 or 1 (it didn't happen, or it did), and before the fact odds for 4 raid mobs to spawn within a couple hours are quite significantly less than 50%, certainly under 10%. The point of my post earlier was that a rare event happening is not evidence against the event being rare.

But the nature of random events dictates that events that are highly unlikely in a single circumstance become extremely likely to occur at some point over time. And this is what happened here.

Anyway, OP is just another "I'm not happy with the raid targets we're getting, therefore the rules are unfair" post, just like the 12 we've had before.

[Uaellaen]

well i have to agree with the OP that it is kinda odd that they ALL spawned within a 5 hour window, when they all have been killed on saturday within a 2 hour window ... so every mob only poped almost exactly after 6 days ... wich is indeed a weird coincidence ...

given that they CAN spawn within a 96 hour window after 5 days, all of them spawned 5 days + 26 ~29 hours ... the odds of /ran 5760 (possible spawn each minute) or /ran 345600 (possible spawn each second) to all be within the same segment should be near to impossible ...

so maybe the spawn variation is not "variating" enought, and needs to be looked into ...

But the nature of random events dictates that events that are highly unlikely in a single circumstance become extremely likely to occur at some point over time. And this is what happened here.

yeah .. over time ... but this here is not over time .. they ALL been killed within a certain window of each others, and basicly also respawned within almost the exact same window ... of course it is entierly possible that this is coincidence, but highly unlikley ...

your statement is true if the mobs are killed within a large variation of time ... wich makes it more likley that at some point they may cross spawn times again ... but the closer the mobs are killed after each others, the more unlikley it is that on a random event they will all repop in roughly the same window again ...

[yaaaflow]

Nah you guys are making the odds sound way too complex yo, it either happens or it doesn't, 50/50.

[anthony210]

Originally Posted by Dabamf [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Incorrect sir. After-the-fact odds are either 0 or 1 (it didn't happen, or it did), and before the fact odds for 4 raid mobs to spawn within a couple hours are quite significantly less than 50%, certainly under 10%. The point of my post earlier was that a rare event happening is not evidence against the event being rare.

But the nature of random events dictates that events that are highly unlikely in a single circumstance become extremely likely to occur at some point over time. And this is what happened here.

Anyway, OP is just another "I'm not happy with the raid targets we're getting, therefore the rules are unfair" post, just like the 12 we've had before.

This has nothing to do with the rules. Yes of course I am unhappy that I get to kill 1 raid target a month because they always seem to spawn when I cannot get online.

My issue is with the spawn variance not working properly, not with IB and not with the raid rules.