How far are we from AI recreating EQ99?

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by BradZax [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Yeah i agree, but that was FACEBOOKs bet, not "every company in the world"

Not: every hardware manufacturer, and every technology investor.

WAY more investors did not invest in metaverse, than did.

More people have left the VR space than entered it in the time that meta was investing heavily in their vision for the future of their own company.

More investment does not equate to more smart people knowing the future. I brought up VR because multiple technologies in recent times have had this pattern:

1. A leap in the technology
2. A mass investment into the technology to be the first company to corner the market
3. Pleateau

Cryptocurrency is another technology that did this. Bitcoin came out in 2009, and it is still just a speculative market. You don't see a mass adoption of cryptocurrency as a primary method of payment.

[OriginalContentGuy]

You're right, I'm not. But name me one large organization whose leaders don't write down their instructions or procedures so that they may be read by the company and executed according to specific directions. I read the notes of the guys to whom you are referring to inform my speculation and not just the public relations releases.

Edit: I replied to an edited draft by Exlax suggesting I can't got perspectives based on the same models any CEO uses and perhaps then some

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by OriginalContentGuy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You're right, I'm not. But name me one large organization whose leaders don't write down their instructions or procedures so that they may be read by the company and executed according to specific directions. I read the notes of the guys to whom you are referring to inform my speculation and not just the public relations releases.

Are you asking me to name one company that doesn't publically send out all of its business strategies, emails, and meeting recordings to social media readers?

Ok:

All of them.

I just named at least one there.

[OriginalContentGuy]

No and based on your history I don't believe your misunderstanding wasn't intentional.

Sorry exlax I'm busy later maybe.

I think I can dumb down what I said so it would make more sense to you specifically, I expect. And to everyone, but I'm working I was just on break.

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by OriginalContentGuy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No and based on your history I don't believe your misunderstanding wasn't intentional.

Sorry exlax I'm busy later maybe.

I think I can dumb down what I said so it would make more sense to you specifically, I expect. And to everyone, but I'm working I was just on break.

I think what you are saying is:

Everyone who is rich is dumb and everything they build is fake.

Im simply saying that I don't believe they would spend trillions of dollars on something that produces no revenue.

That the people who literally built the current economy shifted to decide, "you know what that clippy app was actually really on to something"

[OriginalContentGuy]

I still don't believe you are arguing in good faith. Not everyone does.

If we are going to discuss revenue then we must discuss money. Is this correct? If so, then by the same reasoning, If we are to discuss money, then we must discuss energy.

Do you accept this as accurate?

If not, then neither can I assist you presently, nor do I know or care if thar's what you want to happen.

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by loramin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Right, before the LLMs we have today were impossible (with a reasonable amount of processing power). Innovation changed that and we got LLMs.

It's like with airplanes, you didn't go from leaving the ground to circumnavigating the globe: it took many separate inventions.

But, there were periods, often many years, between those inventions. When the Wright brothers first flew, some people were like "I'll be flying to China tomorrow!". Those people were very wrong.

AI will get better, no doubt, but no one can predict innovation timelines.

Sure, but I am not predicting that timeline.

Im arguing that trillions of dollars being invested into a timeline that has no predictability wouldn't make sense unless everyone in the world went mad at the same time.

It took the airplane industry 50 years to go from paper and wood to nuclear intercontinental space traveling rockets.

People worked on flight for melinia, and then after someone figures out lift, suddenly we're riding on busses in the sky.

It's hard to predict where we'll be in the near future, but one thing is for sure the same people that told me that AI was going to crush human creativity and I was evil for supporting it, are now the same ones saying that we're stupid for thinking AI has a lot of untapped potential.

And without some new invention, AI will never make EQ

This is objectively false though. More power would allow modern technology to do this.

Unless you're going to make arguments like, a new invention is a new way to put transistors onto a computer chip, or building a space fairing data center.

[loramin]

Originally Posted by BradZax [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This is objectively false though. More power would allow modern technology to do this.

Unless you're going to make arguments like, a new invention is a new way to put transistors onto a computer chip, or building a space fairing data center.

No, you're still not understanding. Let's say you pay someone to level your toon. Each new level takes more time, so it costs more money. Up to 20 you can pay them for a level a day, but after that they take multiple days to level.

You can get a new job that pays more, and then you can afford to pay for faster leveling. This is current AI.

But now you want a live toon instead, max level, with all AAs. It doesn't matter if you pay your player more, they still can't get you a level 100 with all AAs. It doesn't matter how much money your player gets, he can only play so many hours a day (and at some point he gets sick and quits).

That's getting an AI to make something like EQ. Throw the very best models at it, give them their own personal nuclear reactor even ... they still won't be able to do it. New tech is required, not just better-powered existing tech.

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by loramin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No, you're still not understanding. Let's say you pay someone to level your toon. Each new level takes more time, so it costs more money. Up to 20 you can pay them for a level a day, but after that they take multiple days to level.

You can get a new job that pays more, and then you can afford to pay for faster leveling. This is current AI.

But now you want a live toon instead, max level, with all AAs. It doesn't matter if you pay your player more, they still can't get you a level 100 with all AAs. It doesn't matter how much money your player gets, he can only play so many hours a day.

That's getting an AI to make something like EQ. Throw the very best models at it, give them their own personal nuclear reactor even ... they still won't be able to do it. New tech is required, not just better-powered existing tech.

Right now you can generate an image on google gemni, it uses recursive learning and LLM models.

You can also generate an image on one of their diffusion models, these do not use recursive learning or LLM models.

The recursive memory generation costs 10$ a second of wattage to generate.

The problem isn't "this is as much wattage as technology allows us to pipe into it"

It's that, "currently it costs 10$ to generate that much wattage."

So, they don't allow users to use the full version of their LLMs or they would go bankrupt in processing costs.

Every question, causes the LLM to turn on compactors that need to be cooled.

It could turn on more compactors now, but they don't have the power to cool them.

If overnight we built enough pwerplants to generate enough power so that it costs 10 cents to generate 1 second of video, you would see massive improvements in LLM results that you thought were impossible, overnight.

The new version of chat GPT and shit, thats trying to do MORE with less. Optimizing their limited model to function as efficiently as it can with current power limitations.

But the thing they are investing in, is capable doing more, with MORE!

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by BradZax [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Right now you can generate an image on google gemni, it uses recursive learning and LLM models.

You can also generate an image on one of their diffusion models, these do not use recursive learning or LLM models.

The recursive memory generation costs 10$ a second of wattage to generate.

The problem isn't "this is as much wattage as technology allows us to pipe into it"

It's that, "currently it costs 10$ to generate that much wattage."

So, they don't allow users to use the full version of their LLMs or they would go bankrupt in processing costs.

Every question, causes the LLM to turn on compactors that need to be cooled.

It could turn on more compactors now, but they don't have the power to cool them.

If overnight we built enough pwerplants to generate enough power so that it costs 10 cents to generate 1 second of video, you would see massive improvements in LLM results that you thought were impossible, overnight.

The new version of chat GPT and shit, thats trying to do MORE with less. Optimizing their limited model to function as efficiently as it can with current power limitations.

But the thing they are investing in, is capable doing more, with MORE!

Let's run with your idea for a moment. If we built 100x the datacenters overnight, genie 3 still wouldn't be able to make Everquest. The tech just doesn't work in a way that is condusive to persistent online worlds with thousands of players. Maybe genie 3 with 100x datacenters would allow you to play a basic singleplayer game for a few hours.