FBSS rarity?

[Messianic]

Originally Posted by BobSmith [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Thanks Droodler. I understand now.

I checked the latest EQEMU database. The frenzied ghould has a 1 in 10 chance to spawn, and each frenzied ghoul has a 1 in 5 chance to drop an FBSS. I realize this may be very different from P99, but it might be useful as an initial assumption.

Do you have the exact percentage amounts? When you start piling probabilities, it can make a good bit of difference.

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by BobSmith [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Thanks Droodler. I understand now.

I checked the latest EQEMU database. The frenzied ghould has a 1 in 10 chance to spawn, and each frenzied ghoul has a 1 in 5 chance to drop an FBSS. I realize this may be very different from P99, but it might be useful as an initial assumption.

If this is accurate for p99, then I did indeed get pretty darn unlucky. 20% chance to drop a fbss means that there was only about a 16% chance that I shouldn't have seen it at least once from 8 frenzied ghouls. And then there is the fact that I saw slightly fewer frenzied ghouls than the average.

Edit - again, assuming those numbers are accurate for p99, I think the average-ish time someone would have to spend at frenzy to get an fbss would only be about 6-7 hours.

[BobSmith]

So if the rates in the EQEMU db are the same as P99, then there is a 1 in 50 chance for each spawn to be a frenzied ghoul with an FBSS. If you kill 6 spawns per hour, then you'd kill 60 in 10 hours. There would be about a 70 percent chance that at least one spawn out of those sixty would result in an FBSS.

At that rate, there is about an 88 percent chance that killing 107 spawns would result in at least one FBSS.

So, either you got unlucky, or the drop rate is lower on P99 than EQEMU.

[Droodler]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And re: all the charts, why would you take the time to put all that up there based on an assumption that you had no foundation for? Or did you actually have a reason to believe that 1 FBSS drop per 10 hours at frenzy is about average, and I just missed it?

There's an entire field of statistics that deals with these sorts of problems. I just applied it to your question.

Using BobSmith's 1/50 drop rate, here are the recalculated statistics (no time for graphs right now)

Expected drop rate: 1.24%

It's making the most with the least amount of data. Sorry I couldn't magically create data for you.

And yes, you did get unlucky. I did a G test for goodness of fit of the 1/50 chance, and the p-value was 0.1398.

Edit: Based on your results, the FBSS rate is not significantly different than 1/50. With more data, it may be. You didn't get significantly unlucky

[Bubbles]

Between me and a buddy - 63 hours without a sash.

It's probably still the server record.

God i hate that f'n camp.

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by Droodler [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

There's an entire field of statistics that deals with these sorts of problems. I just applied it to your question.

Your "application" of statistics to my question was about as useful as some random scientist taking an hour to explain the inner workings of gravity to someone who asked "How much does this rock weigh?"

Just as the person with the rock would have been better served if the scientist had said "I don't know; I don't have a scale handy with which to weigh the rock," I would have been better served if you had not said anything at all [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Originally Posted by Droodler [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And yes, you did get unlucky. I did a G test for goodness of fit of the 1/50 chance, and the p-value was 0.1398.

Edit: Based on your results, the FBSS rate is not significantly different than 1/50. With more data, it may be. You didn't get significantly unlucky

If 86 out of 100 people would have gotten an fbss where I did not, how can you say that isn't significant?

[BobSmith]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If 86 out of 100 people would have gotten an fbss where I did not, how can you say that isn't significant?

I think he just means that, given the odds, your result was unlikely, but not highly unlikely.

If we have the odds right, then you had approximately a 1 in 6 chance to come away with nothing. An unlucky outcome, but not a rarity.

[BobSmith]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Your "application" of statistics to my question was about as useful as some random scientist taking an hour to explain the inner workings of gravity to someone who asked "How much does this rock weigh?"

No, it was useful and in fact answered your question, you just did not understand.

Your original question was:

Originally Posted by fischsemmel

I was at frenzy for 18 hours yesterday. Killed 101 bloodthirsty ghouls and 8 frenzied ghouls, but didn't see a sash.

Is that averageish? Somewhat unlucky? Or what?

In Droodler's conclusion he states:

Originally Posted by Droodler

Based on your results, the FBSS rate is not significantly different than 1/50. ... You didn't get significantly unlucky

But to be fair, I did not understand most of what he said in his first post, and I don't expect that most people would.

[Krimsin]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Please point me to which one of these, exactly, gave me a ballpark figure for how long it takes to get an fbss drop at frenzy. And remember, people pulling arbitrary numbers out of thin air does not give us anything useful.

Why do you care? If you want an FBSS get on and farm it.

What do statistics get you other than a chance to gripe about how "unlucky" you are?

KILL MOAR FRENZIES!!

/therad

[guineapig]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Your "application" of statistics to my question was about as useful as some random scientist taking an hour to explain the inner workings of gravity to someone who asked "How much does this rock weigh?"

Just as the person with the rock would have been better served if the scientist had said "I don't know; I don't have a scale handy with which to weigh the rock," I would have been better served if you had not said anything at all

You seem rather ungrateful when people are trying to help you.
I'm just saying...