2020 Election MEGAthread - Page 224

BarnabusCollins · #1 10-29-2020, 11:18 PM

Trump wins in a close race to 270 and the snowflakes melt.

Danth · #2 10-29-2020, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlackBellamy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

We have people in Japan! Hey, why aren't your old people dying? (of covid I mean).

Beats me! I was simply tossing out a hypothesis that may account for some other nations. Wasn't trying to be all-inclusive. It's a big world, there'll be a lot of factors in play. Japan probably cares for its elderly better than the U.S. does, though. I do not highly regard nursing home care in the United States to put it mildly.

hobart · #3 10-29-2020, 11:38 PM

Can someone tell me why the liberal fake news lame stream media is lying to me and telling me Biden is winning when he really isn't?

Shouldn't they be telling me it's close so I don't decide to skip the polls and attend a #BLM rally instead?

Topgunben · #4 10-30-2020, 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hobart [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Can someone tell me why the liberal fake news lame stream media is lying to me and telling me Biden is winning when he really isn't?

Shouldn't they be telling me it's close so I don't decide to skip the polls and attend a #BLM rally instead?

Hobart. Even though I think you are a disgusting, oxygen-thief loser, I am genuinely curious on your take as to how you think Biden will make America a better place?

douglas1999 · #5 10-30-2020, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hobart [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Can someone tell me why the liberal fake news lame stream media is lying to me and telling me Biden is winning when he really isn't?

Shouldn't they be telling me it's close so I don't decide to skip the polls and attend a #BLM rally instead?

Because they are partisan. Fox does the same thing, saying that trump is totally gonna win. You have a disturbing confidence in what you are being told by the people you already agree with and want to like. It's not a zero-sum question of "say good thing or bad thing"; some potential voters will be complacent and not vote because they are assured their guy is doing good, others will be demoralized and not vote because they are told their guy is doing bad or that it's "close". The various media outlets will always back their guy, they are literally paid to. Or you can watch c-span, which is boring as shit and also about a billion times more accurate.

hobart · #6 10-30-2020, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by douglas1999 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You have a disturbing confidence in what you are being told by the people you already agree with and want to like.

I'm only replying to you, but it would be the same to the 2-3 others here posting about polls.

I've consistently said Trump has +2 in his back pocket -- that's a 4 point shift. Nate Silver, the Lincoln Project, and several other sources discount the "shy trump voter", but I think it's a real thing until they call NC and FL for Biden 10 minutes out of the gate.

TLP is the closest thing to an echo chamber for me. I'm hoping they're right, but I'm not confident in what they are telling me.

The most reasonable take-away from FiveThirtyEight is this:

Quote:

Remember, Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the election, per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

Right now the voter turnout looks historically high based on mail-in and early, but who knows what that means during COVID. I also think Trump shook up the modeling here by discrediting mail-in voting to the point that it might motivate chunks from both sides to do the opposite of what they normally would have done.

I want Trump to lose. Think Biden will win a close one electorally. Won't be surprised if Trump wins.

Patriam1066 · #7 10-29-2020, 11:39 PM

I take your point Hobart, but to be fair they did the same shit in 2016

I’m guessing the Trumpian answer is that the media is based out of DC and NYC amd doesn’t have the pulse of “real America,” which is a land of obese diabetics who’d rather kill each other than wear masks

imperiouskitten · #8 10-30-2020, 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patriam1066 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I take your point Hobart, but to be fair they did the same shit in 2016

I’m guessing the Trumpian answer is that the media is based out of DC and NYC amd doesn’t have the pulse of “real America,” which is a land of obese diabetics who’d rather kill each other than wear masks

that's not the Trumpian answer tho, it's the correct one. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Trump's going to clean up in TX and FL, i swear to you. I find it hard to believe even oregon will go blue. we are living through a horrific sea change in American "values". the people are loosed cannibals bro, they have lost all of their Aztec worship for the heart-eating establishment that used to opiate them with brown head basketball and unlike you have no regard even for their own families, which in most cases are shattered or contain an obese wife.

BlackBellamy · #9 10-30-2020, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imperiouskitten [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

that's not the Trumpian answer tho, it's the correct one. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I disagree. I believe the poll numbers are being precisely manipulated in order to provide the correct amount of motivation for the supporting voters.

I'm thinking the thought process is looking something like this:

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Quote:

We are all people of low ethical standards and we expect jobs in the Biden administration and also we run polling companies!