Raiding on Project 1999

[anthony210]

Originally Posted by Droxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If one guild can mobilize at odd hours, why can't you?

Because every guild doesnt have enough members to cover every time zone. What can I do to compete if I get a text message while at work that a mob spawns? I cant do anything about it. That is not competition, that is in fact lack of competition since it seems only one guild has enough players to cover every time zone.

If competition is what everyone desires that a random spawn would be no problem at all. Everyone has their fair shot at something spawning in their respective time zones. That would be competition.

Right now you have the bosses spawning at wierd times and only 1 guild able to field a raid force to kill them. Where is the competition in that?

[Samuel]

Not completely on topic, but...

Today Vox spawned at 7am est, then Inny a couple hours later and then CT a couple hours later (the OP says Naggy too, wasn't aware).

If these four targets are on a +/- 48 hours variance as stated here...

"Spawn Variance

A variance of +/- 48 hours will be added to the following: Lord Nagafen, Lady Vox, Cazic-Thule, Innoruuk.
A variance of +/- 24 hours will be added to the following: Dracoliche, Maestro of Rancor.
*Phinigel will remain a static 12 hour spawn."

...What are the odds that these mobs respawn in this type of sequential order?

[anthony210]

3 major raid bosses spawned within 5 hours of eachother. Vox spawned at aroud 6am CST, Naggy spawned at around 7am CST, followed by CT at 12pm or so CST.

Im not sure about Inny but I think he spawned sometime in their as well.

Massive coincidence I guess...

And yes the spawn times are a problem when they ALL happen in one time zone. It prevents the other time zones from getting a fair shot at the mobs.

[Dabamf]

Originally Posted by Samuel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Not completely on topic, but...

Today Vox spawned at 7am est, then Inny a couple hours later and then CT a couple hours later (the OP says Naggy too, wasn't aware).

If these four targets are on a +/- 48 hours variance as stated here...

"Spawn Variance

A variance of +/- 48 hours will be added to the following: Lord Nagafen, Lady Vox, Cazic-Thule, Innoruuk.
A variance of +/- 24 hours will be added to the following: Dracoliche, Maestro of Rancor.
*Phinigel will remain a static 12 hour spawn."

...What are the odds that these mobs respawn in this type of sequential order?

The odds are 100%, because it happened.

Variance has been in a while. This is the first time IIRC that so many raid targets spawned at similar times. Welcome to random number generators.

To the OP, I live in Asia and play completely opposite times as the USA, and I feel like every spawn is always while I'm at work. How could we have completely opposite experiences? It's basic psychology that outliers stick out in our mind more than commonalities, and the result is we mistakenly rely on our memories to draw patterns, which results in skewed perceptions of chance events.

The variance system is the best system we could have. Raid spawns are unpredictable, practically uncampable, and could happen at 9pm EST when 600 people are on or at 5am when 200 are. It's as fair as it possibly could be.

[Jify]

Originally Posted by Dabamf [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The odds are 100%, because it happened.

Variance has been in a while. This is the first time IIRC that so many raid targets spawned at similar times. Welcome to random number generators.

To the OP, I live in Asia and play completely opposite times as the USA, and I feel like every spawn is always while I'm at work. How could we have completely opposite experiences? It's basic psychology that outliers stick out in our mind more than commonalities, and the result is we mistakenly rely on our memories to draw patterns, which results in skewed perceptions of chance events.

The variance system is the best system we could have. Raid spawns are unpredictable, practically uncampable, and could happen at 9pm EST when 600 people are on or at 5am when 200 are. It's as fair as it possibly could be.

+1

I get many text messages while at work, or sleeping, etc. IB doesn't have 15 people in every time zone. It has hardcore group of members that will log in at any time to raid. There are no cheats, no hacks, no exploits, etc(not saying that you said there was). There is only determination and effort, of which IB puts in LOTS.

[Gwence]

We definitely dont have enough members to cover every time zone. In fact divinity has way more members than IB.

[yaaaflow]

Originally Posted by Samuel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

...What are the odds that these mobs respawn in this type of sequential order?

Originally Posted by Dabamf

The odds are 100%, because it happened.

To clear this up, the odds are actually 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn't.

[Dabamf]

Originally Posted by yaaaflow [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

To clear this up, the odds are actually 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn't.

Incorrect sir. After-the-fact odds are either 0 or 1 (it didn't happen, or it did), and before the fact odds for 4 raid mobs to spawn within a couple hours are quite significantly less than 50%, certainly under 10%. The point of my post earlier was that a rare event happening is not evidence against the event being rare.

But the nature of random events dictates that events that are highly unlikely in a single circumstance become extremely likely to occur at some point over time. And this is what happened here.

Anyway, OP is just another "I'm not happy with the raid targets we're getting, therefore the rules are unfair" post, just like the 12 we've had before.

[anthony210]

Originally Posted by Dabamf [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Incorrect sir. After-the-fact odds are either 0 or 1 (it didn't happen, or it did), and before the fact odds for 4 raid mobs to spawn within a couple hours are quite significantly less than 50%, certainly under 10%. The point of my post earlier was that a rare event happening is not evidence against the event being rare.

But the nature of random events dictates that events that are highly unlikely in a single circumstance become extremely likely to occur at some point over time. And this is what happened here.

Anyway, OP is just another "I'm not happy with the raid targets we're getting, therefore the rules are unfair" post, just like the 12 we've had before.

This has nothing to do with the rules. Yes of course I am unhappy that I get to kill 1 raid target a month because they always seem to spawn when I cannot get online.

My issue is with the spawn variance not working properly, not with IB and not with the raid rules.

[Droxx]

Originally Posted by Jinsho

every guild doesnt have enough members

Then this isn't a problem with the variance.