How far are we from AI recreating EQ99?

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by BradZax [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I think we're just waiting on more power. For example. Google image creation with Gemini using context costs about 3-5$ in wattage to generate a 6-10 second video. Vs their diffusion model for video generation is more like 5 cents or less.

That doesn't mean anything except it just gives you an idea about how much wattage context adds to the equation!

I am hoping corporations using their own nuclear reactors will be give us a big jump in usage.

https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/o...-nuclear-push/

Personally I do not think the current implementation of LLM's will ever have enough of a context window to play a 40 hour game while maintaining the state of the game. Nor will it give us artifical general intelligence.

We need to wait for a company to come out with a different approach to AI.

[BradZax]

Personally, I do not think these guys would be investing trillions in a glorified clippy app.

If they were doing it because the subscription model made sense, nvidia would still be selling personal computers instead of swapping to some kind of Death Star customers only model.

My guess is they have seen what it's actually capable of if they had:

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[loramin]

Originally Posted by BradZax [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I think we're just waiting on more power. For example. Google image creation with Gemini using context costs about 3-5$ in wattage to generate a 6-10 second video. Vs their diffusion model for video generation is more like 5 cents or less.

That doesn't mean anything except it just gives you an idea about how much wattage context adds to the equation!

I am hoping corporations using their own nuclear reactors will be give us a big jump in usage.

https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/o...-nuclear-push/

Well power is certainly a factor, but there's something more fundamental to the tech.

You have to understand "AI' is just math. Everything you tell the AI (ie. all context) becomes part of its calculation. There are fundamental limits to how much context it can process. Throwing more processing power (which requires electrical power) can increase the "context window" some, but only so far.

It's a diminishing returns thing with how the math works: the thousandth context token takes more power than the first, and the ten thousandth takes way more, and so on ... much like how level 60 requires way more effort than level 1.

You might pay a neighborhood kid to level to 2, but it will cost wayyyy more (more than 60x) to pay him to get to 60. Even if you inherit $100 more, it probably won't get you to 60.

[OriginalContentGuy]

Originally Posted by BradZax [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Personally, I do not think these guys would be investing trillions in a glorified clippy app.

I do. It's not that simple but economic flywheels are a concept if you insist on modeling an economy as an electronic circuit.

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by loramin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Well power is certainly a factor, but there's something more fundamental to the tech.

You have to understand "AI' is just math. Everything you tell the AI (ie. all context) becomes part of its calculation. There are fundamental limits to how much context it can process. Throwing more processing power (which requires electrical power) can increase the "context window" some, but only so far.

It's a diminishing returns thing with how the math works: the thousandth context token takes more power than the first, and the ten thousandth takes way more, and so on ... much like how level 60 requires way more effort than level 1.

You might pay a neighborhood kid to level to 2, but it will cost wayyyy more (more than 60x) to pay him to get to 60. Even if you inherit $100 more, it probably won't get you to 60.

5 years ago you could have said the exact same thing about LLMs just not being mathematically possible to get to the level they were 3 years ago.

We're handicapped right now not with how much power it can use, or how much power it can process etc.

We're handicapped with:

It wants more power, it can use more power, but that power is just too expensive to be worth it commercially right now.

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by OriginalContentGuy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I do.

The economy isn't just some funny meme that reddit made everyone think it is.

These guys know what they are doing.

The CEO of Nvidia didn't get into component engineering 50 years ago so he could sell snake oil when he was old and rich enough to be retired.

Nor did he start it to be some megalomaniac tech super villian, because we have 50 years of him proving building quality computer components makes him and gaming the world happy.

[OriginalContentGuy]

You're right, I'm not. But name me one large organization whose leaders don't write down their instructions or procedures so that they may be read by the company and executed according to specific directions. I read the notes of the guys to whom you are referring to inform my speculation and not just the public relations releases.

Edit: I replied to an edited draft by Exlax suggesting I can't got perspectives based on the same models any CEO uses and perhaps then some

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by OriginalContentGuy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You're right, I'm not. But name me one large organization whose leaders don't write down their instructions or procedures so that they may be read by the company and executed according to specific directions. I read the notes of the guys to whom you are referring to inform my speculation and not just the public relations releases.

Are you asking me to name one company that doesn't publically send out all of its business strategies, emails, and meeting recordings to social media readers?

Ok:

All of them.

I just named at least one there.

[OriginalContentGuy]

No and based on your history I don't believe your misunderstanding wasn't intentional.

Sorry exlax I'm busy later maybe.

I think I can dumb down what I said so it would make more sense to you specifically, I expect. And to everyone, but I'm working I was just on break.

[BradZax]

Originally Posted by OriginalContentGuy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No and based on your history I don't believe your misunderstanding wasn't intentional.

Sorry exlax I'm busy later maybe.

I think I can dumb down what I said so it would make more sense to you specifically, I expect. And to everyone, but I'm working I was just on break.

I think what you are saying is:

Everyone who is rich is dumb and everything they build is fake.

Im simply saying that I don't believe they would spend trillions of dollars on something that produces no revenue.

That the people who literally built the current economy shifted to decide, "you know what that clippy app was actually really on to something"