What's your "I have the worst luck" EQ moment(s)?

[Goregasmic]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

See, this is what you did wrong. This is the gambler's fallacy. Your previous attempts do not bear any influence over the current attempt. It's always the same flat success rate.

I'm not great at statistics so correct me if I'm wrong but if you have a 40% fail rate there's a point where the odds of failing over X number of times in a row become pretty much statistically insignificant. It is not impossible but the probability is very low. The gamblers fallacy comes in when you believe the results of previous rolls impact the results of the next one, which is wrong but probabilities are still a thing.

So in essence, at 165 tailoring you have about 40% chance to fail. The probabilities would be that you'd have 1% chance to fail 5 combines so if you farm enough stuff for 5 combines it is pretty fair to expect one of them will work out even though it isn't impossible it doesn't.

I ended up getting my shawl on the 7th try so you could say I'm in the 1% club [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[cd288]

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm not great at statistics so correct me if I'm wrong but if you have a 40% fail rate there's a point where the odds of failing over X number of times in a row become pretty much statistically insignificant. It is not impossible but the probability is very low. The gamblers fallacy comes in when you believe the results of previous rolls impact the results of the next one, which is wrong but probabilities are still a thing.

So in essence, at 165 tailoring you have about 40% chance to fail. The probabilities would be that you'd have 1% chance to fail 5 combines so if you farm enough stuff for 5 combines it is pretty fair to expect one of them will work out even though it isn't impossible it doesn't.

I ended up getting my shawl on the 7th try so you could say I'm in the 1% club [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You are correct. Probability calculations are a very different thing from the gambler's fallacy.

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm not great at statistics so correct me if I'm wrong but if you have a 40% fail rate there's a point where the odds of failing over X number of times in a row become pretty much statistically insignificant. It is not impossible but the probability is very low. The gamblers fallacy comes in when you believe the results of previous rolls impact the results of the next one, which is wrong but probabilities are still a thing.

So in essence, at 165 tailoring you have about 40% chance to fail. The probabilities would be that you'd have 1% chance to fail 5 combines so if you farm enough stuff for 5 combines it is pretty fair to expect one of them will work out even though it isn't impossible it doesn't.

I ended up getting my shawl on the 7th try so you could say I'm in the 1% club [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This sample size is no where near what's required to assume the probability is low.

[moozh]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This sample size is no where near what's required to assume the probability is low.

Huh? The % chance of succeeding the combine for a single attempt is ~40%. Probabilities are multiplicative and you can find the % chance associated with failing X attempts based on this.

For one attempt, since the chance of success is 40%, the chance of failure is 60%.

OP decided to queue up five attempts. His chance of failing all five attempts (i.e., not having a single success) is 0.6^5, or 0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6, which is ~0.078%. Pretty close to 1%.

Take for example, another scenario in which his chance of success in one attempt is also 40%, but he queues up 1000 attempts. His chance of success is still 40% on each attempt, but in 1000 attempts there isn’t a 40% chance that he’ll succeed just once. After only a few attempts it becomes less and less probable that he’ll continue to fail every attempt.

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by moozh [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Probabilities are multiplicative

They are not.

This is the gambler's fallacy.

One failure does not increase your chance on success on the next attempt.

Don't spread lies.

[onmove_broke]

Rolled a 0 out of 222 on a T-staff. Spent 8k on a Word for my lv 49 pet and failed

[Old_PVP]

Fails on trivial combines, sometimes a couple fails in a row. Makes me mad every time.

[Ennewi]

Years back, before green server or velious testing, fungi group formed around christmas break with the goal of obtaining 1 tunic per member. Within an hour or two, fungi after fungi kept dropping and my tank lost /random after /random. A rogue joined, won tunic and left right after, saying something came up. Another rogue joined, won tunic, but stayed for hours afterwards because the consecutive fungis suddenly stopped dropping and they felt bad. From then on there would be no more tunics. A few holdouts insisted they would stay but it was very late in the evening by then, with everyone having plans the next day/week. So we called it.

My other tank must have attended a good 50 or so scout rolls, sometimes with the bare minimum numbers present, yet never won the random.

[shovelquest]

Originally Posted by onmove_broke [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Rolled a 0 out of 222 on a T-staff. Spent 8k on a Word for my lv 49 pet and failed

What was it like being hitler in your past life? [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[shovelquest]

As opposed to the unlucky folk.

I'd like to hear from the folk that generally think, "Im a lucky guy" like.. everything goes your way and you win everything, and have no real concept of the idea of "bad luck" and wonder if everyone that complains about it is crazy.

Or even better, you're well aware of your luck and just laugh about it and bet on black every time and a hot babe trips and falls on you and both your clothes fall off etc.