Tradeskill success not matching wiki formula

[Wisteso]

Roughly same conclusion I was having larper99. The formula was saying I should have 66% chance but I was having significantly higher with a fairly high sample size that should have ruled out random luck.

As for updating the wiki, that would assume I know the correct calculation. I don't. I just know that what's on there presently looks to be wrong.

[loramin]

Originally Posted by Wisteso [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Roughly same conclusion I was having larper99. The formula was saying I should have 66% chance but I was having significantly higher with a fairly high sample size that should have ruled out random luck.

As for updating the wiki, that would assume I know the correct calculation. I don't. I just know that what's on there presently looks to be wrong.

People often say this sort of thing about the wiki, but you don't have to know what's right to say that something's wrong. For instance, I added the following to the Tradeskills page based on this thread:

NOTE: This formula is suspect, and may not be correct for Project 1999. See [1].

Now of course, it'd be even better if someone could delete that and the incorrect formula, and put in a correct one, but my point is that even if all you do is add a "this seems wrong" note, you're still moving the wiki in the right direction.

[larper99]

So, finally did a bit more baking this weekend. Took note of my successes.

I was making beer braised wolf (trivial 68) with a tradeskill of 67. My success rate was about 66%.
As soon as I got to level 68, I got 15 successes in a row. So, I jumped from 66% to apparently the 95% level once I reached trivial (although sample size is too small).

Then I did some pickled froglok. Trivial 61. Got 23 successes out of 27 attempts, for an 85% success. Expected (from Wiki) would be 73, so with such a small sample size seems like the formula is correct.

Not enough samples, but research will continue as time and resources permit.

[eqravenprince]

Originally Posted by larper99 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

So, finally did a bit more baking this weekend. Took note of my successes.

I was making beer braised wolf (trivial 68) with a tradeskill of 67. My success rate was about 66%.
As soon as I got to level 68, I got 15 successes in a row. So, I jumped from 66% to apparently the 95% level once I reached trivial (although sample size is too small).

Then I did some pickled froglok. Trivial 61. Got 23 successes out of 27 attempts, for an 85% success. Expected (from Wiki) would be 73, so with such a small sample size seems like the formula is correct.

Not enough samples, but research will continue as time and resources permit.

This has also been my experience, once trivial there is a decent jump in success. You'd think it would be more gradual.