2020 Election MEGAthread

[Jibartik]

I got a friend in TX that says he has 10k people coming through his little restaurant every month, sounds to me like it will stay red lol

[Castle2.0]

Here is an an academic paper draft manuscript about this topic. Apolitical and unbiased.

"Public Election Polls are 95% Confident but only 60% Accurate"

ABSTRACT
In this paper, we investigate the calibration of public election polls. We present a definition of poll accuracy based on whether the poll’s margin of error spans the true election outcome. Most polls provide a 95% confidence interval along with the poll results, we sought to find whether their accuracy is as high as their confidence levels claim. Furthermore, we also wanted to see how this accuracy evolves over time as polls are conducted closer to the actual election. We find that even a week away from the election, polls claiming 95% confidence are only accurate 60% of the time. Moreover, we conclude that these polls would in fact need margins of error twice their reported width in order to be truly 95% confident. This provides a unique insight into the adjustment polls need over time and quantifies the systemic error polls contain beyond what the traditional statistics captures.

CONCLUSION
...
Our findings highlight the need for those communicating the results of election polls to adjust downward the level of confidence they claim, or to adjust upward the size of the reported confidence interval. If they wish to report well-calibrated confidence intervals, pollsters or reporters ought to report substantially wider confidence intervals. Current practice, which reports confidence intervals assuming that the only source of error is sampling error, overestimates the accuracy of polls.
...

Source: https://psyarxiv.com/rj643/ -- worth a read - only 2 pages, if you don't understanding polling, margin of error, confidence levels, etc. this is a good start to jump right into it.
Authors: Don Moore (Decision researcher at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business) and Aditya Kotak (Quantitative Trading Strats Analyst @ Goldman Sachs)

tl;dr

Either

1. Change their methods so their polls WORK, and keep a high confidence interval (95%) and low margin of error
2. Adjust their confidence interval DOWN so we know how unreliable the poll is
3. Adjust their margin of error UP so we know their poll might be "right", but not super meaningful because the range of outcomes is so wide

2 & 3 don't help us get more accurate information about how people will vote. And (most) pollsters haven't changed their methods.

The 2016 STATE POLLS were OUTSIDE the margin of error in many instances, and sometimes by a multiple of the margin of error. The polls were... WRONG

[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by Jibartik [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I got a friend in TX that says he has 10k people coming through his little restaurant every month, sounds to me like it will stay red lol

Oh probably, but if it’s close or does go blue I HOPE the rednecks extricate their heads from their asses. California, Illinois, and New York are shit holes and the 0% interest rate massive deficit spending BS is actually increasing inequality. There are real common sense solutions to tackling our shares problems. Sadly, both parties seem beholden to their wealthiest donors who are A). Not Christian and B) unamerican scum

We are romans. It is not acceptable to be Godless, useless, obese, OR stupid. This is critical. You guys must get PhD’s in STEM subjects or your political opinion is moot. See you in Valhalla, just kidding, you won’t be there

[Castle2.0]

You'll never guess whose birthday ACB's nomination coincides with...

They thought the Hillary/Hunter prez/VP ticket would win - but it will not! [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[imperiouskitten]

Originally Posted by Patriam1066 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Oh probably, but if it’s close or does go blue I HOPE the rednecks extricate their heads from their asses. California, Illinois, and New York are shit holes and the 0% interest rate massive deficit spending BS is actually increasing inequality. There are real common sense solutions to tackling our shares problems. Sadly, both parties seem beholden to their wealthiest donors who are A). Not Christian and B) unamerican scum

We are romans. It is not acceptable to be Godless, useless, obese, OR stupid. This is critical. You guys must get PhD’s in STEM subjects or your political opinion is moot. See you in Valhalla, just kidding, you won’t be there

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[FatherSioux]

500k deaths because trump...real rich.

[imperiouskitten]

Originally Posted by FatherSioux [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

500k deaths because trump...real rich.

zero leadership. if you're content with how it was handled you're unfixable.

[FatherSioux]

Originally Posted by imperiouskitten [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

zero leadership. if you're content with how it was handled you're unfixable.

I like it when the morons wave flags declaring their idiocy, easier to ignore.

[imperiouskitten]

Originally Posted by FatherSioux [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I like it when the morons wave flags declaring their idiocy, easier to ignore.

nice nothing statement gramps. you truly can't imagine a single thing that could have been done better?

how confucian.

highest education level attained? (STEM)

[FatherSioux]

Originally Posted by imperiouskitten [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

nice nothing statement gramps. you truly can't imagine a single thing that could have been done better?

how confucian.

highest education level attained? (STEM)

Step 1) Lay every Covid death at the presidents feet
Step 2) Shift goal posts
Step 3) Claim all you’re saying is he could have done some nameless things better

PS: BS in CS in progress