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Planar Protector
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,490
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Originally Posted by Swish
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Got to be some fake reporting or my 5G senses are tingling. How does a country with 1.5 billion people have 90,000 cases? India and China should be around the same %
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https://thehill.com/policy/internati...numbers-report
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...0116012v2.full
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Cremation based estimates suggest significant under- and delayed reporting of COVID-19 epidemic data in Wuhan and China
Mai He, Li Li, Louis P. Dehner, Lucia F. Dunn
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
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Detailed information on crematory facility and operation is listed in Appendix 1, but also summarized in Table 1.6,7 Briefly, there are eight crematories in Wuhan, which under normal circumstances would operate about 4 hours per day. Before the outbreak, cremation mainly happened in the morning, according to Chinese rituals. Starting on or before January 25, 2020, these were observed to be operating at or close to around-the-clock or 24 hours daily.6–12 This would put the current operating rate at about six times normal. Normal deaths per day can be estimated as 136 based on an annual mortality rate of 0.00551 in a population of approximately 9 million (Wuhan government data).13 With the regular procedure, the additional 20 hours of daily operation imply additional deaths of 5 (20/4) x 136 = 680 per day above normal, if the services are utilized with full capacity. However, it was estimated that the maximal capacity of cremation could be up to 2,100 bodies per day (see appendix 1).
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A potential weakness of this study is that there is no cremation information in medical literature. All cremation related information came from media reports. To reduce bias, we used media reports from both within China and outside China.6–12
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Some researchers have inferred the percentage of undocumented infections, concluding that approximately 86% of all infections were apparently undocumented and that these were the source of infection for 79% of documented cases.30 Scissors, examining out-migrants, has also pointed out that China’s COVID-19 figures are arithmetically impossible.31 Tsang et. al. estimated that by Feb 20, 2020, there would have been 232,000 (95% CrI (161,000-359,000)) confirmed cases in China as opposed to only 55,508 reported cases.32 By using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data, Sanche S et al projected the infected population would be around 233,400 (95% CI 38,757–778,278) by the end of January.33 These studies raise similar concerns about the underreporting of Chinese COVID-19 cases.
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Yes, a Dr. Scissors exists. No, his first name is not Edward or Hans. Also, from the wiki, AEI (American Enterprise Institute) received the bulk of its funding from Donors Trust, with Charles and David Koch being the largest contributors. Scissors also sites CGTN which is questionable. Bloomberg requires a subscription. And the National Bureau of Statistics of China website isn't exactly light reading material.
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Chinese media raised concerns about infections and deaths beyond the official statistics; for example, when the director of a fever clinic complained that he could admit only five out of 80 potentially infected patients, which suggested a potential 16-fold difference between possible infected patients and confirmed diagnoses in Wuhan. 4 The report mentioned the limited nucleic acid-based testing, which was available only after the sequencing data was announced on January 11, 2020. This information also pointed to the limited and exhausted medical facility capacity in Wuhan in late January and early February 2020. In Table 5, we list representative medical facilities in Wuhan and additional support from rest of China. Note that Wuhan was reported to have approximately 95,000 beds by the end of 2018. 28 Wuhan designated 100,000 beds for COVID patients by February 20.29 This ratio of bed numbers to official confirmed cumulative diagnoses 47,741 as of February 25, 2020 presents a discrepancy which cannot be explained by other causes. Similarly, as of Mar 8, Wuhan had 178,900 health care professionals, and 16,900 ventilators provided to Wuhan, to care for the officially recognized 50,000 (cumulative) patients by that time, is also inexplicable, unless most of the infected were admitted to ICU around the same time.25
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medRxiv (pronounced "med-archive") is an Internet site distributing unpublished eprints about health sciences.[1][2][3][4] It distributes complete but unpublished manuscripts in the areas of medicine, clinical research, and related health sciences without charge to the reader. Such manuscripts have yet to undergo peer review and the site notes that preliminary status and that the manuscripts should not be considered for clinical application, nor relied upon for news reporting as established information.[5] The site was founded in 2019 by John Inglis and Richard Sever of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL), Theodora Bloom and Claire Rawlinson of BMJ (the medical publisher), and Harlan Krumholz of Yale University. The server is owned and operated by CSHL.
medRxiv, and its sister site, bioRxiv, have been major sources for the dissemination of research on COVID-19.[6]
Since February, 2020 medRxiv indexed in PubMed.[7]
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05-04-2021, 10:50 PM
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