student loans are a hit!

[unsunghero]

Originally Posted by loramin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You don't need a survey. You look at state #1 that gives 10 years for a crime and state #2 that gives 20 years: it's that simple.

When you do, you see that the crime rate is the same in both states: state #2's harsher penalty didn't deter anyone.

Because there are no other differences between the populations of 2 possibly very different states that might factor into those rates. Of course

[Ooloo]

I also don't understand how you can even measure such a thing, really.

Like, a guy murders somebody. Okay. That's not evidence that deterrence doesn't work, it's just evidence it didn't work for that specific guy. How are you supposed to measure all the other hypothetical people who *would* have murdered but didn't because of the harsh penalties? The conclusion that deterrence doesn't work seems fundamentally unfalsifiable and therefor useless for drafting policy.

It reminds me a lot of the arguments against drug prohibition. It's always some variation of "there are laws against it and people do it anyway, therefor the laws don't stop it!". And it's like, go check the stats on drug abuse in Singapore. Pretty sure deterrence works.

[Nibblewitz]

As the price of something rises, the quantity demanded decreases. Raise the price of crime to reduce crime.

[Lune]

Originally Posted by Nibblewitz [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

As the price of something rises, the quantity demanded decreases. Raise the price of crime to reduce crime.

It doesn't work that way unfortunately, and that's not just me bullshitting it's borne out by criminologists; criminals tend not to be the most rational actors. In fact, it does the exact opposite. Being in prison longer more extensively destabilizes lives and further indoctrinates into criminality.

Even the corrections union, JSTOR (journal of a bunch of lawyers), and Federal Office of Justice Programs (corrections oversight) say this

[unsunghero]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It doesn't work that way unfortunately, and that's not just me bullshitting it's borne out by criminologists; criminals tend not to be the most rational actors. In fact, it does the exact opposite. Being in prison longer more extensively destabilizes lives and further indoctrinates into criminality.

How do we measure the people who were deterred by the penalty from attempting in the first place. How do they report this on surveys? They go fill out some survey saying they were thinking about x crime but changed their mind because of the penalty?

Looks like your studies are cherry picking re-offenders. Longer sentences also deter offending by keeping the person away from the public for longer, do they not?

[Lune]

Originally Posted by unsunghero [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

How do we measure the people who were deterred by the penalty from attempting in the first place. How do they report this on surveys? They go fill out some survey saying they were thinking about x crime but changed their mind because of the penalty?

Looks like your studies are cherry picking re-offenders.

The same way they study pretty much anything involving human health or behavior; by looking at recidivism rates between jurisdictions and controlling for variables to isolate cause and effect to a meaningful p value and effect size.

We know crime rates in the 80's went bananas before declining again but we don't really know why. Some jurisdictions went 'tough on crime', others didn't, even within the same city (overlapping sheriff and PD jurisdictions for example, or Los Angeles vs. Long Beach, Dallas vs. Fort Worth). They collated all this data and controlled for things like demographics, poverty, national and local overall crime trends, and looked at recidivism rates for different policies. They compared to similar jurisdictions to control for naturally changing crime rates. Jurisdictions with longer sentences either saw no significant change or an increase in crime, overall.

Originally Posted by unsunghero [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Longer sentences also deter offending by keeping the person away from the public for longer, do they not?

They absolutely do, this is called incapacitation (vs. deterrence) and it does reduce crime in the short term, but is counteracted to an extent by increased crime from the long sentences in criminal academy.

You're keeping people off the streets where they can't commit crimes against the public, but you're also taking someone who maybe could have been redirected and fucking them up, as well as putting a bunch of other criminals in their lives. Then think of the determinism of your life and consider how things might have been different for you if you spent your late teens and early 20's hanging out with a bunch of drug dealers, burglars, and muggers for literally years on end day after day. Also you probably already feel like you fucked up your life. Then compare this to moving somebody out of the situation they were in when they committed the crime, but getting them back out before their life is completely fucked and they grew up in prison.

Tony Soprano isn't like "oh shit they're RICOing us bedda stop mobbin'"

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It doesn't work that way unfortunately, and that's not just me bullshitting it's borne out by criminologists; criminals tend not to be the most rational actors. In fact, it does the exact opposite. Being in prison longer more extensively destabilizes lives and further indoctrinates into criminality.

Even the corrections union, JSTOR (journal of a bunch of lawyers), and Federal Office of Justice Programs (corrections oversight) say this

Could you think of any reason they would say that other than it being the God's honest truth?

Prisons are expensive.

Now you try!

[unsunghero]

Saddest scene in Shawshank is a good explanation of what it must feel like to give your life to prison and get out at the tail end

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=

[Sadre Spinegnawer]

https://teachingamericanhistory.org/...on-eisenhower/

Time .... moves slow .... through time ....

[Sadre Spinegnawer]

Excerpt. 1954 ya'll!
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