Looking for goblin archeologist in Permafrost

[Goregasmic]

Originally Posted by WarpathEQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Quite frankly spawn percentage is about as useless of a metric to the person trying to consume it as it is to the person trying to determine it so. Its an RNG game so true results will vary massively for the same camp, exponentially so for rarer spawns.

IMO the only real valuable data around spawn frequency would be people recording the time it took between named spawns without leaving the camp and killing the PH consistently on spawn without gaps. Being able to triangulate a rough average of how many hours a camp takes for named to spawn would be actually useful.

I like it. A mob with a 33% spawn rate and a 90% common will tell you it will most likely be a fast camp.

A mob with a 25% spawn rate and a 25% rare might be not too bad but you'll spend a while there.

A mob with a 10% spawn and 10% rare, at a 27mins timer for a 2000pp item is pretty much in "fuck that" territory unless the camp is AFK friendly.

And then you see the sarnak courier where you have to kill a mob every 30 seconds for 8 hours. So i guess it depends on the camp and it is all subjective but in my opinion it gives a good idea at a quick glance. If I saw an estimated 1760minutes I'd be wondering what's the spawn/drop rate.

Some notably long camps like the staff of dreaded gaze and the vp key 1% spawns have time estimates already though, no one is stopping anyone from putting them in.

..... aaaand if you put a time estimate you'll get someone like "REEEEEEEEEE THAT'S NOT HOW PROBABILITIES WORK".

[Goregasmic]

Originally Posted by loramin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm not a stats geek, but as I understand it, the rule of thumb for a die is to have at least five times as many rolls as the die has sides. In other words, if you wanted to check that a six-sided die rolled "6" one out of six times, you'd need to roll it at least thirty times (and see five "6" results).

If your theory is that A Sarnak Courier drops the ring 2% of the time, that equates to 1 out of 50 rolls of a fifty-sided die. Thus, you'd need to do about 250 (50 * 5) rolls (ie. 250 Courier kills), and see five rings drop, to be reasonably certain that the drop rate was 2%.

Obviously, no one is going to do 250 Courier kills, because no one needs five goblin rings. For cases like that, I think the best anyone can do is start a list on the wiki page, saying something like "Bob: 47 Courier kills until a ring dropped". Then Fred can add "Fred: 55 kills", and eventually, over time, the wiki will collect enough cases (250 for the courier) to be confident in changing a number.

I was wondering if there was something like that, interesting read thank you!

Yeah I don't think most mobs are interesting enough to be worthy of such a list but there should be more. Real quick courier is the only one I can think of but I would have thought people doing pained soul/rotting skeleton or other such mobs would have kept a log.

Originally Posted by maddysinko [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It can definitely be frustrating when the spawn rate feels super low, but 9 cycles isn’t too bad when it comes to these kinds of drop chances. I haven’t heard of any bugs with the spawn, so it's likely just bad luck.

Yeah if 20% is accurate you have a 13% chance to not see it for 9 spawns, not incredibly wild.