FBSS rarity?

[BobSmith]

Droodler, can you put that in layman's terms?

That last chart was clear, but I did not understand the rest.

[Droodler]

Originally Posted by BobSmith [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Droodler, can you put that in layman's terms?

That last chart was clear, but I did not understand the rest.

Bayesian statistics involve three things: a prior distribution, a likelihood, and posterior (the result)

The prior distribution is what we expect the outcome to be before we apply the data. It is an assumption made from existing data or assumptions you make. Here, I made the assumption that 1 FBSS every 10 hours was reasonable. I made a prior based on this, that in 61 attempts you would get 1 FBSS.

Then what you do is take into account the actual data. Here, the OP said he had 109 spawns with 0 FBSS. I used that to create a likelihood (the red curve).

Then you combine them to get the posterior. That is the gold curve.

To interpret this graph

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Think of the x axis as the probability of a single spawn dropping an FBSS. The Y axis is a density, so you can interpret the height of each curve at a point as the probability of that being the ACTUAL FBSS drop rate.

You can see that in the prior (blue curve), the expected FBSS drop rate is around 0.018. In the post, it is 0.012.

The cumulative function I think you understand.

[BobSmith]

Thanks Droodler. I understand now.

I checked the latest EQEMU database. The frenzied ghould has a 1 in 10 chance to spawn, and each frenzied ghoul has a 1 in 5 chance to drop an FBSS. I realize this may be very different from P99, but it might be useful as an initial assumption.

[Messianic]

Originally Posted by BobSmith [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Thanks Droodler. I understand now.

I checked the latest EQEMU database. The frenzied ghould has a 1 in 10 chance to spawn, and each frenzied ghoul has a 1 in 5 chance to drop an FBSS. I realize this may be very different from P99, but it might be useful as an initial assumption.

Do you have the exact percentage amounts? When you start piling probabilities, it can make a good bit of difference.

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by BobSmith [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Thanks Droodler. I understand now.

I checked the latest EQEMU database. The frenzied ghould has a 1 in 10 chance to spawn, and each frenzied ghoul has a 1 in 5 chance to drop an FBSS. I realize this may be very different from P99, but it might be useful as an initial assumption.

If this is accurate for p99, then I did indeed get pretty darn unlucky. 20% chance to drop a fbss means that there was only about a 16% chance that I shouldn't have seen it at least once from 8 frenzied ghouls. And then there is the fact that I saw slightly fewer frenzied ghouls than the average.

Edit - again, assuming those numbers are accurate for p99, I think the average-ish time someone would have to spend at frenzy to get an fbss would only be about 6-7 hours.

[BobSmith]

So if the rates in the EQEMU db are the same as P99, then there is a 1 in 50 chance for each spawn to be a frenzied ghoul with an FBSS. If you kill 6 spawns per hour, then you'd kill 60 in 10 hours. There would be about a 70 percent chance that at least one spawn out of those sixty would result in an FBSS.

At that rate, there is about an 88 percent chance that killing 107 spawns would result in at least one FBSS.

So, either you got unlucky, or the drop rate is lower on P99 than EQEMU.

[Messianic]

What's so amusing is how much money people could have made in the same 30+ hours they spent trying to farm the FBSS, had they just gone out and tried to earn the money the consistent way. Particularly pet classes.

You could have likely just made the cash and bought like 2 FBSS', even with what they typically go for nowadays.

All I can say is I can't wait for Kunark so all my favorite classic places start opening up [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[Extunarian]

I found Droodler's analysis helpful and interesting. I'm sorry that he couldn't confirm for you that you were significantly unlucky, and I'm sorry you react with such contempt when you see charts.

[Messianic]

Originally Posted by Extunarian [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I found Droodler's analysis helpful and interesting. I'm sorry that he couldn't confirm for you that you were significantly unlucky, and I'm sorry you react with such contempt when you see charts.

CHARTS BAD

GO AWAY

[Shiftin]

sky haste belts rot they're going out of style and the first island can be farmed by 1 group, the second island by 2 groups.