FBSS rarity?

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by guineapig [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

In that case you will need a ton of people responding to this thread.

My guess is that there are somewhere between 600-700 sashes in the game right now.

I'm basing this guess on the number of days the server has been live, rounding down to 400 due to server down time and the first month when the population was low and leveling up. Then I'm guessing that about 1-2 sashes drop on average per day.

No, I won't need a ton of people responding. I only need a significant amount of data like what I provided to get a ballpark figure for how rare FBSS drops are. The number of them on the server, the time the server has been, how often they are farmed, all that can contribute to the answer I want... but I hardly need 100+ people to tell me how long it took each of them to get their FBSS in order to have a ballpark figure.

Without finding my statistics textbooks from undergrad, I'll venture a guess that the data from 80 hours of farming frenzy would be more than enough to get a pretty darn good idea of the drop rate of the thing.


And re: all the charts, why would you take the time to put all that up there based on an assumption that you had no foundation for? Or did you actually have a reason to believe that 1 FBSS drop per 10 hours at frenzy is about average, and I just missed it?

Edit - Oh come on. You admitted that the 1 in 10 hours figure was totally made up, but you still bothered to make those posts?

[Messianic]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And re: all the charts, why would you take the time to put all that up there based on an assumption that you had no foundation for?

My guess is....fun? Trying to be helpful?

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Edit - Oh come on. You admitted that the 1 in 10 hours figure was totally made up, but you still bothered to make those posts?

THIS IS A TRAVESTY

I AM DISAPPOINT

[guineapig]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No, I won't need a ton of people responding. I only need a significant amount of data like what I provided to get a ballpark figure for how rare FBSS drops are. The number of them on the server, the time the server has been, how often they are farmed, all that can contribute to the answer I want... but I hardly need 100+ people to tell me how long it took each of them to get their FBSS in order to have a ballpark figure.

Well, if only 10 people reply and 5 reply with smug answers like I got mine third spawn or I got 2 in a row then your figures are going to be pretty darn inaccurate. If you wanted any statistics that are worth using you would want a significant number of replies. Hence why I said you would want a ton of replies to get usable information.... especially on these forums.

The devs would be able to tell you the exact number on the server but I'm not sure they would be willing to do that. It doesn't hurt to ask nicely but keep in mind that they are super busy with more important things.

We already gave you a ballpark though, so I'm not sure what else you want.
If you spent 24 hours there non-stop I'm pretty sure you would get one.
But, there is always a chance that you won't.
That's the best answer you are going to get.

[Droodler]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And re: all the charts, why would you take the time to put all that up there based on an assumption that you had no foundation for? Or did you actually have a reason to believe that 1 FBSS drop per 10 hours at frenzy is about average, and I just missed it?

There's an entire field of statistics that deals with these sorts of problems. I just applied it to your question.

Using BobSmith's 1/50 drop rate, here are the recalculated statistics (no time for graphs right now)

Expected drop rate: 1.24%

It's making the most with the least amount of data. Sorry I couldn't magically create data for you.

And yes, you did get unlucky. I did a G test for goodness of fit of the 1/50 chance, and the p-value was 0.1398.

Edit: Based on your results, the FBSS rate is not significantly different than 1/50. With more data, it may be. You didn't get significantly unlucky

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by guineapig [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

We already gave you a ballpark though, so I'm not sure what else you want

"Info" that has been given in this thread re: the rarity of the fbss:

1. 18 hours, 109 spawn chances, 8 frenzied ghouls, 0 fbss.

2. "i've seen 3 drop in about a 5 hour span."

3. a bunch of charts and stuff by Droodler that was all based on an admittedly arbitrary number

4. "I'm guessing that about 1-2 sashes drop on average per day." -> "My guess is that there are somewhere between 600-700 sashes in the game right now."


Please point me to which one of these, exactly, gave me a ballpark figure for how long it takes to get an fbss drop at frenzy. And remember, people pulling arbitrary numbers out of thin air does not give us anything useful.

[Krimsin]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Please point me to which one of these, exactly, gave me a ballpark figure for how long it takes to get an fbss drop at frenzy. And remember, people pulling arbitrary numbers out of thin air does not give us anything useful.

Why do you care? If you want an FBSS get on and farm it.

What do statistics get you other than a chance to gripe about how "unlucky" you are?

KILL MOAR FRENZIES!!

/therad

[soup]

You the guy I saw selling 8 Moonstone rings? [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by soup [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You the guy I saw selling 8 Moonstone rings? [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Yeah. I vendored hem about 20 seconds after I auctioned, haha. No idea what they actually sell for to players, but I'm not one to sit in EC for very long [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[Jadian]

i've seen 3 drop in about a 5 hour span. Luck of the draw man. BTW that whole time I never saw a Frenzied pop on the right side (if you are facing the fountain). Dunno if that one has a lower % chance to spawn Frenzied or if it really is just that random.

[Droodler]

It's tough to make good estimates without some assumptions.

Here's a Bayesian method I just used to calculate the probability of getting an FBSS.

We start with a prior probability of getting 1 FBSS every 10 hours (this is arbitrary). Since you had 109 attempts in 18 hours (or 6.1 attempts per hour), that means our expectation rate of FBSS is 1/61.

If you use Laplace's rule of succession and fit a beta distribution to that prior, we get Beta(2,61). This distribution looks like this:

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Now, when we include the information that you provided (101 tries, 0 successes) we end up with a Bayesian that looks like this

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

In this one, the blue is the prior probability, the red is your findings, and the gold is the posterior probability. So, this tells you what the FBSS drop rate is most likely to be based on the data available.

Some statistics on that post distribution:

Mode: p -> 0.00606061

Expected value: 0.011976

From this data, I calculate the FBSS rate per bloodthirsty ghoul killed to be 1.20%.

EDIT: Here is a cumulative probability function based on a geometric distribution. The x axis is the number of frenzy/bloodthirsty you kill and the Y axis is the probability of having looted at least 1 FBSS.

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

EDIT: If anyone has more data, I would be happy to throw it in here.