camping undead jester

[Shamen]

so I have decided to get the Ikky club for my warrior....

I have killed 59phs
undead jester spawned 7 times
club dropped ZERO times

What is going on? Is it bugged or what? Nerfed? This is not normal....or is it? I have done it twice before and it took me roughly 4hrs each time....this does not smell right [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

P99 wiki:
An undead jester
Known Loot: Iksar Berserker Club (Uncommon) [1] 1x 50% (50%)

[Droog007]

I think you're still within the normal range for a rare spawn / rare drop scenario...

I believe the data posted on the wiki is a little on the optimistic side.

[Droog007]

If it was nerfed, it was probably rightly so ... 7/18 with a cool proc is kinda OP from a level 14 mob.

[Hailto]

Whats the issue here? You can flip a coin and have it land on heads 7 times, that's how probability works.

[Ele]

This comes up quite often with camps like Pained Soul and Rotting Skeleton. People sit there long enough and believe they are "due" a spawn/drop. This is completely untrue. Each spawn is an independent event and your chances of seeing the named/item on that particular spawn are the same each time. It is the gambler's fallacy.

[whippetofspades]

Originally Posted by Ele [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This comes up quite often with camps like Pained Soul and Rotting Skeleton. People sit there long enough and believe they are "due" a spawn/drop. This is completely untrue. Each spawn is an independent event and your chances of seeing the named/item on that particular spawn are the same each time. It is the gambler's fallacy.

While every event is independent what makes this unlikely is the notion of an uninterrupted streak. That is that it is equally unlikely to get ten heads in a row as it is alternating heads then tails for every toss. If what you describe were true, there would be a fifty-fifty chance between getting ten heads in a row and getting ten tails, and every possible combination between.

[Abbot]

Got it twice within 4 spawns I think. Not entirely 100% but he was back up with club when I got back from putting the first in the bank.

You can have one for free if you want. PM/post ign and I will catch ya one day.

[Furniture]

info from the wiki is the drop rate in peq not p99

[Llodd]

Can be a long camp aye. I must have done a similar if not more amount to you with roughly the same amount of jester spawns around a week ago. He finally showed up with the club rather that that two handed steel.

Not broken, just laborious and without any luck... tortureous... :]

Abbot just incredibly lucky. Happens.

[Shamen]

UPDATE:

I have killed 72phs
undead jester spawned 9 times
club dropped ZERO times

thanks for offer Abbot, sent you PM!