EQ and New Player Population

[calaxa]

Originally Posted by stormlord [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The MMO's after 2003 might have "broke the camels back," but it had had a bad back for a while.

The decline does not have to be huge. If you have a decline in active subscriptions, you're very likely also hve a decline in new player subscriptions. In fact, I think this is highly likely. We all know that EQ, just like any other mmorpg, becomes top heavy in short order. Without a strong thriving new player population that can find groups and survive in EQ's world, all you got left are the veterans. Veterans get tired of playing the same game over and over. They try new things. When EQ2 and WOW came out, just as Anarchy Online and DAOC and others, EQ lost accounts. The decline did not start with WOW or EQ2, as I was trying to point out here by referring the reader to the event that happened in mid 2001 when there was a marked decrease in the rate of active subscriptions. It might not have started with it, but it certainly was hit hard in 2005. Some other mmo's that came out in 2004-05 were: Lineage II, City of Heroes, Guild Wars, Matrix Online, Conquer Online.

Storm,

I'm saying you misread the chart. EQ leveled off in 2001 with it's peak subscriber rate in 2004-2005. Look at the chart again. It basically held steady at 450K-500K sub during the years 2001-2005. This actually coincided with Sony press releases. After that, they kept their mouth shut as to how many subs they had. The dropoff didn't occur until 2005. You must have been looking at a different line. I played well into this era and perhaps many of you guys left but there were true newbs still entering into the fray. There were many boxxers appearing increasing the overall sub rate and many returning players to check out the new expansions. I dabbled in other MMOs during this time as well but kept my accounts on EQ one year after I left (accidentally actually as I had forgotten to cancel and paid the year in advance).

[stormlord]

Originally Posted by calaxa [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Storm,

I'm saying you misread the chart. EQ leveled off in 2001 with it's peak subscriber rate in 2004-2005. Look at the chart again. It basically held steady at 450K-500K sub during the years 2001-2005. This actually coincided with Sony press releases. After that, they kept their mouth shut as to how many subs they had. The dropoff didn't occur until 2005. You must have been looking at a different line. I played well into this era and perhaps many of you guys left but there were true newbs still entering into the fray. There were many boxxers appearing increasing the overall sub rate and many returning players to check out the new expansions. I dabbled in other MMOs during this time as well but kept my accounts on EQ one year after I left (accidentally actually as I had forgotten to cancel and paid the year in advance).

You seem to only care when the active subscriptions go down, but not what the rate of active subscriptions is in a positive direction. The rate matters, not whether it's plus or minus. It's a sign of what's going on underneath. Unfortunately, we're not privy to the details, but this gives us hints. When the rate decreased, that was a sign that active subscriptions were going in a negative direction. What happened in 2001 and in the years that came after was a sign of bad things. A trend.

In mid 2001 and after, barely enough people were coming back from a break or buying the game to try it out to make up for people who were leaving or taking a break to make a positive gain. When you see the trend, you see that less and less people were coming back from a break or coming into the game for the first time. It was so small that for 2.5 years only 50,000 active subscribers were gained - a trickle compared to pre-2001 gains. Between 2001 and 2004, it's hard to say whether new players or old players were coming into the game to replace those who left, but what we can say is that there were less and less of them.

Underlined that because it's the important part and ties into the thread.

[calaxa]

Originally Posted by stormlord [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You seem to only care when the active subscriptions go down, but not what the rate of active subscriptions is in a positive direction. The rate matters, not whether it's plus or minus. It's a sign of what's going on underneath. Unfortunately, we're not privy to the details, but this gives us hints. When the rate decreased, that was a sign that active subscriptions were going in a negative direction. What happened in 2001 and in the years that came after was a sign of bad things. A trend.

In mid 2001 and after, barely enough people were coming back from a break or buying the game to try it out to make up for people who were leaving or taking a break to make a positive gain. When you see the trend, you see that less and less people were coming back from a break or coming into the game for the first time. It was so small that for years only 50,000 subscribers were gained - a mere trickle compared to pre-2001. Between 2001 and 2004, it's hard to say whether new players or old players were coming into the game to replace those who left, but what we can say is that there were less and less of them.

You're focused too much on growth rates. At some point, it will plateau and that's what the chart demonstrates. If you're only focused on rates, a movie has it's greatest growth on opening weekend and it's downhill from there. I wouldn't call that a failure of that particular movie. If it stays level, that's an anomoly. I would think an MMO having a plateau of 3 years is quite successful as that is sustained revenue. Believe me, 50K sub gain per year is still substantial revenue (not sure if it was $10 or $12 but assuming $10/month, that's 500K/month or 6 million/yr extra for no addition capacity neeeded?). SOE knew that EQ would peak and began development on their sequel during this cycle. It's probably the reason why SOE milked us with 2 expansions per year during this time adding an extra $50 per account. Another famous MMO decided to cancel their sequel and let their product stagnate and surprisingly, it still grew, reaching its peak around the same time as EQ.

I tried almost every single MMO during this era but after this, if an MMO was older than 6 months, I just would never go in. Why? I felt current players would have too much advantage over me. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way and it.

I understand the trend analysis you're trying to make but the growth rate is not an indicator of the quality of play or dissatisfaction of current subscriber base. The statistics merely show that EQ had met its saturation point and you would not attract any new players to this genre.