Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[Duik]

And we have a finite number of events. While i do not understand fully the math i can grasp there is a difference because our fights take a finite number of random or percentage inputs.

I also understand all of us will not get this subtle difference.

I say just play and give your mana to a kobold in the form of dot damage followed by a dd from a smoldering brand (eventually hehe) then give it a good rogering (root it). Doggy is being a good boy. Always end fights with ZERO MANA and 12% health. That way you know you are fighting lvl appropriate content. Extra points for medding on a pathing mobs route. That is min/max.
Minimum XP from maximum expenditure. Go forth and modulus divide!

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Duik [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And we have a finite number of events.

If you want to use Binomial Distributions, you need to use it for all of the DPS numbers. JBB, Pet, Blight Hammer Proc, Player White Damage, etc.

Bcbrown is trying to mix a Binomial Distribution into Normal Distributions, which is incorrect. He is using the Normal Distribution (infinite) JBB DPS, while trying to use the Binomial Distribution (finite) weapon proc DPS.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by Duik [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And we have a finite number of events. While i do not understand fully the math i can grasp there is a difference because our fights take a finite number of random or percentage inputs.

I also understand all of us will not get this subtle difference.

Oh this subtle nuance makes absolutely no real-world difference. But since DSM is utterly incapable of admitting he is ever wrong, he's in an all-out fight over whether his Scourge proc does 2.2DPS or 0.75DPS while spamming JBB. Utterly irrelevant.

But to close the loop on the simplified example we started yesterday:

If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=0 swing, the probability is 10.4 * 89.6 * 89.6, or 8.35%, and does 112 damage
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=8 swing, the probability is 89.6 * 10.4 * 89.6, or 8.35%, and does 88 damage
If there's only one proc, and it's on the t=16 swing, the probability is 89.6 * 89.6 * 10.4, or 8.35%, and does 64 damage
If there's no proc, damage is 0, the probability is 89.6 * 89.6 * 89.6, 71.9%, and does zero damage
If there's two procs at t=0 and t=8, the probability is 10.4 * 10.4 * 89.6, or 0.97%, and does 152 damage
If there's two procs at t=0 and t=16, the probability is 10.4 * 89.6 * 10.4, or 0.97%, and does 152 damage
If there's two procs at t=8 and t=16, the probability is 89.6 * 10.4 * 10.4, or 0.97%, and does 112 damage
If there's a proc on all three swings, the probability is 10.4 * 10.4 * 10.4, or 0.11%, and does 192 damage

The sum of probabilities is 100% after compensating for rounding: 8.35 + 8.35 + 8.35 + 71.9 + 0.97 + 0.97 + 0.97 + 0.11 = 99.97

The expected value is equal to the sum of all the possible outcomes, each weighted by the probability of that outcome occurring.
112 * .0835 + 88 * .0835 + 64 * .0835 + 0 * .719 + 152 * .0097 + 152 * .0097 + 112 * .0097 + 192 * .0011 = 26.29

So the expected damage is 26.29 over an 18 second fight, or 1.46 DPS.

This calculation will provide a different DPS value for a 132 second fight, but the principle behind the calculation is the same. I did this calculation here, and came up with 0.75DPS

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Oh this subtle nuance makes absolutely no real-world difference. But since DSM is utterly incapable of admitting he is ever wrong, he's in an all-out fight over whether his Scourge proc does 2.2DPS or 0.75DPS while spamming JBB. Utterly irrelevant.
...
or 1.46 DPS.
...
and came up with 0.75DPS.

I find this amusing.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=525

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You're still using 2.2DPS for the scourge proc when it should be 0.75DPS.

Bcbrown was the one who started this debate by quibbling over the Scourge proc DPS. I am not sure why he is blaming me for his own "utterly irrelevant" idea. He's the one in an all-out fight. I am just showing you why you are wrong.

Bcbrown is complaining about subtlety, while simultaneously trying to Shave 1 DPS off of the JBB Shaman in this post in a clear attempt to "win" or "not be wrong": https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=523 .

This is clearly projection. I factually admitted to being wrong in this very thread when you pointed out I missed the meditation mana in my older calculations. It's trivial to disprove this kind of strawman nonsense. Making a mistake in a math calculation does not mean I have to automatically concede my entire argument. Troxx had incorrect math calculations too, but I don't see you applying the same accusations to him.

Bcbrown forgets that I am not including white damage from the Shaman hitting the mob while trying to proc, which means you would probably still end up with roughly 2 DPS at minimum using both of his DPS numbers. Regardless of whether his Binomial Distribution math is correct or not, he isn't getting his desired outcome of decreasing the JBB Shaman's DPS numbers enough to give the DoT Shaman the edge. The JBB Shaman's numbers are actually higher since I used a lower PPM value and didn't include white damage, but I don't need to change the existing numbers. The JBB Shaman is already winning with the lower 2.2 DPS value.

He is also mixing Normal Distributions and Binomial Distributions, which I have called him out on multiple times. My calculations are all using Normal Distributions.

The data fully supports my claim that JBB is the best leveling tool from 45-60 without Epic.

For people looking to understand the Normal Distribution of DPS on procs and white damage: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=646

For people looking to understand why JBB is better than root/rotting for leveling from 45-60 on a Shaman without Epic: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=523

For people looking to understand why FSI is the MinMax option on Shamans: https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=311