They change drop rates on GGR? Wiki full of BS?

[jadier]

Originally Posted by DMN [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Only know two people dumb enough to camp this piece of trash that I trust:

Moron 1: over 20 hours 100+ couriers, no ring
Moron 2: over 15 hours 60+ courtiers 1 ring.

that's 1 ring in 160+ couriers, well under a 1% drop rate and way under the supposed/estimated 3.5% drop rate on the wiki suggests.

Nope, it's a Poisson process. Think of it like this: flipping a coin twice does not guarantee a heads, even though getting a heads is a 1-in-2 chance. Flipping a coin 4 times and seeing no heads still doesn't mean your coin is "broken".

If you see roughly 400 couriers in a row, that'd be decent evidence that there's something off with a 2% drop chance. Until then, you just have a run of bad luck.

[aztec42321]

For what it's worth, I've been camping him off and on over the course of several weeks and managed to snag myself a GGR a few days ago. It took over 80 couriers. The camp sucks ass because the placeholders spawn so quickly that you can barely step away from the computer once you have found them. I would root or entrance the PHs when I needed to grab a drink or quick bio break but a number of times I lost them if I had to be away for more than a minute or two.

This was all on Blue though, I don't know if that would make any difference.

[jadier]

Originally Posted by jadier [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Nope, it's a Poisson process. Think of it like this: flipping a coin twice does not guarantee a heads, even though getting a heads is a 1-in-2 chance. Flipping a coin 4 times and seeing no heads still doesn't mean your coin is "broken".

If you see roughly 400 couriers in a row, that'd be decent evidence that there's something off with a 2% drop chance. Until then, you just have a run of bad luck.

To clarify, this is very likely just a run of bad luck. You need way more than 160 courier pops to reject a 3.5% drop rate.

So if you see (or hear about from "trusted friends") 160 couriers in a row with no GGR that's...not super unexpected! Thousands of courier pops have been observed, and generally only those who get it crazy fast or who wait crazy-long without seeing it mention their experience on the forum. So the variance is easy to overestimate without careful logging.

tldr; put up or shut up on an actually large (>1000) spawn dataset before throwing shade on the crowd sourced wiki.