2020 Election MEGAthread

[BlackBellamy]

Speaking of electoral maps, I ran across this excellent article which explains another way the media is in bed with Biden. This one is subtle.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com...r/#more-203163

In normal term-two election cycles the baseline for media analysis should be the incumbent electoral win in term one.

The accurate baseline should be what states the incumbent (Trump) won in the prior 2016 election. From that position the analysis should then discuss what states the challenger (Biden) needs to take in order to win. The reason is simple, the incumbent already has a track record -so the assumption should be on retention of the previous outcome. However, with President Trump the media doesn’t do this.

The media now position President Trump’s opposition Joe Biden as if he has already won states and Trump needs to win them back. Essentially they flip the baseline to build upon their skewed and false polling narratives. They never did this with any prior elections.

In Obama’s 2012 term-two race he was assumed to have support in all the states he won in 2008, and Mitt Romney had to overcome states Obama was ‘holding’.

It's true too - every election I remember the incumbent was always given the benefit of the doubt that the states they captured in their initial election were more likely than not to go their way again. The article is right, it was always the assumption the challenger had to 'flip' those states back. They never talk about how Trump needs to 'hold' PA, just that he has to 'take it'.

It positions the incumbent as the challenger and flips the script, all based on on the unified braying of 'pollsters' and 'pundits' i.e. professional incompetents and liars.

I feel like this strategy might have been a mistake as it hands the correct motivation and slingshot opportunity to a person widely considered the best closer in US political history, while at the same time ensuring that any failure is a critical one because that come-from-behind feeling is hard to beat.

If Trump wins this one, I'm going to put him right at #2, behind Mariano Rivera.