2020 Election MEGAthread

[Castle2.0]

Originally Posted by Hobart

And there was no significant modeling that gave Trump only a 1-10 shot before the 2016 election.

WRONG.

Originally Posted by CNN

Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency rose from 78% last week to 91% Monday before Election Day, according to CNN's Political Prediction Market.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/polit...ump/index.html
Date: Nov 7, 2016

Originally Posted by NYTimes

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-forecast.html
Date: Nov 8, 2016

Originally Posted by 538

Hillary 87.3% Donald 12.6%

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Date: October 19, 2016

Hobart, so you know, the above numbers are approx 1 in 10 Trump wins. I did some math there for ya.

Still waiting for an answer: what do you call polling data with a purported 2-3% margin of error that is off by 10%?

ANSWER: WRONG

Also, you say they made changes. I asked, SPECIFICALLY, what did they change? You say go read about it. Sounds like you don't know. I'm not going to pore over 538 to prove a point you are failing to make.