Monthly Open Server Raids 6/5 & 6/6!

[edmazur]

Thanks again for hosting and running these open raids. It was fun to see some of this content for the first time. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I was curious about quantifying the chances at various pixels and figured others might be interested too, so I wrote a little script to analyze my log file. Note that I didn't attend Naggy. See below for the data, but here are some quick observations/thoughts:

• If you play a relatively unpopular class and something drops, you have a pretty good chance (sometimes >50%).
• If you're going to do just 1 raid, Fear is probably the best because of the number of trash drops.
• You're probably not going to get an all/all item like AoN/RBB (<1% chance).

Hate:

• Trueheart Shield - 2 rollers (50%)
• Apothic Kilt - 25 rollers (4%)
• Essence of a Vampire - 2 rollers (50%)
• Beckon - 7 rollers (14.29%)
• Vexthorne - 22 rollers (4.55%)
• Diamond Rod - 15 rollers (6.67%)

Fear:

• Eyerazzia - 2 rollers (50%)
• Shiverback-hide Armbands - 2 rollers (50%)
• Eyerazzia - 3 rollers (33.33%)
• Shiverback-hide Jerkin - 4 rollers (25%)
• Cryosilk Bracelet - 38 rollers (2.63%)
• Cryosilk Sash - 55 rollers (1.82%)
• Eyerazzia - 1 roller (100%)
• Shiverback-hide Armbands - 1 roller (100%)
• Cryosilk Gloves - 62 rollers (1.61%)
• Woven Shadow Greaves - 5 rollers (20%)
• Valorium Bracers - 1 roller (100%)
• Monsoon, Sword of the Swiftwind - 16 rollers (6.25%)
• Bone Razor - 22 rollers (4.55%)
• Vermiculated Bracelet - 32 rollers (3.13%)
• Indicolite Gauntlets - 3 rollers (33.33%)
• Vermiculated Bracelet - 27 rollers (3.7%)
• Vermiculated Leggings - 24 rollers (4.17%)
• Blighted Trousers - 13 rollers (7.69%)
• Blighted Boots - 14 rollers (7.14%)
• Ethereal Mist Helm - 19 rollers (5.26%)
• Wand of Darkness - 4 rollers (25%)
• Soul Leech, Dark Sword of Blood - 18 rollers (5.56%)
• Darkwood Trunk - 239 rollers (0.42%)
• Amulet of Necropotence - 233 rollers (0.43%)

Vox:

• Warhammer of Divine Grace - 21 rollers (4.76%)
• White Dragon Scales - 17 rollers (5.88%)
• Runed Bolster Belt - 197 rollers (0.51%)

Details on log file parsing for those curious: It's probably not perfect, but it just looks for a group of people all rolling the same die within a short time period (I decided on max 3 minutes between any 2 rolls). It then references a collection of item/number combinations from shout/ooc - if the item name appears in the Lucy item database, then it guesses that the number was someone announcing the roll. If there's then a match of a possible roll announcement happening within 3 minutes of a group of people rolling that number, then it links the events. I still had to manually cleanup the data slightly after this (e.g. after winning roll X was announced, someone did /rand X which erroneously made it look like they were the only roller and therefore winner for that item). I could have also missed rolls, especially in Fear where the raid was a lot more spread out.