Discussion on 20 minute engage rule for undead bard (trak guts) when next patch comes

[Atmas]

Originally Posted by Vallanor [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I think we're looking for a solution to a problem that doesn't exist (yet). If it's a shit show a month after the patch, then something can be worked out.

Yep, this is probably a very pointless thread. Treating this like a Fermi problem:
-There are about 1500 active players a night, the total population is higher but we really only care about the number of people who can log on per night.

-Bards are 1/14 of all classes but I think a less represented class overall so I will say 1/25 (there are some other factors here like how many actually play a bard past 50)
-Lets say the average player has 2 toons they play to sufficient level for this to matter. (I know some have many more, many have none at all)

3000 * 1/21 * 2 = 285ish

Now this is kind of hard for me because of generally playing in hardcore guilds. The average likeliness of an end game bard having an epic is? 40%? (WAG) So we say

143 * .6 = 86

Then another difficult one is what is the chance your guild has a scale for your bard. I don't really think every guild has a stock pile so maybe 1/3 chance your guild, assuming you have one, has one for you.

29

The number of days a guild that actively raids and goes after targets would be willing to have people do this for you and nothing else where they would have toons parked etc. Basically the likeliness that you can get a raid force ready at the spawn time that is reoccurring (another WAG, think Im being generous) 3/7

12 per night and probably drop pretty quick.

All This could all be way off and the numbers might be swollen for the first couple of days but I guarantee they will tapper off quickly. Consider the 8th ring quest which the lead up work can be done in a day, used on multiple characters, sometimes done twice for the same toon, and doesn't require 3 groups to complete only has nightly rollers in the teens. Also people aren't making new epic level bards nearly as quickly.

So maybe expect this to be an issue for a month? Im sure there will be some farming like there is with Ragefire but on the whole much less likely.

In conclusion / TL;DR there are more bard swarming complaints than posts about bard epics. Clearly bards should be banned.