About Spawn variance....

[Chicka]

Dude -+ 48 is the variance, why would we bet against it?

[Valent]

Bleh, you Nilbog, Cyrius, Supreme and Ullalalaaen are right. I fixed my post. Now take my bet.

[Starklen]

Originally Posted by Valent [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Would anyone be interested in betting thier account that the next Vox, Naggy, CT, and Inny spawns happen outside of +/- 48 hours?

I am taking any and all bets.

You get 4 chances to be right! Cant beat those odds

I will even throw in 2 Draco's and 2 Maestros at +/- 12 hours. EC tunnel casinos got nothing on these odds.

Senior guides can bet as well.

You are constantly tripping over yourself and misspeaking about this subject. What the written rules are saying and what Cyrius is saying is that the major boss spawns are 7 days +- 48 hours making for an 96 hour window. It could, therefore, spawn as early as 5 days after a kill and as late as 9. What you are trying to say is that it is 7 days +- 24 hours. What you just offered a bet on is that the variance is longer than both of these supposed 'windows'.

My position has been that while the variance doesn't seem to weight the probability of an early or late spawn equal to a spawn on an interior day, I have witnessed a day 1 spawn.

[Valent]

Originally Posted by Valent [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Would anyone be interested in betting thier account that the next Vox, Naggy, CT, and Inny spawns happen outside of +/- 24 hours?

I am taking any and all bets.

You get 4 chances to be right! Cant beat those odds

I will even throw in 2 Draco's and 2 Maestros at +/- 12 hours. EC tunnel casinos got nothing on these odds.

Senior guides can bet as well.

Best odds in Norrath.

[Chicka]

But it's also pointless. The next 50 spawns could be inside +-24 hrs, but they could also be outside. That's just what happens with probability, its probable, not definite. Betting on it doesn't prove anything.

Now, if you were arguing that the RNG used by the random number generator was flawed such that its distribution was skewed, then that is another matter. If you were arguing that there was insufficient entropy for the seed such that spawns could be predicted, then again that is another matter.

However, gods have not spawned enough on this server to even statistically determine those things - possibly even if we had perfect data.

But lets please let this rest - it's not the point of the thread.

[Valent]

If you are not willing to bet your account, we can lower the ante. I am taking all bets. How can you pass up 8 chances at 50/50 odds?

[Chicka]

Originally Posted by Valent [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you are not willing to bet your account, we can lower the ante. I am taking all bets. How can you pass up 8 chances at 50/50 odds?

There were words in my post.

[Valent]

How about this:

We can bet 1000pp this week. If just one of those 8 bosses spawn outside of my proposed timers you win. If I happen to win (highly unlikely) we can double or nothing in week 2. If I happen to win again in week 2 (even crazier to think that) then we double or nothing again for week 3 and so on and so on. Basically each and every week you have 8 chances to get all your plat back (if I happen to win, highly unlikely) so its a no lose situation for you!!

How can you pass that up?

[Skope]

And yet again we have a bunch of RnFers spewing their crap in the general forums. How many threads has this been that have attempted to provide a solution only to be swamped by these idiots? Can the GMs just flat-out delete any post that's a clear digression to the original topic, please? It seems more ofthese threads get moved to RnF than really needs to happen, because a pack of morons don't understand how forums work. These people are the reason we can't get things done.


Shortened spawn variance simply won't work, and nor is it really classic. For one, shortening the window only invites more poopsockers to join in on the fun(?), and that's the last thing we need. Secondly, it's not classic either. As I've stated before on other threads, the GMs don't wan't (or have flat-out stated) that patch-day respawns won't happen. Shortening the window on the big 4 or 6 doesn't emulate what patch-day spawns did for classic, either. Patch day spawns added a certain level of spontaneity and opportunity for various guilds to join in on the fun and gave everybody a better shot (think less guilds vying for the same target). Shortening the window does neither, and in fact only contributes to the problem at hand.

The consequences of poopsocking have been an increasing number of core players and oldschoolers quitting, an assembly line designed to funnel new recruits until they too get bored and quit, an increased incentive to two-box, and finally a decrease in server morale. I can tell you from personal experience that I've seen a rise in all of the aforementioned and it disgusts me, as it should everyone else.

[Valent]

We are not digressing from the OP, we in fact are telling you guys the mechanics the OP wants are all ready in game. And im willing to bet my mortgage.

Someone bet me any amout of plat or account.