Who can beat Oblahblah?

[pickled_heretic]

Originally Posted by lululalana [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This alone shows how laughably uninformed you are. The only GOP candidate with a snowball's chance in hell of winning the general election is Huntsman, and he's far too moderate and well spoken to win the GOP primary.

come on now, this isn't rnf, don't call me uninformed because you don't agree with me, it makes you look like a fucking retarded shitsucking dumpsterfuckwhore.

you're not one of those people, right?

elections are never about convincing more people to vote for you. instead, it's about convincing more people who already would vote for you but are normally to lazy to do so to get off their lazy asses and vote on election day.

the vast majority of people have already made up their mind and will only ever vote republican or democrat for the rest of their lives. the people who are actually interested in politics in a way that transcends the bipartisan status quo are few and far between, let's call it 5%, and i'm being generous.

a majority of people don't normally vote on election day. after all, voter turnout has been abysmal here in the states for years.

so what is the successful strategy? i say again, why bother going for the 5% that can be convinced with logic when it is far more lucrative to go for the majority of your voter base who already agree with you but are otherwise too lazy to go vote?

why am i saying all this? because the republican party doesn't really need to do anything at all to convince their base to vote this election cycle. unemployment rates alone are pretty historically damning for an incumbent president, even though the presidency has little to do with the unemployment rate. see here:

since World War II, incumbents running for a second full term won when the unemployment rate was falling and they lost when it was going up.

http://catalpacapital.tumblr.com/post/5459369545/13-may-2011-macro-insight

in other words, based on trends beginning well over half a century ago, the republicans need to show up with a warm body (either gingrich or romney or anyone not terribly controversial will do) and the election is theirs. if obama wins, he will be reversing a 70 year trend in election cycles that has not deviated once since it started.