Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

That... that makes no sense. I have no idea how to interpret this. Do you know what a probability distribution is?

Do we need to go through this more slowly?

I know you don't understand it. That is why you keep using averages incorrectly.

Let me go a bit more slowly for you.

In our example, you basically get 6 swings per minute with a 1/12 chance of proccing. It is like rolling a D12 six times in a row, hoping to get a specific number. Let's say a "success" is rolling twelve. Since the fight lasts 2 minutes, that means we get twelve chances to roll a d12.

We are not looking for a set of numbers to roll in a sequence (what are the odds of rolling a 6 and then a 3). This means each dice roll has a 1/12 chance of succeeding equally.

Worst case is you roll the twelve after 12 dice rolls. Best case is you roll the twelve on the first attempt. 1 roll + 12 rolls / 2 = 6.5 rolls on average to get your number. So on average you will proc it roughly half way through the fight.