2020 Post Election MEGAthread

[Lune]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I take it by your silence that you agree with the statement that "Benford's Law is a reasonable method for determining whether fraud in an election occurred, although not where and by whom. Considering the huge incentives for such fraud and the way various statistics in the 2020 election flunk Benford's law, it's very likely that some level of fraud occurred in battleground states, although it's not clear how and by whom".

No, Benford's Law as an appropriate test for election fraud has been debunked. TLDR is essentially that our 2-party system divides voters into 2 halves which differ in statistically significant ways (urban vs. rural population density for one), and further divides them into precincts that vary immensely in size. You have divisions of 400 to 2,700 or more. Smaller precincts will produce more single digits and Biden/Harris precincts (more dense) will have more 3/4/5. The distributions on your blog simply reflect the distribution of precinct sizes.

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you agree that COVID response is an economic issue, then we know theoretically that the best solution to economic problems is to distribute the solution as finely as possible. If people in NY NY want to lock down and people in Rapid City SD don't, who are you to say that either group is wrong? Why is it necessary to force your will on them?

COVID response is an economic and public health issue. The best solution to economic problems is to distribute the solution as finely as possible. However, the best solution to public health problems is to distribute the solution as universally as possible. If Washington DC is excellent at controlling the virus, but Maryland and Virginia are garbage at controlling the virus, DC is just going to get re-infected by all their commuters.

Coronavirus doesn't care about state lines or political divisions, it goes wherever people go, and people in the US move fluidly all over the country. I care that people in Rapid City, SD don't want to lock down because that is a decision which ignores public health experts, who recommend lockdowns when ICU's are full. Note the nuance. Public health experts do NOT recommend lockdowns under normal circumstances; lockdowns can make things worse and sow untold economic carnage. But if ICU's are full, you may have no choice. I live in South Carolina, a Republican state, so it affects me when local governments make the wrong decision.

Also keep in mind many of these economic problems could have been mitigated by a better government response (or dare I say it, universal basic income)

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

There simply is no pandemic. 300,000 covid deaths is 0.1% of the population (and it's likely lower considering the dubious way deaths are counted). Compare this with real pandemics which killed 10-20% of the population.

That's not how pandemic is defined. Classification as a pandemic is based on incidence, not mortality. That's why the 2009 swine flu outbreak was a pandemic.