CORONAVIRUS Death Thread

[Lune]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Lune, are you aware of any studies that have attempted to measure a causal relation between a positive COVID DNA test and actual symptoms? As a scientist I am sure you know that one cannot simply divide deaths by positive tests due to sampling bias, which is why in March Business Insider can say that the global death rate was 5% globally, 11% in Italy, and 1.8% in the US in comparison to the flu at 0.1% while the July CDC Estimate is now 0.65%. Do you know how the CDC is deriving their estimate? They must be trying to correct somehow as it's lower than deaths / tests, but on the other hand motorcycle deaths are now caused by COVID and African livestock and fruits are testing positive so I think it would be hard to get good data.

There is so much noise out there that I'm not even trying to read it all and am just going with my gut feeling that COVID is mostly media panic with very little scientific rigor, that the death rate is likely much lower than 0.65%, and that under 1% is hardly a huge problem anyway. We all die someday and I personally prefer quality to quantity of life, while wearing masks turns us all into unemotional, faceless slaves who can't communicate with each other. John Waters says it well. That said, I would be open to changing my mind if a well designed study showed the CDC has somehow significantly underestimated the rate of death or major symptoms.

Also, JP has a bunch of really funny videos on COVID.

I don't deny there are problems with the current epidemiology evidence, but you have to ask yourself: Who is benefiting from using isolated incidents to spread rumors that the US is mass-counting motorcycle deaths to artificially inflate COVID statistics? And for those who take issue with the evidence, are they substituting superior evidence of their own?

My father in law is an infectious disease specialist who worked with Fauci, has invented vaccines, was the chief of his field at Johns Hopkins, etc and we talk a lot about this. The evidence you actually have access to goes far beyond CDC guidelines, news reports, and youtube videos. We know beyond a reasonable doubt that:

1. The disease has a much higher death rate among vulnerable populations, as high as 10-15% in those who are more than 80 years old with cardiovascular comorbidities
2. It has a genetic-lottery interplay with your blood such that in some individuals it has been responsible for strokes, pulmonary embolisms, brain damage, and blood vessel damage.
3. If you happen to get a bad case, even if you don't die, it will scar your lungs, and you have that for the rest of your life.

By those facts alone I can't imagine how this could be perceived as media panic. There are a lot of people in this country who don't like the way their stocks are performing and want you to get back to work whether it is dangerous or not, regardless of the threat to society's vulnerable population. So you don't necessarily have to have faith in the CDC's estimate of the death rate, you just have to care enough about other people to want to protect them just in case.

If your answer is YOLO, or that the minor interpersonal inconvenience of having to have a mask over your face is too much to bear, that's your choice (for now, usually). I just think it is an unethical one.