Variance (and Skips)

[loramin]

I'm probably the wrong person to answer this, as I've failed multiple math classes in my life, but I think the simplest way to explain it is that the probability doubles (or halves, depending on your point of view) when the mob skips.

Let's say Lodi was killed at 8:00 PM, and so now has a window of 1:00 - 3:00 PM the next day. He skips that window. If you just assume he was going to spawn at 2:00 PM (ie. exactly 16 hours after his death, no variance) then his new window would be 18 hours forward/6 hours back, ie. 7:00-9:00 AM.

Within that window I believe Lodi has roughly twice the chance of spawning as he does in his "extended" window, ie. the full possible window, ie. 6:00-10:00 AM. So from 6:00-7:00 AM he has roughly half the chance of spawning as he does between 7:00-8:00 AM.

But I don't that's actually right, that's too simple. I think it's more like the extreme ends (eg. 6:01 AM and 9:59 AM) have the absolute lowest chance, and as you get closer and closer to 8:00 AM the chances continue to improve, until they peak at 8:00 AM. If you graphed it , I think you'd basically see a half circle (or at least half oval), which touches the x-axis at 6:00 and 10:00 AM, and reaches its highest point at 8:00 AM.

But again, I've failed (and later passed ... but still, I initially failed) Algebra 2, Trigonometry, and Calculus, so I wouldn't even have bothered answering if anyone else had.