Forest Loop

[ryeandi]

You are correct. The chance of the next giant dropping the earring is .4% (1/250). But this is exactly how probability works. If the chance of any one giant dropping the earring on any kill is 1/250, the chance of the earring not dropping on any one kill is 249/250. The chance of not having seen a single earring drop in 450 kills would be (249/250) ^ 450 which is .1647 or about 16.5%. If the earring drop rate per kill is in fact .4% (pointed out above to be in question), 83.5% of players killing 450 Forest Giant Greenwoods will have seen at least 1 earring drop and I would be in the 16.5%.