Math equation for variance

[kgallowaypa]

Originally Posted by Zaela [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Every time point within the window is equally probable.

When possible spawn times within the window have passed, the remaining times are still all equally probable, just with the time that has passed excluded (you could say their probability is redistributed among all remaining times).

1.0 / (TotalTimePointsInWindow - TimePointsThatHavePassed) = ProbabilityPerRemainingTimePoint

No real advantage to looking at it this way.

I follow you, but it depends on which perspective you look at it from. If "Every time point within the window is equally probable.", then you are looking at the probability when the window is not open.

but this does not logically add up to me:

"When possible spawn times within the window have passed, the remaining times are still all equally probable,".

The chance to reach 100% does not disappear if the time has passed, so either way each event seen as pop=yes // pop=no continuously changes the distribution until the last event.

And of course there is no way to beat the RNG, but statistically I heard from a friend that if you wanted to camp something, it would benefit you to sock the mob when the window is around 25% chance in the last few hours if it has not popped because the chance becomes greater as the window closes, versus camping the entire 16 hour. Sure you could get lucky and get a pop on the first TICK...but statistics aside and probability of that event occurring is a huge outlier and a very unusual occurrence, even in RNG world.

If you wanted to take this further, maybe someone could do a series of /random 100 and see if there is a correlation between the quartile ranges 1-24,25-49,50-74, and 75-100. If its a true RNG, there should be no correlation and no bell-curve distribution but who knows, this is a old game.