I'm startled

[JurisDictum]

Originally Posted by Pokesan [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

We're six months out, dial it back.

Yea...but its not as random as you might think. Most the of the data people thought Mitt Romney would win for example. This is because most voters that aren't decided vote something like this:

How is the economy? Good? Vote for the Party currently in office

or

How is the economy? Bad? Vote for the party not in office

Its called something like retrospective voting

But to your point. Mitt lost to Obama -- despite his crap first debate and all the numbers being against him. This is purely due to him being a really shitty candidate for the time. It was just obvious the guy spent his life wearing suits in his mansion and resented people asking for tax hikes. It didn't play well.

So it's possible that Clinton is just too much of an insider pick for 2016, i.e. she could turn out to be a real shitty candidate for the time. My guess is Trump will provide enough incentive for the democratic turn out.