Maybe I do underestimate people's attachment for their current characters, acquired loot etc... but when you see people even making alts on the new server and the population dropping, groups harder to come by etc... I'd say there'd be a steady exit from old blue if not an immediate drop.
Everyone wants to be on a server's rich list, king of the economy, corner the market of something etc. If they didn't find that already, they'll try again on blue v2.0.
New blue server with a new top raiding guild? There'd be much lust for that too.
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