Could "luck" increase probability?

[EchoedTruth]

Originally Posted by Splorf22 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

One of the things that people don't understand is that even though the probability of any particular random event may be low, with enough iterations it will occur. Imagine that everyone in the United States flips a coin. If you flip heads, you are out. If you flip tails, you can stay in. Now suppose we repeat this process 25 times. The probability of flipping a coin tails 25 times in a row is 1:35 million roughly, so there will be some 5-10 people left. These people will then go on Oprah and write books about their fantastic skills at coin flipping.

So if you have a thousand people on the server someone is going to get utterly fucked by the RNG at some point. Someone somewhere is getting 10 charm breaks in a minute, going 0-20 on fungi tunics (wait, that's me), getting 5 mez resists in a row on LB mobs, etc. And conversely someone is having great luck. It's just the way of things, the way of the force.

This is a great explanation of the pure math at work here. I am wondering on a more metaphysical sense if it is possible to tip the scales in one way or the other. I seem to remember Einstein commenting on collapsing probabilities and outcomes. Maybe I'm talking to a crowd far too steeped in the empirical side of things. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[rahmani]

No. Although if the numbers aren't truly random, which none are, it's possible to predict the algorithm. Or to behave in a way that would lead others to believe you had actually discovered the algorithm.

[August]

Originally Posted by EchoedTruth [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

This is a great explanation of the pure math at work here. I am wondering on a more metaphysical sense if it is possible to tip the scales in one way or the other. I seem to remember Einstein commenting on collapsing probabilities and outcomes. Maybe I'm talking to a crowd far too steeped in the empirical side of things. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you are wondering on a metaphysical sense you throw away anything contrived of logic and reason for hocus pocus.

If you start with a false assumption, anything can be true. That's some real math right there.

[EchoedTruth]

Originally Posted by rahmani [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No. Although if the numbers aren't truly random, which none are, it's possible to predict the algorithm. Or to behave in a way that would lead others to believe you had actually discovered the algorithm.

That's kind of what I'm hinting at. AFAIK nothing is truly random, so there are ways to swing things to your favor.

[EchoedTruth]

Originally Posted by August [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you are wondering on a metaphysical sense you throw away anything contrived of logic and reason for hocus pocus.

If you start with a false assumption, anything can be true. That's some real math right there.

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[August]

Let me explain then in layman's terms. Assumption of a false believe to be true can be used with very little rigor to prove that anything can be true.

So we'll take two statements, one false and one true by inverse, and we'll claim them to BOTH be true (since all false statements have a true counterpart).

Statement A = All decent raiders are in TMO
Statement B = Not all decent raiders are in TMO

Then we'll take an obviously false statement:

Statement C = The Easter Bunny lays golden eggs.

Then we can do a little of proofing:

A = TRUE;
B = TRUE

(A || C) = TRUE;

But B is also true, and !B = A, so C must be true, since this becomes

( B! || C ) = TRUE, with B being true and !B must be false.

Therefore, C must be true and the Easter Bunny is in fact shitting golden eggs right now.

As you can see, C can be any argument.

Just something to ponder.

[EchoedTruth]

Originally Posted by August [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Let me explain then in layman's terms. Assumption of a false believe to be true can be used with very little rigor to prove that anything can be true.

So we'll take two statements, one false and one true by inverse, and we'll claim them to BOTH be true (since all false statements have a true counterpart).

Statement A = All decent raiders are in TMO
Statement B = Not all decent raiders are in TMO

Then we'll take an obviously false statement:

Statement C = The Easter Bunny lays golden eggs.

Then we can do a little of proofing:

A = TRUE;
B = TRUE

(A || C) = TRUE;

But B is also true, and !B = A, so C must be true, since this becomes

( B! || C ) = TRUE, with B being true and !B must be false.

Therefore, C must be true and the Easter Bunny is in fact shitting golden eggs right now.

As you can see, C can be any argument.

Just something to ponder.

I'm a newb when it comes to proofs so I'm gonna take your word on that. No idea what (A || C) means, or why ! is attached to B ... :>

[August]

(A || C) means A or C, in logical terms that statement equates to TRUE if A or C is known to be true. In this case, we know that A is definitely true, so it can be said that

(A || C) is true.

the ! symbol is used to mean 'not' or 'the opposite evaluation'.

Statement A and B are 'both true' yet one is the inverse (contradiction).

So, A = !B and B = !A.

So, back to (A || C)

Since A = !B we come back to

(!B || C)

Well, we know that B is true, so !B must be false. This statement, however, was proven to be TRUE just a second ago, which means that C must be true.

Hence, we have proved that C is true with just a false assumption. C could be any statement.

[kenzar]

Do not try and define luck, that's impossible. Instead only try to realize the truth; there is no luck. Luck is just your flawed perception of reality.

[koros]

This thread is going to make a lot of dead physicists roll over in their graves.